MAG5035 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Are they terminating the Flood Watch or going to renew it? Likely to be renewed/expanded. Actually, looking closely at CTP's unupdated disco it appears that the Sus Valley flash flood watch was only to cover possible convective development thru this evening. They actually let it ride through its expire time of 8pm this eve due to the low flash flood guidance values in the Sus Valley. I expect at least the southeastern 2/3s or more of the CTP coverage area to be included in a flood watch which will cover the the potential for excessive rainfall later tomorrow thru Wednesday with heavier rain more directly associated with the remnants of Lee itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Likely to be renewed/expanded. Actually, looking closely at CTP's unupdated disco it appears that the Sus Valley flash flood watch was only to cover possible convective development thru this evening. They actually let it ride through its expire time of 8pm this eve due to the low flash flood guidance values in the Sus Valley. I expect at least the southeastern 2/3s or more of the CTP coverage area to be included in a flood watch which will cover the the potential for excessive rainfall later tomorrow thru Wednesday with heavier rain more directly associated with the remnants of Lee itself. Thanks. That explains alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR PAZ019-024>028-033>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FORPAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-037. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 The eastern region page has the graphic updated, looks like entire CTP coverage in flood watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Portion of the text from the flood watch: * LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY...THEN THE REST OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCH RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.* SHOULD WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OCCUR...WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING COULD OCCUR. RIVER FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN. FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS COULD LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. LINK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I will be happy as long as I don't see the word "floodmagedon" or any variations mentioned in news stories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I'v noticed the last few runs have shifted ever so slighly west, do you mets think the trend is over or does it continue? Is hurricane Katia having any influence in the path the hvy swath of precip sets up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Off topic but might as well share: my parents in East Texas have had to evacuate as three fires rare converging on their neighborhood. My best friend's sister's house burned down this morning. A fire is quickly approaching my parents-in-law near Fort Hood. The fires in Texas are are so scary and affecting so many people. That bashful fire that's burned hundreds of homes is tragic. No relief in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I must be in some kind of rain hole...0.78" today, everyone else nearby is reporting higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Off topic but might as well share: my parents in East Texas have had to evacuate as three fires rare converging on their neighborhood. My best friend's sister's house burned down this morning. A fire is quickly approaching my parents-in-law near Fort Hood. The fires in Texas are are so scary and affecting so many people. That bashful fire that's burned hundreds of homes is tragic. No relief in sight. It's unbelievable how dry Texas has been, and its not like just a part of the state that is under exceptional drought.. it's practically the entire state. Texas itself likely attributed to Lee never really being able to get its act fully together as the west side of the circulation drew in the dry air from over the state and kept it's southwest side eroded for most of its duration in the Gulf. Hope the fires stay away from your relatives' homes down there. Martin has finally updated most of the CTP disco... so you folks looking for a heavy hitting detailed disco will likely have to wait til tomorrow morning. Sypnosis update: .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --A STALLED FRONTRAL SYSTEM ACROSS SE PA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATETUESDAY INTO WED. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINSOF LEE WILL BRING THE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH THU.THERE IS THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THROUGHOUT THEREMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.-- End Changed Discussion -- Near term addition THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN AREAS EXPIRED AT 8 PM.DID ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS TONIGHTAND TUE. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN WILLCONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN SINCEYESTERDAY.DID CUT BACK ON POPS SOME ACROSS THE NW. DID UP TEMPS SOME FORSOUTHERN LANCASTER CO. ALSO ADJUSTED QPF VALUES UP SOME.DECIDED THAT NOT TO HAVE A WATCH UP TONIGHT WAS NOT GOING TOWORK...GIVEN RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. AS WAS THE CASE LASTNIGHT...A SE FLOW OF HIGH DEWPOINT AIR IS BEING ADVECTED NW.NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH RISK OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT. DID HAVE AREPORT OF A FUNNEL CLD EARLIER AT LNS...BUT NO WIND OR TOUCHDOWNOCCURRED. THAT CELL WAS SMALL.ANYWAY...HARD TO SEE THE COLD FRONT MOVING MUCH FURTHER TO THE SE. Short term addition I ADJUSTED THE TEMPS A LITTLE ACROSS THE FAR SE. Long term addition DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS INTO THURSDAY...BASED ON WHAT I HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...SYSTEM HAVINGBOTH SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND QPF FORECASTFROM VARIOUS LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE OHRFC...MARFC...HPC...ANDOURS. ALSO HAVE RIVER POINTS FCST TO FLOOD. INCLUDED THE NW MTS...AS I AM CONCERN THAT THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LIFT NWINTO THAT AREA ON WED. