PottercountyWXobserver Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 My thought was wet ground might hold temps up some. And hush, Potter. I still have watermelons and other things I want to get to maturity in my garden before frost. Yeah I know what you mean Jamie, we just rounded up the corn and the rest of the here. Well I think at least here we will see the killing freeze, CPT has us reaching 31F tomorrow night as the clouds and precip lift out. Suppose to have a high of 56F tomorrow, that is mighty chilly for this time of year but I'm not complaining, I'l take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 This is a bit OT, but beside the modeled trough in our region, look at the giant modeled ridge in the west. The modeled +20C temps cover an area from Puerto Vallarta, Mexico to southern Alberta. LOL I don't look at the the models much in the summer, but I can't remember ever seeing that. Yeah I'v noticed that, granted this is extreme long range and the models shouldn't really be looked at, but I was bored and saw something exciting. Another thing I'v noticed is the PNA looks to tank into the negatives which usually spells trough along the west coast but instead the models are seeing a massive ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Oh man, in 1989 when I went to school in Pittsburgh I volunteered for the Pittsburgh Great Race. Sept 23 was the date: http://www.erh.noaa....ow.htm#EARLIEST I saw that trace of snow, it happened during the am. That was craziness. Incredible site, love all the statistics they have kept, epecially all the way back to the 1880s . I would give anything to have an accurate data set all the way back to the early 1600s. Can you imagine if we had settled this continent way before the early 1600s and had the technology we have now of all the weather data we could have had! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 9/11 Flags and rainbow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 http://www.timesleader.com/news/Bloomsburg_Fair_falls_victim_to_flood_of_2011_09-14-2011.html bad news from the junction of US-11, I-80, PA- 487, and PA 42. due to the amount of flood damage at the fairgrounds itself and the surrounding sections of bloomsburg, the fair is cancelled for the first time in 157 years. sad day for the city of bloomsburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Incredible site, love all the statistics they have kept, epecially all the way back to the 1880s . I would give anything to have an accurate data set all the way back to the early 1600s. Can you imagine if we had settled this continent way before the early 1600s and had the technology we have now of all the weather data we could have had! Pittsburgh people are fortunate. There is nothing else like that that I found on an NWS site, although State College's major event archives is pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Pretty wicked storm just passed through Harrisburg - power's out to as of now around 5,000 here in Dauphin County. I believe the rain we just had will push MDT to break the 1972 all-time record. It of course missed the airport so only .20" was reported there. It was an impressive storm for sure. Heavy rain with a good bit of wind and constant lightning. A few places must have been struck in my area because I kept hearing fire trucks race back and forth to wherever they were called to. A CoCoRaHS site in Paxtonia reported 1.19" http://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/ViewDailyPrecipReport.aspx?DailyPrecipReportID=bb5662dc-7031-478c-ab7d-510319b82b89 . We would already be well over the record already if so many storms didn't go just north or east of the airport this summer. Here is the report for the year so far at that Paxtonia site http://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/StationPrecipSummary.aspx?station=PA-DP-6&startdate=01/01/2011&enddate=09/15/2011 . The heavy monsoon/downpour north east of the city on August 7 was over this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 000FXUS61 KCTP 151554AFDCTPAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA1154 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2011.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A LARGEAREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN TONIGHT RESULTING INCOOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST FOR THE WHOLE WEEKEND.FLAT UPPER FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING IN A COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY.THE PATTERN COULD THEN STALL AND LEAD TO A WET MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...OBSERVATIONAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TREND OF IMPROVINGWEATHER. MOST PRECIPITATING ECHOES ARE EAST OF STATE COLLEGE ANDWEAKENING. ENHANCED COLD TOPS ARE IN NE PA AND NY NOW. VISIBLEIMAGES SHOW BREAKS IN ERIE COUNTY...MOVING EAST.CEILINGS ARE LIFTING IN MOST LOCATIONS TOO. ONCE THE COLDADVECTION SETS IN EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THEREGION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. EXPECTED WIND 10-15 MPHGUST OVER 25 MPH.THE SUN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE APPEARANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. LATERTHIS AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. BUT CHECKING WITH ITS AGENT...THE SUNWANTS TO APPEAR.IT WILL BE A COOL AUTUMN LIKE DAY. CHILLING TONIGHT.&&.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAST IN THE EAST THIS EVENING AND THEWINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 30SIN THE NORTHERN MTS AND MAINLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ELSEWHERE.VERY COOL MORNING.THE WINDS WILL TAKE TIME TO DIE DOWN AND THE ANTICYCLONE IS TO OURWEST TONIGHT. NOT AN IDEAL FOG OR FADE-AWAY-AND-RADIATE NIGHT.TIMING OF DECOUPLING IS CRITICAL FOR FROST IN EXTREME NORTHERNAREAS. THE SREF SHOWS 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 34F AND NAM4KM AT 12ZHAS ABOUT 34F IN SAME REGION. FROST IS A POTENTIAL ISSUE IN THOSECOUNTIES AND LOCUTIONS. WILL WAIT FOR NEXT GUIDANCE TO JUMP.WE DECIDED TO PUT THE CHANCE OF FROST IN THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS ASTEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR 34F WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS COULDPRODUCE FROST. PEOPLE IN THESE REGIONS SHOULD BE PREPARED TOPROTECT TENDER PLANTS...EXCEPT THOSE PESKY PRODUCTIVE ZUCCHINIS.BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SHOULD BE ASPOT ON DAY...A BIT COOL. WE WILL FADE WAY AND RADIATE NICELYFRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOOKS BETTER FOR VALLEY FOG FRIDAY INTOSATURDAY AND FOR GOOD LOW TEMPS...BUT SREF AND NAM FAVOR FRIDAY AMNOT SAT AM FOR FROST. SEE HOW THAT CHANGES.&&.