Hurricane season

[Lady in red]

Hi guys, I hope it's OK to ask - I have a family traveling in NYC until Sept 10, and I'm really worried about the hurricane and storms. Keeping track on Katia...

I know it's too early to predict, but do you think it'll have an effect on NYC? If so, when?

[HurricaneJosh]

Yes. It will hit NYC as a Cat 4, with winds of 130 kt. I expect landfall at Coney Island on 07 Sep at around 8:10 am-- maybe 8:15. Let's see.

[earthlight]

Hi guys, I hope it's OK to ask - I have a family traveling in NYC until Sept 10, and I'm really worried about the hurricane and storms. Keeping track on Katia...

I know it's too early to predict, but do you think it'll have an effect on NYC? If so, when?

It's highly unlikely that the storm will impact the East Coast of the United States. Based on the current position and historic analogs, the chances of landfall are lower than 20 percent. The chances of landfall or weather impact in the New York City area are even less.

Hope this helps.

[earthlight]

Yes. It will hit NYC as a Cat 4, with winds of 130 kt. I expect landfall at Cony Island on 07 Sep at around 8:10 am-- maybe 8:15. Let's see.

8:10 am is a little early, no? I'm not trying to sleep through landfall. Can you adjust accordingly?

[HurricaneJosh]

[CooL]

Yes. It will hit NYC as a Cat 4, with winds of 130 kt. I expect landfall at Coney Island on 07 Sep at around 8:10 am-- maybe 8:15. Let's see.

this is why you dont forecast hurricanes, you just chase them

[A-L-E-X]

this is why you dont forecast hurricanes, you just chase them

Yes, Josh doesn't like global models like the Euro, GFS, etc.

BTW we dont rate hurricanes by category up here, we rate them by the amount of flooding they cause

[CooL]

Yes, Josh doesn't like global models like the Euro, GFS, etc.

BTW we dont rate hurricanes by category up here, we rate them by the amount of flooding they cause

lol..Irene looked like complete crap and it still caused a ton of damage because our area of the world is really exposed when hurricanes come up here. And she was a borderline hurricane. I cant imagine what would happen if she rode that coast as a formidable cat 2

[A-L-E-X]

lol..Irene looked like complete crap and it still caused a ton of damage because our area of the world is really exposed when hurricanes come up here. And she was a borderline hurricane. I cant imagine what would happen if she rode that coast as a formidable cat 2

lol it really was comparable to Floyd up here. Flooding can cause a huge amount of damage.

[SnowGoose69]

lol..Irene looked like complete crap and it still caused a ton of damage because our area of the world is really exposed when hurricanes come up here. And she was a borderline hurricane. I cant imagine what would happen if she rode that coast as a formidable cat 2

It would have been a disaster. The trees were basically limping headed into this event due to the wet ground, I'd imagime we may have lost 1/3rd -40% of the trees on LI had this came in as a cat 2 or even more along the lines of Gloria. The good news is Irene really did a good job at taking out the trees that could not hack it and even a few more beyind that. We should be able to tolerate big wind events now for quite some time minus hurricanes of course. If a tree survived this event its very unlikely it would go down in anything similar or less.

[SRRTA22]

Yes. It will hit NYC as a Cat 4, with winds of 130 kt. I expect landfall at Coney Island on 07 Sep at around 8:10 am-- maybe 8:15. Let's see.

8:10 am is a little early, no? I'm not trying to sleep through landfall. Can you adjust accordingly?

OP was only asking a question, there was no reason to answer like that seriously.

[A-L-E-X]

It would have been a disaster. The trees were basically limping headed into this event due to the wet ground, I'd imagime we may have lost 1/3rd -40% of the trees on LI had this came in as a cat 2 or even more along the lines of Gloria. The good news is Irene really did a good job at taking out the trees that could not hack it and even a few more beyind that. We should be able to tolerate big wind events now for quite some time minus hurricanes of course. If a tree survived this event its very unlikely it would go down in anything similar or less.

The topography of Florida is a lot different from ours. The reason we are a lot more vulnerable is due to the nature of our land and our foliage-- the standards which apply down south for damage do not and will NEVER apply here. We simply need a different way for assessing these storms for our region.

[SnowGoose69]

The topography of Florida is a lot different from ours. The reason we are a lot more vulnerable is due to the nature of our land and our foliage-- the standards which apply down south for damage do not and will NEVER apply here. We simply need a different way for assessing these storms for our region.

Yeah, palm trees often require winds of 110 mph or more to actually uproot their bases, although tops may blow off with winds over 80 mph. There are also fewer trees overall down there and even in NC and SC so the damage tends to be way worse up this way.

[Scotty Lightning]

Yeah, palm trees often require winds of 110 mph or more to actually uproot their bases, although tops may blow off with winds over 80 mph. There are also fewer trees overall down there and even in NC and SC so the damage tends to be way worse up this way.

