NortheastPAWx Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Loop the radar, it's almost back to 81 now. Plus, look down south towards PHL, all the little showers firing in the middle, between the 2 lines. If that fills in, you're in big time trouble. Just saying, don't breathe too big of a sigh for relief yet. I looked at the BGM + CCX radars, I think the expansion of the light stuff to the east is throwing you off. The heavy stuff has not moved at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 I looked at the BGM + CCX radars, I think the expansion of the light stuff to the east is throwing you off. The heavy stuff has not moved at all. Except due north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Except due north... Well yeah, I was moreso talking his non-existant east movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 yeah this whole storm is bad for a lot of areas, but if I had to pick a decent size city that looks to take the worst it would be Binghamton, I'm really worried about them. I wouldn't be surprised to see it over 26ft there, it is already around 21 approaching 22ft and they are going to get hvy rainfall the rest of the morning seeming how they are on the far eastern edge of the training storms, so even with a shift towards the east, they still have to bare the brunt of the storm. by far, you're right binghamton is going to get hammered, and in a very ugly manner at that. if it goes much higher than 26 ft, then you have to worry about the water upsteam, and will the dams further upstream hold. but all that water has to go somewhere eventually. and i know from friends and family back in luzerne county that they're doing evacuations for areas to agnes-level heights as a precaution in case the dikes in wilkes barre don't hold. they'll overtop the ones on the west side of the river from forty fort to near plymouth for sure. this is looking downright ugly all the way up and down the northbranch and main stem of the susquehanna. they're also looking at moderate to major flooding downstream of williamsport on the west branch. latest prediction for harrisburg is 26.2 ft, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 HRRR Composite. 4 am, 7am, 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 That 8am radar prediction is sobering. Reload and start it up again. Hopefully the lull in between will allow EMS in the affected areas to get a handle on the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 That 8am radar prediction is sobering. Reload and start it up again. Hopefully the lull in between will allow EMS in the affected areas to get a handle on the situation. Less intense, yes, but it doesn't matter at this point, anything liquid is bad news. Latest AFD from State College speaks bluntly of what is unfolding. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...-- Changed Discussion --AS POTENT AND SEVERE A FLOODING SCENARIO AS THERE IS FROM THEENDLESS MOUNTAIN REGION OF NORTHEAST PA TO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNARIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BAND OF MODERATETO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FEED OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED INEXCESS OF 8-10" OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 72 HOURS. FLASH FLOODWARNINGS (WITH FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY WORDING) IN EFFECT SINCE LASTEVENING ARE BEING REPLACED BY AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FROM SOUTH TONORTH THIS MORNING AS ONGOING SEVERE FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL HEAVYRAINS PREVENT MUCH IMPROVEMENT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF MY AREA.THE NEARLY STATIONARY...EAST-WEST SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPEDACROSS FAR SERN PENN...AND THE 925 MB FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEARKIPT...ENE TO KAVP WILL LEND ADDITIONAL HELP TO FOCUS THE HEAVIESTRAIN IN THIS REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK. PWAT VALUES IN THIS AREA AREEXCESSIVELY HIGH AND RIGHT AROUND 2.25 INCHES. RAINFALL RATES WILLBE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH PER HOUROVERNIGHT ALONG...AND JUST TO THE WEST THE SUSQ MAINSTEMOVERNIGHT. LOCALLY MUCH HEAVIER RATES /OVER ONE INCH PER HOUR/WILL OCCUR IN TRAINING TSRA ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY..ANDOCCASIONALLY INTO THE MID SUSQ REGION JUST SOUTH OF THE 925 MBFRONT.THIS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE ALREADY SERIOUS AND EXTENSIVE FLOODINGAND FLASH FLOODING ONGOING IN THAT AREA. THE EXTENT OF FLOODING INSOME AREAS...COMBINED WITH THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHTWILL CREATE DANGEROUS/LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONSOF OUR EASTERN CWA.