tombo82685 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I mentioned this earlier in the tropical thread if whatever comes about of that mess in the gulf could be transported northward along the cold front. Now the euro is starting to send the moisture northeastward. Not quite to our longitude but it gets to the carolinas and southern va. The euro already paints 1-1.75 for the region with the cold front solely. The gfs ens members are pretty bullish on the prospects of some big heavy rains. Not saying this is certain but the potential does exist for whatever comes out of the gulf could stream northeastward post labor day...discuss... the ukmet has the low sitting over new oreleans hr 144 heres the 18z model run tracks for invest 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I mentioned this earlier in the tropical thread if whatever comes about of that mess in the gulf could be transported northward along the cold front. Now the euro is starting to send the moisture northeastward. Not quite to our longitude but it gets to the carolinas and southern va. The euro already paints 1-1.75 for the region with the cold front solely. The gfs ens members are pretty bullish on the prospects of some big heavy rains. Not saying this is certain but the potential does exist for whatever comes out of the gulf could stream northeastward post labor day...discuss... the ukmet has the low sitting over new oreleans hr 144 heres the 18z model run tracks for invest 93 Tombo, 3 inches or more is serious flooding. 5 inches or more will be catastrophic-- worse than 1903 or 1955. Please watch the models carefully thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 18z gfs ens mean are very wet for next week with the remnants of the gulf mess...dumps 3-4 inches. Probably some pretty juicy ens members in the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 still a long ways out but 18z indiv ens runs wouldnt be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 18z gfs ens mean is very wet for next week with the remnants of the gulf mess...dumps 3-4 inches. Probably some pretty juicy ens members in the 18z run. Tom, this is one tough cookie to watch. Some global models had this drifting over NE, then kind of retrograding back south and West. While i see no defined track, this certainly bears watching. Not sure if the flow at h5 will transport this NE? Or does the real flow to watch come @h7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 Tom, this is one tough cookie to watch. Some global models had this drifting over NE, then kind of retrograding back south and West. While i see no defined track, this certainly bears watching. Not sure if the flow at h5 will transport this NE? Or does the real flow to watch come @h7? Bri i think its like a squeeze play basically. With katia coming west to a degree and the trof coming down from the north and slowing down. Basically has an arrow pointed to the oh valley/mid atl northeast. The gfs cuts it off from the flow and causes it to creep at h5 This could have some kind of influence in terms of katia to down the road. Will be interesting labor day in terms of tracking potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Looks like we start off with half- to one-inch with Sunday's event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Looks like we start off with half- to one-inch with Sunday's event too. Just enough to re saturate any of the ground that did dry up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Looks like we start off with half- to one-inch with Sunday's event too. Looking more like Monday for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Euro honks a stalled front over the region for almost all of next week with on/off rain/thunder as 13 "links" up with the front...and 13 stays out over the OV with the front overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 Euro honks a stalled front over the region for almost all of next week with on/off rain/thunder as 13 "links" up with the front...and 13 stays out over the OV with the front overhead. pringting out 4-5 inches of rain from sat to next friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 pringting out 4-5 inches of rain from sat to next friday Yep...3-4 of that is Monday-Friday verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 If the Euro and GFS are right in the 12z run Tuesday's gon rain...a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 euro is going 3-5 inches of rain from sunday through next week for the area. 3-4 over majority of the area except coastal nj. The 4-5 is from easton right up the del river to dingmans ferry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 12z gfs indiv ens tot precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 new HPC map through 12z Wednesday http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 new HPC map through 12z Wednesday http://www.hpc.ncep....qpf/p120i12.gif No way is this map right. The gap over PA is just plain wrong. The Susquehanna Valley - it is their turn to experience the heavy rain even though a slight jog east and we are all in trouble. Like Tombo said in an earlier post- the squeeze play is on and Katia is still a baserunner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 No way is this map right. The gap over PA is just plain wrong. The Susquehanna Valley - it is their turn to experience the heavy rain even though a slight jog east and we are all in trouble. Like Tombo said in an earlier post- the squeeze play is on and Katia is still a baserunner. I was thinking maybe the Lee stuff hadn't progressed far enough north by that map's end date (early Wednesday), meanwhile the precip way up north is associated with the cold front Sunday / Monday? Maybe that explains the gap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 I was thinking maybe the Lee stuff hadn't progressed far enough north by that map's end date (early Wednesday), meanwhile the precip way up north is associated with the cold front Sunday / Monday? Maybe that explains the gap? bingo, euro and most models have more after 12z wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 euro is going 3-5 inches of rain from sunday through next week for the area. 3-4 over majority of the area except coastal nj. The 4-5 is from easton right up the del river to dingmans ferry. O lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 bingo, euro and most models have more after 12z wed the brunt is Tues on the Euro...to be fair that's when most of the rain is progged to fall...but the models have been in fail central with details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgir Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Another wet upcoming week, man ... this should be interesting to watch this develop. Any more flooding will just add to the misery index round the region. Will be watching closely what ya'll see coming. What amount of rainfall would trigger additional flooding? (looks like this rainfall may be spaced over 3 or 4 days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Wondering if it will be wet on Monday? I was thinking of re-staining my deck over the weekend. Cleaning and washing tomorrow, then waiting the 48 hours to stain Monday. But all bets are off if it rains Monday. I wish we just had a dry spell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Latest HPC 5-day is more aggressive and closes the gap a bit in Central PA, probably due to the additional 12 hours of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Latest HPC 5-day is more aggressive and closes the gap a bit in Central PA, probably due to the additional 12 hours of rain. why not show the map? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 why not show the map? http://www.hpc.ncep....qpf/p120i00.gif Because it'll change in 12 hours and I was too lazy to save it and upload it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Because it'll change in 12 hours and I was too lazy to save it and upload it. lol, good answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 why not show the map? http://www.hpc.ncep....qpf/p120i00.gif I know this is way out of the region but did anyone notice the 23.5" bulleye around New Orleans.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Rain event is continuing to get more interesting central pa per latest GFS ensemble would get 3-4 inches. Just remember the GFS is not the best with convective activity so that is pretty high for the models and its ensemble. even with that being said the 1-2 inches it has for our area could easily cause flooding of small streams. poor Vermont gets hammered again as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 On the other hand if the latest 00z GGEM is right we get a heck of a rain storm probably close to a 3-6 event. Would be devastating considering it will not take much for flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.