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Central PA Fall Thread


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CTP a little behind the times? lol

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO /AT THIS TIME/ CONTRIBUTING TO THE LONG-RANGE MODEL FORECAST TURN OF HURRICANE IRENE TO THE NE AS ITAPPROACHES THE U.S. COAST NEXT WEEKEND. BUT ERRORS IN FORECASTTRACKS CAN BE SIGNIFICANT AT THIS RANGE...SO WILL CONTINUE TOMONITOR. FOR NOW...KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MAINLY EASTERN ZONES NEXTWEEKEND.

Katia CTP Katia.

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7dayfcst.jpgLate

Afternoon

tsra40.jpg

Chance

Tstms

Hi 86 °FTonight

nra60.jpg

Showers

Likely

Lo 69 °FLabor

Day

shra100.jpg

Heavy

Rain

Hi 76 °FMonday

Night

ntsra90.jpg

Tstms

Lo 58 °FTuesday

shra60.jpg

Showers

Likely

Hi 70 °FTuesday

Night

nshra60.jpg

Showers

Likely

Lo 57 °FWednesday

shra60.jpg

Showers

Likely

Hi 67 °FWednesday

Night

nshra60.jpg

Showers

Likely

Lo 58 °FThursday

shra50.jpg

Chance

Showers

Hi 72 °F

Bleak outlook. Very similar to Spring.

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what is exactly up with that second area of heavy rain right over us Wednesday night? What causes that?

That run of the GFS def seems to bring whats left of Lee right up over the area, which looks like what that heavy rain area is associated with. It's looking like a very wet week for sure with the potential for flooding issues, but I"m a bit suspect of that stalled area of excessive rain the 18z GFS has. Might be some kind of convective feedback issue, but then again with how stagnant precip movement could be as Lee slowly makes its way north, we could see a corridor where very heavy rain trains over the same region and makes for those ridiculous totals. Gonna be something to keep a close eye on the next couple days. If what's left of Lee manages to ride up into central PA later in the week, it's likely that flood watches will be needed for most of the area after the heavy rainfall thats shaping up tonight thru Labor Day.

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