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 The WRF-NMM is worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Swatera Creek at Hershey is 11 hours ahead of schedule. Forecast crest was 20' at 2. pm. As of 3 am it was at 20.17' and rising rapidly still. Harrisburg may hit there next forcecast level of 19.1' 3 hours early at 5 am. instead of 8 am. Level as of 2:30 am was 17.93' and rising at about .51' an hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 At this point, it's beyond ridiculous. Last measurement 1.75" in the ol rain bucket - storm total to this hour 13.25". My mistake - I forgot to add one of my obsx - actual storm total (since Sunday evening =15.25.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Read the latest HPC discussion. New band will set up again a bit west, but still including HBG in it's heavy axis, later this morning with the retrograding low. Looks like another 2"+ today is likely. I'm guessing Agnes's rainfall record will be in serious jeopardy if not broken today in many areas in the susq valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Susquehanna river at Harrisburg is hitting forecast levels 3 hours ahead of time so far and seems to be rising more rapidly each hour. The Swatara Creek right near Hershey Park has already crushed there all-time record of 16.3'. They are at 21.05' at 3:45 am and raising between .5' - .75' per hour. Here is the bad part, its forecasted crest was to be between 3pm and 4pm at only 20.1'. I cannot imagine the damage bill for hershey park when this is all over with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Well yeah, I was moreso talking his non-existant east movement. I know. I wasn't picking on you. It was a tongue and cheek jab at how we missed the heavy rain both times. The daytime firehose gave .60", and the overnight one gave us the exact same amount. Not more than 20 miles west of me got pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Susquehanna river at Harrisburg is hitting forecast levels 3 hours ahead of time so far and seems to be rising more rapidly each hour. The Swatara Creek right near Hershey Park has already crushed there all-time record of 16.3'. They are at 21.05' at 3:45 am and raising between .5' - .75' per hour. Here is the bad part, its forecasted crest was to be between 3pm and 4pm at only 20.1'. I cannot imagine the damage bill for hershey park when this is all over with. Susq at Hbg is currently measured at 18.85' - AHPS now calling for a crest of 28.5 The avatar says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 SPC analysis shows that the 700mb moisture feed has once again disconnected, however, recent frames are trying to link it once again. Another heavy slug of moisture moving up through VA - has eyes on the Susq Vly and points east to the Delaware basin. PA Governor looked like a fool in his press conference - read directly from a ppt slide show and misrepresented that AHPS graphs while doing so. PEMA director was right there and could have done a better job by a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Swatara Creek, mother of god. The all-time record was 16.1', and expected crest is 24.5'. 8.4' difference, more than 50%. How does that even happen? Hershey Park's insurance bill will be staggering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Very sad to hear that 2 Bison at Zoo America in Hershey Park had to be euthanized - they couldn't get them out of the rising flood waters Enhance IR has a grim picture painted for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 SPC analysis shows that the 700mb moisture feed has once again disconnected, however, recent frames are trying to link it once again. Another heavy slug of moisture moving up through VA - has eyes on the Susq Vly and points east to the Delaware basin. PA Governor looked like a fool in his press conference - read directly from a ppt slide show and misrepresented that AHPS graphs while doing so. PEMA director was right there and could have done a better job by a long shot. It is going to reconnect. The Low will be occluding even more. Katia is Still chugging along moving 10 degrees West of Due North as of 5am. That piece of energy diving in the southeast right now is also forcing the moisture feed to start coming in with a more westerly component off the ocean, along with the little added push from Katia. This will undercut the firehose setup around Philly and restart one in our area, which we drift West today instead of East due to the influence of Katia, and the occkyded low with a negatively tiled trough. That is just my humble amateur opinion though, haha. I try to learn more as time permits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Very sad to hear that 2 Bison at Zoo America in Hershey Park had to be euthanized - they couldn't get them out of the rising flood waters Enhance IR has a grim picture painted for us. haha, I was just about to edit my post saying the enhanced IR, and especially the WV loops on E-wall show what I am talking about with an elegance I unfortunately do not have. Also, until Katia starts to move East of North, that North Atlantic Ridge won't break very much, if any at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 700 mb - close to a reconnect 850 mb moisture transport PWAT values still over 2" All, FTF (for