nzucker Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 54/53 LOL, forget it, he has little credibility. Funny how he gets smacked down immediately by Scooter. Coastalwx is the one to listen to all 4 seasons. Some nice cool,weather ahead Mike. I wouldn't be surprised if we top a half a foot of rain by the weekend, perhaps more. ORH sitting at +2.6 for the month. More warm temps coming in the longer range with a moderating NAO and the westerlies locked in Canada. September should finish 2-3F above normal for most SNE climate sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 54/53 LOL, forget it, he has little credibility. Funny how he gets smacked down immediately by Scooter. Coastalwx is the one to listen to all 4 seasons. Some nice cool,weather ahead Mike. I wouldn't be surprised if we top a half a foot of rain by the weekend, perhaps more. I'm not saying cold polar air by any means, but with the high building down from Canada, Saturday and Sunday look nice. Friday will be cool, but dews could be in the low 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 ORH sitting at +2.6 for the month. More warm temps coming in the longer range with a moderating NAO and the westerlies locked in Canada. September should finish 2-3F above normal for most SNE climate sites. If we had the 500mb pattern that the euro ensembles show in the 11-15 day during this winter, I would swallow an uzi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 In other news, had a dream of very early snow this year and early ski area openings. Dreams come true. Fairytales Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 ORH sitting at +2.6 for the month. More warm temps coming in the longer range with a moderating NAO and the westerlies locked in Canada. September should finish 2-3F above normal for most SNE climate sites. I don't care. They were hot yesterday while here it was rainy and low 70's. I probably won't get out of the 50's today, cool and rainy for the balance of the work week. We'll see our first frost soon. Long range forecasting is as accurate as your forecasts, not very. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 If we had the 500mb pattern that the euro ensembles show in the 11-15 day during this winter, I would swallow an uzi. Widespread warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I'm not saying cold polar air by any means, but with the high building down from Canada, Saturday and Sunday look nice. Friday will be cool, but dews could be in the low 60s. I know you weren't. You are a professional meteorologist. You're very measured in your approach and that is why I pay attention to you and not wannabees.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I know you weren't. You are a professional meteorologist. You're very measured in your approach and that is why I pay attention to you and not wannabees.lol I bet CoastalWX agrees with me 100%: September will finish well above normal in New England. The long-range pattern shown on modeling is not one of cold departures. Analogs show that a strengthening Nina leads to warm temperatures in the Northeast. 2007 was the warmest October on record at KNYC, and that was a similar event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Fairytales It'll be nice when you flip to Winter Blizz. Then I won't feel like puking evrytime I read one of your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 FWIW I think September will finish above normal, but how much above normal is a little questionable. Some of this may be tropical "noise"....basically tropical systems either enhancing ridging in the east, or recurving systems that pull polar air into SNE. It's not clear cut imo how much above normal because I could see us not being much above normal at all, or the final two weeks could be a torch if any tropicals try to enhance ridging over the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I bet CoastalWX agrees with me 100%: September will finish well above normal in New England. The long-range pattern shown on modeling is not one of cold departures. Analogs show that a strengthening Nina leads to warm temperatures in the Northeast. 2007 was the warmest October on record at KNYC, and that was a similar event. Well that settles it then. You have the crystal ball. Perhaps you'll tell us all what stocks to by and sell this week. I put zero stock in any forecast outside of a 3-5 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 FWIW I think September will finish above normal, but how much above normal is a little questionable. Some of this may be tropical "noise"....basically tropical systems either enhancing ridging in the east, or recurving systems that pull polar air into SNE. It's not clear cut imo how much above normal because I could see us not being much above normal at all, or the final two weeks could be a torch if any tropicals try to enhance ridging over the east. I think the Nina analogs suggest that warmth returns in the last two weeks of the month. I know Will mentioned this: Nina falls tend to be warmer than normal in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Widespread warmth? Flow is zonal with a PV west of AK and another in the Davis Straits. I mean who cares right now, but I was kind of laughing to myself when I saw this. Besides, it's nice to have a + NAO now as the nature of the NAO would argue that we dip as we head into winter. Just the way these things cycle, but of course it doesn't mean we have to dip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I'm not saying cold polar air by any means, but with the high building down from Canada, Saturday and Sunday look nice. Friday will be cool, but dews could be in the low 60s. Torrrcchh!!! Positive temp anomalies in September are meh