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSSPA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. SFC PATTERN STILL DOMINATED BY THE WELL-ADVERTISED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLING IN AT THE START OF THEPERIOD. THIS AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE A FEW DAYS OF SIGNIFICANTLYDRIER AND NOTICEABLY COOLER WEATHER. MID/HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERMOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE MAY CREEPWESTWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES - BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BEDRY.TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY. UPPER FLOW IS FORECASTTO FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT LOWER HEIGHTS COULD LINGERACROSS SERN SECTIONS...AND A SLOW DOWN/CONGESTION MAY OCCUR INTHE FLOW OVERHEAD. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN AMPLIFICATION AIDED BY ANINCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER GREATLAKES. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SEEN NEARING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT ORTUESDAY...WITH OTHERS TO FOLLOW. THESE COULD PILE UP AS THEY NEARTHE LOCAL AREA AND RUN INTO THE RIDING DEVELOPING TO THE EAST.THIS COULD LEAD TO A WET END TO THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.&&.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MOST AREAS ARE EITHER ABOUT TO BECOME OR HAVE BECOME MVFR ANDSHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. THERE WILL BE PATCHY AREAS OF IFRTHROUGH ABOUT 1800 UTC TODAY AND ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE VFR BY2100 UTC. THERE WILL BE SOME GOOD WINDS WITH GUSTY WINDS THISAFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS DIE DOWN 3-6 HOURS AFTER SUNSET.OVERNIGHT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOGIN SOME WESTERN VALLEYS NEAR STREAMS AND PONDS...NOT WIDESPREAD ASSTILL JUST POST FRONTAL.IDEAL FLYING WEATHER FRIDAY...VFR.OUTLOOK...FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.SAT-MON...AM VALLEY FOG LIKELY OTHERWISE VFR.&&.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-011.&&$$SYNOPSIS...DANGELONEAR TERM...GRUMMSHORT TERM...GRUMMLONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNERAVIATION...FITZGERALD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Already it has fallen into the mid 40s here in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Hovering at 49°F here in State College at 3pm in the afternoon. Average high temp: 74°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 you can look at 24 hour temperature change and see how much temps have dropped on psu ewall http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DT24/t0.gif but to get a better picture of exactly how much below normal temps are right now also take a look at this also from the psu ewall... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DEPHR/last.html ... hourly departure from normal... pretty significant area of early colder air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Interesting that tomorrow morning lows are forecast lower than Saturday. Certainly the clear sky in the wake of the FROPA could see to that. However, Sat a.m. is only slightly warmer forecast and historically (as per WeatherSpark) http://weatherspark.com/#!dashboard;q=Harrisburg,+PA,+USA, Saturday's date sees lower temps than Friday. Then I saw this in the CPT disco: FRIDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS. AN EARLY AUTUMN-LIKEDAY. AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT CENTERED ALONG THE 305K THETA SFC WILL BE SLIDING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO GENERATE AN AREA OF BKN TO POSSIBLY OVC MID CLOUDS. SHOULD THIS EVENT NOT UNFOLD AS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT POSSIBLE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTH...AS PWATS WILL BE VERY LOW AND ONLY AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH.-- End Changed Discussion -- Side wager on which a.m. comes in lower?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Epilogue to Lee and the devastation that continues in the Chesapeake Bay as a result. Not good. http://www.baltimoresun.com/features/green/bs-gr-bay-storm-20110914,0,4488674.story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Sitting at 40°F already!, how low does it goes she go . I guess it all depends on how much cloud cover decides to show up and if any morning fog rolls in, that always seems to push the temps up a bit. As of right now, Crystal CLEAR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Sitting at 40°F already!, how low does it goes she go . I guess it all depends on how much cloud cover decides to show up and if any morning fog rolls in, that always seems to push the temps up a bit. As of right now, Crystal CLEAR! 38°F currently, although I have noticed some cloud cover. The near full moon helps big time in seeing the cloud cover. I'm going to be bold on this and say we hit 31°F for the low tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Already down to 44.1° here in Lebanon County...figured our low would be 44-45...might drop down near 40°...doubt upper 30s can be reached though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Already down to 44.1° here in Lebanon County...figured our low would be 44-45...might drop down near 40°...doubt upper 30s can be reached though. yeah it's starting to not look good, at least here. Cloud cover has increased fairly good and I'd even say it's mostly cloudy. Temperatures have remained steady and still at 38°F . Stupid clouds go away lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteo Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Since this fall feel to the air is here, i watched the Weather World program the other day and they had their long shots segment on that uses analog forecasting. They made 2 forecasts for december one on tuesdays program and one that was from last month using 2 different analogs. The result using these analogs was for one of the top 20 coldest decembers and above average precipitation with the bullseye of a 6 inch or more snowstorm in PA at 2 major reporting stations to verify. Just thought i would bring this up for us winter and snow nuts out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 41.4° currently...it had leveled off at 43° for most of the night but resumed dropping around 5:30AM. Might drop another degree or so before sunrise. Looks to be a beautiful day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 43.4 is the low mark recorded on my digital thermo. Looks like KMDT bottoms a bit higher at 48 ( and is currently 48 at the airport). Pretty standard minus 5-8 deviation. Surprisingly, Muir AF at Indiantown Gap recorded a low of 49 - they're usually just a tad lower than Middletown. http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMUI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 37.4 was ours in Port Matilda. Frost sensitive stuff in the garden survives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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