Rainshadow Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Without you getting into trouble with the PGA Tour, are you saying you believe the models may be too far west?? Yeah they may too far west, I always worry about the fall line being the flash or ignition point. Even if they are correct the headwaters of the Schuylkill and Lehigh come into play and we have to think about Cecil County with the Susquehanna. The PGA Tour told me not to play scheduled tour stop courses anymore, they say I'm doing too much damage to the rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I'm not looking forward to this week. I'm a little late here, but great overnight discussion . A lot of interesting points brought up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Yeah they may too far west, I always worry about the fall line being the flash or ignition point. Even if they are correct the headwaters of the Schuylkill and Lehigh come into play and we have to think about Cecil County with the Susquehanna. The PGA Tour told me not to play scheduled tour stop courses anymore, they say I'm doing too much damage to the rough. having seen you play, I agree that the fairways should be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 having seen you play, I agree that the fairways should be safe. So are the greens, no ball marks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Do we need a OBS thread? Or change the title? .80" already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Do we need a OBS thread? Or change the title? .80" already start an obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 So are the greens, no ball marks. seems like thats how it is always. I know at my course your a liability standing under a tree with golf balls. In the fairway you might as well just continue to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 start an obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 it almost looks like se pa and nj get into some kind of subsidence with the front to the west and katia to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 BTW, can't discount F0 tornado threat on Wednesday and Thursday across our region or Central PA thanks to Lee's remnant circulation. Don't think it'll be widespread but the strongest of showers could drop a spin up or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Any thoughts what its suppose to be like on wed/wed night. Hit or miss showers and t-storms or more widespread rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 Any thoughts what its suppose to be like on wed/wed night. Hit or miss showers and t-storms or more widespread rain? all depends where the front sets up. Obviously the further west the drier it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 all depends where the front sets up. Obviously the further west the drier it will be. you mean east right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 all depends where the front sets up. Obviously the further west the drier it will be. There will be decent fetch of tropical moisture off the Atlantic. We might be more hit/miss scattered showers/storms but it won't be like Central/Western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 you mean east right? no, that front is suppose to move back west. The further west that front is, which is suppose to be in central pa, the drier we will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 no, that front is suppose to move back west. The further west that front is, which is suppose to be in central pa, the drier we will be. Okay, I agree. I misunderstood the intent of your message. I guess I need to drink more heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 euro, is 2-2.5 for the region...2.5-3 from abe rdg lns on west and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 There will be decent fetch of tropical moisture off the Atlantic. We might be more hit/miss scattered showers/storms but it won't be like Central/Western PA. What's your definition of C PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Looks like NJ, especially western / NW NJ will be riding the line between excessive rainfal and just a good drenching between now and Thursday while central and much of eastern PA are in the qpf bullseye. At least that is what most model data and current sat and radar suggest. Of course when dealing with a stalling front and possibly even a retrograding one its always tricky to pinpoint those cut off areas exactly. Also the secondary effects of Katia passing well east off us but perhaps beiing in or near a western subsidence zone need to be considered. Obviously flood risk is extremely elevated per past months rains so going to be dicy for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I'm kinda surprised at the lack of QPF so far today for much of central and eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Let's see if the NWS disco agrees with my previous thoughts at all. From State College SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING TUESDAY AS THE SHORT RANGE MODELS START HINTING AT THE BEGINNINGS OF AN EXCESSIVE RAIN EVENT. THE DEEP GR LAKES TROF DRAGS THE REMNANTS OF LEE NORTHEASTWARD AND FUNNELS THINGS RIGHT INTO PA OVER THE ENSUING COUPLE OF DAYS. OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS GIVE CUMULATIVE QPF AMOUNTS OF 6-13 INCHES OVER A WIDE AREA BETWEEN TUES AND THURS. COORD WITH HPC SHOWS 6+ INCH QPF BETWEEN TUES AM AND WED EVE. GEFS SHOWS A SURGE OF ANOMALOUS PWAT...+1-3 STD DEV BEGINNING TO MOVE IN LATER IN THE DAY TUES. BIGGEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT SEEMS TO BE LINING UP FOR LATER TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THURS. GEFS SHOWS A GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF 48 HR RAINFALLS OF AT LEAST 4 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU WED NIGHT AS A DEEP ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW GETS REPLACED BY AN ANOMALOUS SSE FLOW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKE WHAT ARE BEING OUTPUT IN THE GUIDANCE WOULD LEAD TO SOME PRETTY SERIOUS FLOODING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 15F OR SO BELOW NORMAL AS THE MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS...BATTLES WITH THE EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 00Z NAM/GFS AND EC ALL INDICATE A VERY RAINY PERIOD ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR VARIATIONS IN PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...THE SREF CONTAINS U-WIND ANOMALIES OF ABOUT -3 ST DEVIATIONS WHILE THE V-WIND ANOMALY IS A HEFTY PLUS 3-4 AIMED RIGHT INTO CENTRAL PENN. RAINFALL DURING THE 24-36 HOURS THROUGH 16Z THURSDAY COULD TOP 4 OR 5 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENN AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATION PWAT AIR /OF APPROX 45-50MM/ IS TRANSPORTED NNWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN VIA THE PERSISTENT ANOMALOUS LLVL FLOW. DEEP UVVEL BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KT JET TO OUR NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS TO CREATE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN- MAKING MACHINE. WILL BE WAITING AT LEAST FEW MORE MODEL CYCLES TO EXAMINE TRENDS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP AXIS BEFORE HOISTING ANY ADDITIONAL FLAGS FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 What's your definition of C PA? normally, 81 and west but I think heaviest of this stays west of 99/220. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 normally, 81 and west but I think heaviest of this stays west of 99/220. 220 is from Altoona to Williamsport, so you must see that as the axis for heaviest rain, with quantities falling off 75 miles either side? I can buy that based on radar. Interested in seeing what Mt Holly says in the next disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 220 is from Altoona to Williamsport, so you must see that as the axis for heaviest rain, with quantities falling off 75 miles either side? I can buy that based on radar. Interested in seeing what Mt Holly says in the next disco. http://kamala.cod.edu/pa/latest.fxus61.KPHI.html BTW, I think we still have a shot at localized flash flooding on Wed/Thu and some spots could end up with 3-4" before we're all done but that's more localized in nature and less widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I'm kinda surprised at the lack of QPF so far today for much of central and eastern PA. We're actually making that up right now. We got 1.15 then not much this morning/mid-afternoon, but have got .52 in about the last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 http://kamala.cod.ed...xus61.KPHI.html BTW, I think we still have a shot at localized flash flooding on Wed/Thu and some spots could end up with 3-4" before we're all done but that's more localized in nature and less widespread. Thanks for the disco. I'm sure Mt Holly is right, but I'm not seeing that front move a whole helluva lot. I wonder if it ever clears the FA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 looks like we're seeing a bit of a shift on the 18z NAM east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 looks like we're seeing a bit of a shift on the 18z NAM east Yea the 15z srefs came east some also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Thanks for the disco. I'm sure Mt Holly is right, but I'm not seeing that front move a whole helluva lot. I wonder if it ever clears the FA. Probably gets to AC-Dover or something like that before it comes back north. JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Yea the 15z srefs came east some also Doesn't look like an E shift to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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