phlwx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Euro brings 3-6" to most of PA from Lee. This is one Lee that's not welcome around here. We'll gladly take Cliff...we'll take Lee From Brookhaven...we just don't want Tropical Storm Lee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Getting wetter. HPC's newest qpf map shows Central and Eastern PA getting 3-7 inches over the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 If the 06Z GFS is anywhere near right with 3-5 inches in the Leigh and Delaware headwaters, there might be an historic flood on the Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Are we setting up for 1955 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Getting wetter. HPC's newest qpf map shows Central and Eastern PA getting 3-7 inches over the next 5 days. This map is more realistic. Again, can you say Agnes Redux? Parsley I was hoping to be wrong this time but this map is not good news for us. I hope PEMA is watching this storm carefully and I would be considering a state of emergency if I was the Governor early next week. Wilkes Barre and Harrisburg may experience severe damage from flooding along with the smaller boroughs along the Susquehanna. The poor Chesapeake Bay will get another shot of fresh water intrusion and the fishing industry will take another hit. For us, SOS as before. The Perky, Schuylkill, Neshaminy, Delaware, Passaic, and Raritan and all their tribs will be flooding again. Just plain nasty. Federal Disaster should be declared if this indeed comes to light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Haha that HPC map is "hard" looking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Haha that HPC map is "hard" looking! I thought the same thing. Shows where some of our minds are! All joking aside, this has the potential to be a very serious situation if those amounts were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 This map is more realistic. Again, can you say Agnes Redux? Parsley I was hoping to be wrong this time but this map is not good news for us. I hope PEMA is watching this storm carefully and I would be considering a state of emergency if I was the Governor early next week. Wilkes Barre and Harrisburg may experience severe damage from flooding along with the smaller boroughs along the Susquehanna. The poor Chesapeake Bay will get another shot of fresh water intrusion and the fishing industry will take another hit. For us, SOS as before. The Perky, Schuylkill, Neshaminy, Delaware, Passaic, and Raritan and all their tribs will be flooding again. Just plain nasty. Federal Disaster should be declared if this indeed comes to light not looking good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 May not only have to worry about Lee left overs. the 12z GGEM says Katia will be a close one. I expected a west shift today but just was not sure how far it would shift back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Wish I had a 150 hr GFS rain total. Extent of rain shield dereased some what on the 12Z, but the bullseye still in a bad place. Seems like each run of the GFS brings Katia ominously closer. May come close enough to rob some of the moisture from the remants of Lee (unbridled optimism) lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Seems like each run of the GFS brings Katia ominously closer. Actually very similar to 0z's run last night and is still east of the closest approach to date (18z yesterday). http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.gfso.2011090312.east_coast.4cyc.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Euro says cold front Monday PM-Tuesday AM, break Tuesday PM-Wednesday AM, decent rain event Wed PM-Thu. Still potential for flooding but we're back to a drip/drab scenario as opposed to getting 3" on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 12z Euro brings it west to 73 W (west of the 18z GFS) before turning it north and then northeast. Will still miss. Surf's up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Wish I had a 150 hr GFS rain total. Extent of rain shield dereased some what on the 12Z, but the bullseye still in a bad place. Seems like each run of the GFS brings Katia ominously closer. May come close enough to rob some of the moisture from the remants of Lee (unbridled optimism) lol. Strong suspicion that Katia will stop Lee and the front from moving out so quick and dump stationary and training storms on us. If that happens, it could be worse flooding than Katia hitting us. With two lows that close together, the winds maybe strong as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 This setup reminds me a bit of Floyd (1999) where it merged with a frontal boundry shortly after landfall which helped to maximize QPF. I live in Pompton Plains, NJ and as you know we probably couldn't even handle another 1-2" rain at this point let alone 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 This setup reminds me a bit of Floyd (1999) where it merged with a frontal boundry shortly after landfall which helped to maximize QPF. I live in Pompton Plains, NJ and as you know we probably couldn't even handle another 1-2" rain at this point let alone 4"+ CMC says close call for Katia and the global models in general are trending west slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 12z Euro brings it west to 73 W (west of the 18z GFS) before turning it north and then northeast. Will still miss. Surf's up though. Heard it's a pretty big sw shift before the recurve though from the 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Heard it's a pretty big sw shift before the recurve though from the 0z? watch the Board when it goes further west on the Euro tomorrow. It will like the Boxing Day storm. How much can NJ take in one year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 we have people in my town that had water up to there second floor, many who have said they are "done" and will never come back, this would probably be the be all end all for my town if it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Looks like Lee is heading a little west per radar which is good news for us in the short term, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 It would be quite the slap in the face to the globals if the 18z NAM verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Oh boy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Heard it's a pretty big sw shift before the recurve though from the 0z? Yeah...I think it's a touch west of yesterdays 12z euro...last nights run was a large shift east IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 It would be quite the slap in the face to the globals if the 18z NAM verifies I don't believe the globals have much to fear from the NAM here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 You really think that this will be as bad as Agnes? Or was it more sensationalizing the situation? I say this because NWS in BGM, CTP, and PHL don't really talk about the type of catastrophic flooding you are talking about. This map is more realistic. Again, can you say Agnes Redux? Parsley I was hoping to be wrong this time but this map is not good news for us. I hope PEMA is watching this storm carefully and I would be considering a state of emergency if I was the Governor early next week. Wilkes Barre and Harrisburg may experience severe damage from flooding along with the smaller boroughs along the Susquehanna. The poor Chesapeake Bay will get another shot of fresh water intrusion and the fishing industry will take another hit. For us, SOS as before. The Perky, Schuylkill, Neshaminy, Delaware, Passaic, and Raritan and all their tribs will be flooding again. Just plain nasty. Federal Disaster should be declared if this indeed comes to light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 You really think that this will be as bad as Agnes? Or was it more sensationalizing the situation? I say this because NWS in BGM, CTP, and PHL don't really talk about the type of catastrophic flooding you are talking about. Because this is forecasted to be nowhere near Agnes. There was a big area of 15+ in C PA with Agnes, with a huge area of 10+ throughout the whole area with that event. This is forecasted to be MUCH less then that, with a 7 inch max in PA, at least so far. Every time we're forecasted to get any kind of rain, Grothar brings up historic events and rides them, like it's going to be the day after tomorrow. I would go with what the pros are saying at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 You really think that this will be as bad as Agnes? Or was it more sensationalizing the situation? I say this because NWS in BGM, CTP, and PHL don't really talk about the type of catastrophic flooding you are talking about. Given current modeling, I don't see this as being as bad as Irene anywhere except central PA if the orographic lift and frontal area concentrate in that area. I don't see the Mt Holly area as being in the bullseye this time, although I've been surprised a few times in my life. 00z 4 Sept 12z 3 Sept As you can see, even though the full impact of events is now seen on the five day map and QPF totals are high in many areas, it is central PA which takes the brunt this time, and that zone has not shifted in at least three HPC releases. Unless things change, this will not be the end of the world for the Delaware basin. Susquehanna is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Guys, I cannot stress this enough. Root for the NAM. Root for the NAM with all your might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I got 3.5" with Irene.. and now I am progged to get 5-7" of rain on this QPF map. That's close to 10" over a 2 week period. Would cause major flooding, still not agnes-level. We will see what happens with this though, still not convinced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I think this depends on your location, obviously. If significant rains are in the main stem river headwaters, the impact downriver will have a different consequence to the individuals impacted from Irene versus this potential event. I'm more concerned if there is 'inches' of rain in the Deleware headwaters then in my backyard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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