r-ville Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Water vapor shows two things that stand out to me. 1) we're not done by any stretch, we will get more rain tonight 2) trough going negative, fetch increases frm the S and E, hits terrain of the Apps, orographic lift assists. More trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 HRRR looks really ugly for us later... That is awful. The forecast for the Susq. up here keeps getting upped. Not good news for here or you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 The cells forming down south to east of the main plume have started moving more NNW well the main plume still chugs along north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 looks like round 2 is starting to build... looks like york/harrisburg/lancaster are going to be the areas to get nailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 looks like round 2 is starting to build... looks like york/harrisburg/lancaster are going to be the areas to get nailed Yeah. Weather World out of PSU is calling for 2-4" with localized areas of 6"+ in basically the same area that got hammered today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 So glad ABC27 in Harrisburg says spotty showers overnight/tomorrow/through Friday. Good to know, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 So glad ABC27 in Harrisburg says spotty showers overnight/tomorrow/through Friday. Good to know, guys. i swear the apocalypse could be on the way and they would find a way to downplay it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Did Eric F leave? They introduced a new guy today and I havent seen him (Eric) lately. Granted I dint watch all too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Pouring here again. A few tenths of an inch and there is muddy water rushing down our street already....gonna be a long night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 pretty strong wording in the new flash flood warnings BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 700 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... DAUPHIN COUNTY... LANCASTER COUNTY... LEBANON COUNTY... YORK COUNTY... * UNTIL 100 AM EDT THURSDAY... * AT 656 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES AND RAIN GAGE REPORTS INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING OVER DAUPHIN...LANCASTER...LEBANON AND YORK COUNTIES. THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE WARNED AREA. NUMEROUS ROADS ARE CLOSED...AND MANY WATER RESCUES AND EVACUATIONS HAVE TAKEN PLACE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 20z HRRR continues to target the same areas that got slammed today with this building wave coming out of the south. Really can't imagine the flooding carnage that has already taken place in the Sus Valley today. Something I had noted to myself this morning (and something CTP had mentioned in their disco) was fact that it was evident on wv imagery that the primary moisture fetch had made a jump east enough to point the focus for the excessive rainfall to the Sus Valley instead of what had been forecast by most modelling to be the central counties the last couple days. GFS was actually the model that came around to the further east axis last night when the NAM was still way west. Couldn't be much worse of an alignment from an overall basin flooding perspective with the axis of max rainfall right up the gut of the Susquehanna river basin. Up in BGM's region some points are forecast to be at or near the June 2006 flood levels, and that one tops the charts in a few places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 All FFW from Lancaster County up to Binghamton have the same wording. KBGM up to 6" on the day. Looking at the river, Swatara @ Hersey at 17.1' (1.1" above Record crest) and still a bit ahead of forecast. Loyalsock creek approaching record crest now, will exceed shortly. Towanda Creek @ Monroeton. Something funny with the reading. seems to level off in an unreasonable fashion but suddenly jumped to a reading 2.3" above record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Still raining...Water is up to the bridge deck in Montourville. Route 87 closed. They have the national guard in already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Still raining...Water is up to the bridge deck in Montourville. Route 87 closed. They have the national guard in already. wow incredible...chances are it only gets higher too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Look out Hazleton. Pretty classic ingredients for heavy rain right now. Low level convergence, mid level convergence too where strong se-sse jet meeting up with more ssw winds behind the 925-850mb fronts. You then throw in the lift from jet entrance region and boom. Not to mention a little orographic help too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Hasn't rained in Harrisburg for a bit. But apparently quite a few animals died today at Zoo America due to flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 wow incredible...chances are it only gets higher too This was the railroad bridge. About 100 yards downstream around noon. The person in the pic is a friend. not sure if he wanted his picture posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Look out Hazleton. Pretty classic ingredients for heavy rain right now. Low level convergence, mid level convergence too where strong se-sse jet meeting up with more ssw winds behind the 925-850mb fronts. You then throw in the lift from jet entrance region and boom. Not to mention a little orographic help too. Well now, this got my attention as I'm only 15 miles south of Hazleton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 event total now up to 5.4" after the last heavy shower...looks like a small break then more to come downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 WOW at the current radar! The radar keeps filling in over the areas that have been already pounded, I'm so jealous right now. I wish no harm on anyone but I def wish I was apart of this weather anomoly that likely only happens once a century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Well now, this got my attention as I'm only 15 miles south of Hazleton. Not sure how long or transitory this band will be, but it could last a few hours and really dump on your mountainous locale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 It just absolutely poured in Lebanon for about 30 minutes. Can't imagine that will help things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 At least it is sort of east of the areas that got hit bad earlier, but the eastern most areas that got hit earlier are getting hit now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Nevermind, rain pouring now. Where can I get up-to-date gauge totals for KMDT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mahantango Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 At least it is sort of east of the areas that got hit bad earlier, but the eastern most areas that got hit earlier are getting hit now. But a lot of the runoff it will make it into the Susquehanna River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Not sure how long or transitory this band will be, but it could last a few hours and really dump on your mountainous locale. Thanks for the analysis! We've picked up 6.25" since Sunday night/Monday morning, but was spared the onslaught that areas to our west received today. Flooding in my immediate vicinity is minimal at the moment, but any prolonged period of heavy rain, and I'm sure that will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 It just absolutely poured in Lebanon for about 30 minutes. Can't imagine that will help things. Insanity here NE of Lebanon. Have to imagine we are working towards 9" for the event. Our road is flooded as badly as I've ever seen it and there is 4-6" of water pooled in most of the yard, right up against the foundation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Look out Hazleton. Oh hai. Pretty classic ingredients for heavy rain right now. Low level convergence, mid level convergence too where strong se-sse jet meeting up with more ssw winds behind the 925-850mb fronts. You then throw in the lift from jet entrance region and boom. Not to mention a little orographic help too. Wonderful...and if this rides up into W-B we'll have huge trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Nevermind, rain pouring now. Where can I get up-to-date gauge totals for KMDT? http://waterdata.usgs.gov/pa/nwis/rt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 I can't imagine what I am going to wake up to tomorrow. The rain is just come down in buckets right now. The damn siren has being going non stop for the past 15 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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