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE FORMATION OFTHUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN ON WED...AS AREAS FROMM THERIDGE...VALLEY AREA EAST AND SOUTH GET BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR.SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE A CONCERN AGAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 1.6" storm total now with moderate-heavy rain still occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 GFS continues to dominate.. with 5-10 inches of rain in the central 1/3 of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Off topic but might as well share: my parents in East Texas have had to evacuate as three fires rare converging on their neighborhood. My best friend's sister's house burned down this morning. A fire is quickly approaching my parents-in-law near Fort Hood. The fires in Texas are are so scary and affecting so many people. That bashful fire that's burned hundreds of homes is tragic. No relief in sight. i saw videos last night of the fires. I was wondering about your family there. I'll think good thoughts for them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Well KMDT has hit 3.4" as of 7 am since this event began on Sunday evening. Reading the AFD this morning they seem to be talking about 2 distinct periods of heavy rain. One being this afternoon into Wednesday morning and then a second later Wednesday through Thursday afternoon. Any estimates on KMDT rain total by Thursday evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Well KMDT has hit 3.4" as of 7 am since this event began on Sunday evening. Reading the AFD this morning they seem to be talking about 2 distinct periods of heavy rain. One being this afternoon into Wednesday morning and then a second later Wednesday through Thursday afternoon. Any estimates on KMDT rain total by Thursday evening? The ground is already so satured, the rain is pooling up on the ground. ABC27 calling for moderate flooding of the river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Just saw FOX 43 say 2 - 4 inches then a second later saw ABC27 say 3-5 inches with bands of 6-8 possible. Talk about a nice range of numbers, especially for it being rain and not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Just saw FOX 43 say 2 - 4 inches then a second later saw ABC27 say 3-5 inches with bands of 6-8 possible. Talk about a nice range of numbers, especially for it being rain and not snow. Fox is in line with what the GFS and other models say. The guy from 27 (Bret Thackera) said at times we would be in 2" an hour rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Off topic but might as well share: my parents in East Texas have had to evacuate as three fires rare converging on their neighborhood. My best friend's sister's house burned down this morning. A fire is quickly approaching my parents-in-law near Fort Hood. The fires in Texas are are so scary and affecting so many people. That bashful fire that's burned hundreds of homes is tragic. No relief in sight. Sorry to hear this, I was reading about it in the Central subforum. Wish we could share our rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I would like to see where he is getting those 2"/hr rainfall rates from. The one thing I didn't get a chance to see was a rainfall map. I forget how big a viewing area they have, and expect a fairly wide range of totals with this storm within their viewing area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I would like to see where he is getting those 2"/hr rainfall rates from. The one thing I didn't get a chance to see was a rainfall map. I forget how big a viewing area they have, and expect a fairly wide range of totals with this storm within their viewing area. Yeah, don't know? I'm not a fan of his. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 The ground is already so satured, the rain is pooling up on the ground. ABC27 calling for moderate flooding of the river As far as I can tell, the Susquehanna River at Harrisburg has never crested above flood stage more than twice in one year. 1936, 1984, 1994, 1996(kinda, was related to the same January event but one day apart) and 2005 all had two crests above 17'. 2011 has already had two crests above flood stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I mentioned before about the wide range of rainfall totals in the viewing area of Harrisburg TV news stations. This is the latest HPC map for 72 hr qpf as of 8:00 am this morning. I just imported the KML file into google earth and took a screenshot and added the missing qpf demarcations that were out of the screenshot for rainfall. I only put overlays for qpf of 3 or > inches. Congratulations Altoona with a max of 9.55 in. Cumberland county alone ranges from 4 inches to close to 7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 1.95" thru 9:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I can only imagine the parking lots for the PSU game Saturday after 9 inches of rain ending on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 CTP has issued flood warnings for: Yellow Breeches Sherman Creek Swatara Creek Also, the Susquehanna River forecast has been increased in HBG to 20.5' Friday, which is .5" below major flood stage. It's increased 2-3" since this morning and I'd expect it to increase gradually until Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I can only imagine the parking lots for the PSU game Saturday after 9 inches of rain ending on Thursday. No way will they be able to have them open, I'm betting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 No way will they be able to have them open, I'm betting. Hey, best wishes to your family. What a horrible time down there. I truly hope things work out for them. Down here, we seem to be on the outside looking in as far as the outrageous rain totals are concerned....dumb question....does getting less rain down here "lessen" the severity of the Suskie flooding? I mean, all of that water still has to come downstream, even if we "only" get 3 or 3 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 1.21 Sunday night, 1.14 last night, .27" so far today with heavy stuff about to move in. 2.63" so far total. I think i'll see another 3 inches or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 12z GFS maxes out with 16"+ wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Feedback issues with the 12Z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.