to me ... avg highs at GYX are 74F today falling to 64F by end of month. A +8 day isn't too torcherous at all. Glad that the horrible summer months have gone by the wayside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I think the Nina analogs suggest that warmth returns in the last two weeks of the month. I know Will mentioned this: Nina falls tend to be warmer than normal in the Northeast. Yeah they do...I think -PDO falls and Ninas usually argue for warmth with sometimes a quick change of temps by mid to later November...especially if the NAO cooperates. Most models do try to warm up the northern tier by later in the month. What I meant was that we could have another cool shot later next week, if any TC tries to recurve and pull a 2-3 day cold shot into the northeast. That may put a spin into how above normal we get. Also the NAO may try to dip again and while it doesn't have a strong correlation in September...it may try to cause troughing in the northeast. The thing is if we have troughing this time of year...especially to our west, it causes warmer more humid days which bring up the nighttime lows and that's how we rack up big + departures. So yeah I think September ends up above normal everywhere, I'm just a little unsure as to how warm it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 It'll be nice when you flip to Winter Blizz. Then I won't feel like puking evrytime I read one of your posts. Will and Scooter have both told you to prepare for a much above normal month of September and possibly October. But yet you still cliam it's been a below normal summer and that it hasn't been warm so far in September. You have lost all credibility this summer. Honestly. The snickers are coming from many different directions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 ORH sitting at +2.6 for the month. More warm temps coming in the longer range with a moderating NAO and the westerlies locked in Canada. September should finish 2-3F above normal for most SNE climate sites. Guess you could have stayed in Dobbs Ferry for this. 54.7/53 4.21" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Euro lost the cool shot this weekend. Nothing but humidity now after the warm front lifts back north tomorrow night Humidity shumidity.......who cares about that when it's 65*? It's time to call a spade a spade, Kevin. Cool, wet weather is what it is. 54.6/53 4.19" Today is cool and wet..tomorrow the same ..After that..it's not Sorry Mike. Deal with it Read the AFD's..not the zones... This means humidity WED NIGHT AND THU... FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WED NIGHT AND THEN INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THU. SHOULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY GIVEN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE/WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT AND FRONTAL SCALE FORCING If you look through this, Kevin, my comment was essentially "who gives a sh*t about humidity when the temps are cool"? 54.8/53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 In other news, Land O' lakes Wisconsin got down to 30 this morning and the first snow advisory went out last week in Montana I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 In other news, Land O' lakes Wisconsin got down to 30 this morning and the first snow advisory went out last week in Montana I believe. You are buttering us up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Glorious rains. 0.25"and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Glorious rains. 0.25"and counting. Good luck. Just some drizzle remaining here at this point. 54.9/54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 61/56 gusty ne winds, the one day cool down feels awesome after the torch, more warmth on the horizon, so today will be enjoyed ~major overseeding today at all properties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 57/55, don't remember the last time we had a day this cool, probably early June. We'll be lucky to make 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 57/55, don't remember the last time we had a day this cool, probably early June. We'll be lucky to make 60. I'm guessing we will break 60--maybe as high as 62. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Good luck. Just some drizzle remaining here at this point. 54.9/54 Yeah, but you made up for it last week with Irene. I only saw like 2" from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Will and Scooter have both told you to prepare for a much above normal month of September and possibly October. But yet you still cliam it's been a below normal summer and that it hasn't been warm so far in September. You have lost all credibility this summer. Honestly. The snickers are coming from many different directions 06z GFS shows the warm front advancing northwards quickly at 72 hours, with no areas of the CONUS seeing 850mb temperatures below 10C: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Sun breaking out in GC. 56.2/55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Sun breaking out in GC. 56.2/55 What are your rain totals between Irene and yesterday? It's been a great stretch if you're a mushroom. I've never seen so many varieties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I'm guessing we will break 60--maybe as high as 62. Today's high depends on how you record daily temps. I think many places were well above 60° until around 0200 when the front came through. If you go midnight to midnight, I think that would be the high and if go 0700 to 0700, this afternoon's temp would be the high. More of the cool and less of the warm for me please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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