Central PA Fall Thread

[EasternUSWX]

Radar must explode later I guess.

[sauss06]

maybe we should all meet to build an Ark... or drink!

[Jns2183]

We could Jerry-rig the empty bottles into a raft

[sauss06]

We could Jerry-rig the empty bottles into a raft

i like it....on your line of thinking, we should go with kegs then!

Moderate rain again here

[Jns2183]

Looking at the radar it seems the bands are lining up to the south along the eastern Appalachians and kinda merging into the wider rain band that has been to the NW of Hbg this morning. It is also doing this right over south central pa.

[EasternUSWX]

CTP upped my forecast as of 2:20 PM for Ship.

This Afternoon: Periods of rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 63. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tonight: Periods of rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 59. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.

Wednesday: Occasional rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 72. East wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Rain. Low around 61. East wind between 4 and 7 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

[Jns2183]

From the 2:34 PM AFD:

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MESO ANAL SHOWS THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH LEE OVER EASTERN

TN...WITH A WARM FRONT FROM SRN VA THRU THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TO JUST

SOUTH OF ACY. SATELLITE SHOWS A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE

FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALL THE WAY INTO THE NERN US. REGIONAL

RADAR MOSAICS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITATION SURGING NORTHWARD

RIGHT INTO THE FCST AREA. LOCALLY THE RAIN IS STRATIFORM IN

NATURE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY ISN`T THAT FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH WITH

DEEP CONVECTION EVIDENT FROM CENTRAL VA SOUTHWARD.

WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE SET UP OF AN ALMOST CLASSIC TROPICAL

SYSTEM-FRONTAL BAND INTERACTION HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO AS THE

MOISTURE AND REMNANTS OF LEE MOVE NORTH INTO A VERY STRONG JET

ENTRANCE REGION THAT HAS SET UP AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROF THAT MOVED

INTO THE GR LAKES. SITUATION IS RIGHT OUT OF JUNKER`S HEAVY RAIN

MANUAL AND IS PRIMED TO YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN

AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS IS GENERALLY THE CASE AT THIS RANGE...EXACTLY WHERE THE

HEAVIEST AMOUNTS END UP FALLING IS STILL NOT KNOWN. SREF ENSEMBLE

FOR 48 HR AMOUNTS OF 4 OR MORE INCHES STILL CENTERS OVER CENTRAL

PA. GEFS TARGETS MORE OF MY NWRN ZONES. NEW NAM PAINTS THE BULLS-

EYE PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVERHEAD STATE COLLEGE.

12Z NAM REALLY INTENSIFIES THE DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING

LATER TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT THE

RAIN REALLY BEGINS TO RAMP UP IN INTENSITY THE DEEPER INTO TODAY

AND TONIGHT WE GET.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HISTORICALLY OUR MOST SIGNIFICANT HVY

RAIN EVENTS COME BY WAY OF TC/FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. NEW

HPC DAY 1-2 GUIDANCE PAINTS A NEARLY 11 INCH BULLS-EYE OVER CENTRAL

PA! FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM STUCK VERY CLOSE TO THEIR

NUMBERS WHICH GIVES MUCH OF THE AREA 2-6 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT

AND TOMORROW.

COMBO OF NNELY SFC WNDS...OVC SKIES AND PERSISTENT RNFL WILL KEEP

OVERNIGHT MINS FROM DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DIURNAL

RANGES BASICALLY 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

ELEVATED INSTABILITY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND AN ANOMALOUSLY

STRONG SSE FLOW ALL POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY

RAINS TO CONTINUE AS THE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM MAINTAINS ITS

CONTROL OVER THE REGION.

THE POTENTIAL ALREADY EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING. IF WE SEE

MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED SMALL AREAS WITH AMOUNTS OVER 10

INCHES...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT AN HISTORIC EVENT.

AS FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

Well that might be one of the more strongly worded AFD's I have seen them post in awhile. They seem excited about getting 11 inches up there way, haha.

[sauss06]

From the 2:34 PM AFD:

Well that might be one of the more strongly worded AFD's I have seen them post in awhile. They seem excited about getting 11 inches up there way, haha.

wow. wow wow

[Jns2183]

Here is the latest guidance from HPC (18Z). So these are from 2:00 P.M. today till 2.00 P.M. Thursday (72 hours). Simply amazing if these pan out. That gradient cannot be fun to forecast with. Cumberland county goes from 6"+ inches to 10"+ just within the county.

