earthlight Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 The best threat currently looks to be farther inland over PA and Western NJ...away from the coast..but the threat may eventually extend there with time as the storms develop. The SPC discussion is below and lays out the entire synoptic setup very well. ...DISCUSSION... THERE HAS BEEN...AND CONTINUES TO BE...REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FORECASTS THAT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME WITH A DEEP TROUGH FORMING ACROSS ERN NOAM...AND AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. COINCIDENT WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THE D4-5 PERIOD....SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MREF CONSENSUS AND ANALOG FORECASTS INDICATE THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS NEWD TO NY DURING D4/SUNDAY. GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL TIMING...DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION...AND STRENGTH OF SHEAR EXIST SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON D5/MONDAY SO THIS AREA WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN A D5 AREA AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 09/01/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Can you pinpoint the timing of this event if it were to occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 12z NAM has the line of storms coming through Sunday night into Monday morning, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Yeah its quite warm and dry during the day 12z NAM has the line of storms coming through Sunday night into Monday morning, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Yeah its quite warm and dry during the day 850's are approaching +20C on Sunday. If there is enough sunshine, we can hit 90+ on Sunday. NAM picks up on the 90+ for Newark and into NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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