the Flooding) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Reports out of Zoo America are even grimmer than I had heard. So many died by drowning. Hershey will have to answer to a very very angry and frustrated public over this cruelty (calling it what it is) I knew the danger, the media warned of it for the past two days - plenty of time to get those poor creatures to safer environs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Reports out of Zoo America are even grimmer than I had heard. So many died by drowning. Hershey will have to answer to a very very angry and frustrated public over this cruelty (calling it what it is) I knew the danger, the media warned of it for the past two days - plenty of time to get those poor creatures to safer environs. What are you hearing? I can't believe they opened to the general public Wednesday morning at 10 am. It is ridiculous. They were getting pounded when they opened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Heavy rain falling again. My storm total so far is 11.24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Saw pictures of Hershey park at 14', but what kind of damage to you think 24.5' will bring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 What are you hearing? I can't believe they opened to the general public Wednesday morning at 10 am. It is ridiculous. They were getting pounded when they opened. Eyewitness reports on ABC TV27 - neighbors reporting - heard the coyotes howling as they drowned! The Bison - one drowned, one euthanized. To be fair, I'm sure the workers there are devastated, but without orders or logistical resources to move them - they probably couldn't until it was too late. I know the Bison story is factual because they showed footage. The coyotes are only public report at this hour. The fact that they opened is amazing - at 10 I was considering leaving work as the AHPS just kept going up and roads started to close at an alarming rate. Hershey is all about the money of course - Milton must be spinning in his now very soggy grave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Will be interesting to see if the section of the swatara creek Hershey was diverting with 2 large pipes for a construction project played any role in the swatara breaking it's all-time record by 50%. Think of financial consequences of that for a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Looks like the 700mb moisture feed is now reaching over to feed into the approaching Katia. Of course, she'll spin it up and spit it out. Likely moreso over 40 North latitude. The firehose from the lower Atlantic may finally be shut down - but too late to save us from a true disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 No such luck, look at radar returns due south explode with yellow and oranges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 The feed from the Atlantic will become more NNW and NW as day continues. This band forming now should slowly drift west as warm front pushes into area. LP is occluding but associated cold front is basically stationary. Southern portion of front should slowly move east today, but not northern area. Cold front will be become more and more bent like ")" but tilted left 30 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 NWS - State College IF THERE IS ANY GOOD NEWS THIS MORNING...IT`S THAT THE STATIONARYBAND OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WHICH HAD EXTENDED FROM EASTERN VA AND THE DELMARVA REGION NORTHWARD TO THE ENDLESS MOUNTAIN REGION OF NE PA AND INTO NEW YORK STATE HAS FRACTURED INTO SEVERAL LINES OF WEAKER SHOWERS BRINGING A MUCH NEEDED LULL IN THE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IT`S FAR TOO LITTLE TOO LATE AS EXTREME FLOODING IMPACTS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO BECOME KNOWN THIS MORNING. GIVEN CONTINUED RUNOFF...CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MY EASTERN THIRD OF COUNTIES. MODEL CONENSUS BACKS 1.5" PW BACK INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PA LATER TODAY...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BACK INTO THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. HOWEVER THE 2"+ PW WHICH FED EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINS OVER EASTERN PA HAS NOW SHIFTED TO TO COAST WHICH IS ALSO A POSITIVE SIGN. STILL...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS UNWELCOME AT THIS POINT. MY QPF GRIDS DO SHOW AN ADDITIONAL 0.75" TO 1.5" ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXTENT OF FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...COMBINED WITH THE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE DANGEROUS/LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND FILLING UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP MOIST AND OCCASIONALLY SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL PA THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WOULD ADD INSULT TO INJURY OVER THE EAST. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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