[sauss06]

Here is the latest guidance from HPC (18Z). So these are from 2:00 P.M. today till 2.00 P.M. Thursday (72 hours). Simply amazing if these pan out. That gradient cannot be fun to forecast with. Cumberland county goes from 6"+ inches to 10"+ just within the county.

i'm struggling to see the county lines, but doesn't that say 7" in the western part of the county and 6" near HBG?

edit: i really can see the county lines to differentiate ? so i'm probably wrong

[Mahantango]

Well just how much rain will fall till tomorrow morning I live on the Dauphin, northumberland county border next to the Mahantango Creek.

[PottercountyWXobserver]

Here is the latest guidance from HPC (18Z). So these are from 2:00 P.M. today till 2.00 P.M. Thursday (72 hours). Simply amazing if these pan out. That gradient cannot be fun to forecast with. Cumberland county goes from 6"+ inches to 10"+ just within the county.

where did you get these maps? I can't see the entire state with this map, but can i view a state wide QPF map like this?

[Jns2183]

i'm struggling to see the county lines, but doesn't that say 7" in the western part of the county and 6" near HBG?

Carlisle is right on the line between 7 and 8 inches, while the 6 inch mark starts just passed Mechcanicsburg going into Harrisburg. Take the gradients for what there worth being so tight.

[Jns2183]

where did you get these maps? I can't see the entire state with this map, but can i view a state wide QPF map like this?

I downloaded the 72 hr qpf maps off the HPC website in a .kml file format. Just opened it in Goggle Earth, zoomed and rotated to the view I wanted, Checked the precipitation contours I wanted, used a screenshot tool to "cut" that part from my desktop view, then added in the text marks in paint and saved to a .jpeg file.

[Jns2183]

Well just how much rain will fall till tomorrow morning I live on the Dauphin, northumberland county border next to the Mahantango Creek.

From the HPC guidance maps your are looking at around 5" from 2 P.M. this afternoon to 2 P.M. tomorrow, with 6"-7" from now till Thursday's at 2 pm.

[PottercountyWXobserver]

I downloaded the 72 hr qpf maps off the HPC website in a .kml file format. Just opened it in Goggle Earth, zoomed and rotated to the view I wanted, Checked the precipitation contours I wanted, used a screenshot tool to "cut" that part from my desktop view, then added in the text marks in paint and saved to a .jpeg file.

Thanks, I will remember this once I get home, I can't download the software to do it right now because I'm at college and we can't mess with the computers here. Can you give me a summary of what to expect or make a map for northern pa? What does it look like for western Potter county, I'm assuming 4" with a large gradient with eastern potter getting 6-7".

[Jns2183]

where did you get these maps? I can't see the entire state with this map, but can i view a state wide QPF map like this?

Here is a closeup of the Potter County area, I put a dark line rectangle over where Potter County is because of the hard time seeing county lines. 7 - 9", almost 10" is the verdict.

[Mahantango]

2.1" of rain since Monday @4:30pm.

[PottercountyWXobserver]

Here is a closeup of the Potter County area, I put a dark line rectangle over where Potter County is because of the hard time seeing county lines. 7 - 9", almost 10" is the verdict.

Thanks a BUNCH! I'm in the extreme NW part so looks like 6-7" according to this run, man I get to watch places just 30 miles to my east pick up a possible 10" talk about extreme gradient

[Jns2183]

Latest AFD as of 357 pm. Wow is the only word I can think of

000FXUS61 KCTP 061957AFDCTPAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA357 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THEAPPALACHIANS AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE MIDATLANTIC REGION...BRINGING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ANDSIGNIFICANT FLOODING TO THE AREA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...MESO ANAL SHOWS THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH LEE OVER EASTERNTN...WITH A WARM FRONT FROM SRN VA THRU THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TO JUSTSOUTH OF ACY. SATELLITE SHOWS A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTUREFROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALL THE WAY INTO THE NERN US. REGIONALRADAR MOSAICS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITATION SURGING NORTHWARDRIGHT INTO THE FCST AREA. LOCALLY THE RAIN IS STRATIFORM INNATURE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY ISN`T THAT FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH WITHDEEP CONVECTION EVIDENT FROM CENTRAL VA SOUTHWARD.WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE SET UP OF AN ALMOST CLASSIC TROPICALSYSTEM-FRONTAL BAND INTERACTION HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO AS THEMOISTURE AND REMNANTS OF LEE MOVE NORTH INTO A VERY STRONG JETENTRANCE REGION THAT HAS SET UP AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROF THAT MOVEDINTO THE GR LAKES. SITUATION IS RIGHT OUT OF JUNKER`S HEAVY RAINMANUAL AND IS PRIMED TO YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINAMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.AS IS GENERALLY THE CASE AT THIS RANGE...EXACTLY WHERE THEHEAVIEST AMOUNTS END UP FALLING IS STILL NOT KNOWN. SREF ENSEMBLEFOR 48 HR AMOUNTS OF 4 OR MORE INCHES STILL CENTERS OVER CENTRALPA. GEFS TARGETS MORE OF MY NWRN ZONES. NEW NAM PAINTS THE BULLS-EYE PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVERHEAD STATE COLLEGE.12Z NAM REALLY INTENSIFIES THE DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENETIC FORCINGLATER TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT THERAIN REALLY BEGINS TO RAMP UP IN INTENSITY THE DEEPER INTO TODAYAND TONIGHT WE GET.IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HISTORICALLY OUR MOST SIGNIFICANT HVYRAIN EVENTS COME BY WAY OF TC/FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. NEWHPC DAY 1-2 GUIDANCE PAINTS A NEARLY 11 INCH BULLS-EYE OVER CENTRALPA! FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM STUCK VERY CLOSE TO THEIRNUMBERS WHICH GIVES MUCH OF THE AREA 2-6 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHTAND TOMORROW.COMBO OF NNELY SFC WNDS...OVC SKIES AND PERSISTENT RNFL WILL KEEPOVERNIGHT MINS FROM DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DIURNALRANGES BASICALLY 5 DEGREES OR LESS.&&.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...ELEVATED INSTABILITY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND AN ANOMALOUSLYSTRONG SSE FLOW ALL POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVYRAINS TO CONTINUE AS THE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM MAINTAINS ITSCONTROL OVER THE REGION.THE POTENTIAL ALREADY EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING. IF WE SEEMORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED SMALL AREAS WITH AMOUNTS OVER 10INCHES...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT AN HISTORIC EVENT.AS FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS.&&.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE REMNANTS OF TS LEE WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHERAT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITHTHE SYSTEM REMAINS TO OUR WEST UNTIL THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREADHEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WEDNIGHT THEN CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE ONTHURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY FILLS/WEAKENS OVERTHE WEEKEND...BUT REMAINS TO OUR WEST...IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELYREMOVE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THEWEEKEND.NEXT MONDAY APPEARS THE DRIEST DAY OF THE BUNCH WITH THE UPPERTROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA AND SFC WINDS FORECAST TO TURN WESTERLY. ANORTHERN STREAM TROF IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE GREATLAKES BRINGING A RETURN OF SHOWERS FOR LATE TUE INTO NEXT WED.

[The Iceman]

event total(from midnight monday) now up to 2.7 "...with an additional 3" on the way I bet the conestoga floods around here.

[JamieOber]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/25407-wesusedtobe-gets-a-shoutout-from-ctp/

I thought that was cool. He's a great guy, btw. His posts are always must reads.

[The Iceman]

http://www.americanw...utout-from-ctp/

I thought that was cool. He's a great guy, btw. His posts are always must reads.

Yeah Wes is a fantastic met...would love if he ventured in here so we can see what his thoughts are on this for central pa.

[Amped]

Latest AFD as of 357 pm. Wow is the only word I can think of

Congrats WES, he got a shout out.

[EasternUSWX]

I don't see where all this rain is supposed to come from. Looking at radar I might get another .25" total before the rain moves out. Is there supposed to be an explosion of qpf later or something?

[MAG5035]

Been toying around, here's another representation of HPC's QPF forecast using ArcGIS software. I should note that this is just barely scratching the surface of the stuff I can use this program for. Just loaded the shapefile and then customized the QPF colors/ranges and exported a quick map.

(with municipalities layer on)

(just county layer)

[Sunny and Warm]

Been toying around, here's another representation of HPC's QPF forecast using ArcGIS software. I should note that this is just barely scratching the surface of the stuff I can use this program for. Just loaded the shapefile and then customized the QPF colors/ranges and exported a quick map.

(with municipalities layer on)

(just county layer)

What time span are these maps supposed to represent?

Thanks for the nice maps. Easy to read.

[Jns2183]

As of 8 pm about 4.25" in Carlisle

[MAG5035]

What time span are these maps supposed to represent?

Thanks for the nice maps. Easy to read.

The shapefile is HPC's latest 72 hour QPF map effective 7pm this evening through Friday 7pm.

[JamieOber]

2.96 since Saturday as of 8:30