So what you're saying is that I should cut down all of the oak and pine trees in my backyard and plant palm trees instead, right? That way during a hurricane they will survive....but die in the Winter. Yay.

[Lady in red]

It's highly unlikely that the storm will impact the East Coast of the United States. Based on the current position and historic analogs, the chances of landfall are lower than 20 percent. The chances of landfall or weather impact in the New York City area are even less.

Hope this helps.

Thank you.

OP was only asking a question, there was no reason to answer like that seriously.

Thank you as well.

I'm not from the US, so not really familiar with the hurricane season. Just wanted to get an idea, an assumption, based on previous experience and based on the current situation.

[mulen]

LOL pin this .

[Lady in red]

LOL pin this .

Sorry I asked. I won't bother you guys anymore. Earthlight - Please lock or delete, and thanks again for your answer.

[HurricaneJosh]

Sorry I asked. I won't bother you guys anymore. Earthlight - Please lock or delete, and thanks again for your answer.

Oh, come on. We were just joking around-- we like to do that here.

Hurricanes in the New York area are extremely rare-- affecting the area less frequently than once per decade. Katia is expected to curve out to sea well east of the USA. Given this, it is extremely unlikely that your family would experience any problems up there, so you have nothing to worry about, really.

The part of the USA that's much more hurricane-prone would be the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and of course Florida.

I hope that helps.

[TheTrials]

Yes. It will hit NYC as a Cat 4, with winds of 130 kt. I expect landfall at Coney Island on 07 Sep at around 8:10 am-- maybe 8:15. Let's see.

[Scotty Lightning]

Oh, come on. We were just joking around-- we like to do that here.

Hurricanes in the New York area are extremely rare-- affecting the area less frequently than once per decade. Katia is expected to curve out to sea well east of the USA. Given this, it is extremely unlikely that your family would experience any problems up there, so you have nothing to worry about, really.

The part of the USA that's much more hurricane-prone would be the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and of course Florida.

I hope that helps.

I've also come to the conclusion that when Josh chases storms on the East Coast they weaken. So if you want a Cat 5 hurricane to slam NYC, make sure he stays on the west coast.

[mulen]

Mam no disrespect intended i was getting a kick out of the answers and how it morphed into a different conversation please don't leave on my account . There is alot to be learned here and Josh was indirectly telling you no one on earth can reasonably answer that question thats all.

[TheTrials]

Oh, come on. We were just joking around-- we like to do that here.

Hurricanes in the New York area are extremely rare-- affecting the area less frequently than once per decade. Katia is expected to curve out to sea well east of the USA. Given this, it is extremely unlikely that your family would experience any problems up there, so you have nothing to worry about, really.

The part of the USA that's much more hurricane-prone would be the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and of course Florida.

I hope that helps.

except she would have no way to know this because she had 2 posts up until that point and the other thing is the joking around that occurs is 99% of the time between people who know one another and post in this subforum regularly.

[Sock Puppet]

A tree cracked in front of my friends house yesterday. I'd say there are some trees that were left weakened by Irene and will fall next wind event.

It would have been a disaster. The trees were basically limping headed into this event due to the wet ground, I'd imagime we may have lost 1/3rd -40% of the trees on LI had this came in as a cat 2 or even more along the lines of Gloria. The good news is Irene really did a good job at taking out the trees that could not hack it and even a few more beyind that. We should be able to tolerate big wind events now for quite some time minus hurricanes of course. If a tree survived this event its very unlikely it would go down in anything similar or less.

[Sock Puppet]

Whoricane Josh was not very nice in this thread and I expect a public apology.

[Lady in red]

Mam no disrespect intended i was getting a kick out of the answers and how it morphed into a different conversation please don't leave on my account . There is alot to be learned here and Josh was indirectly telling you no one on earth can reasonably answer that question thats all.

I know, that's why I said "I know it's too early to predict" and "Do you think...". I didn't expect an exact answer, just an estimation based on experience. I did get an answer from earthlight and HurricaneJosh, so like I said you can lock or delete the thread. Thanks again.

[HurricaneJosh]

Mam no disrespect intended i was getting a kick out of the answers and how it morphed into a different conversation please don't leave on my account . There is alot to be learned here and Josh was indirectly telling you no one on earth can reasonably answer that question thats all.

Bingo.

except she would have no way to know this because she had 2 posts up until that point and the other thing is the joking around that occurs is 99% of the time between people who know one another and post in this subforum regularly.

You are an example for us all.

I know, that's why I said "I know it's too early to predict" and "Do you think...". I didn't expect an exact answer, just an estimation based on experience. I did get an answer from earthlight and HurricaneJosh, so like I said you can lock or delete the thread. Thanks again.

You did preface it with those statements-- but honestly, the science isn't even good enough to have a vague discussion about specific cities that might be impacted ten days out. That's what I was trying to convey with my initial response, which I thought was funny.

P.S. Threads are not deleted or locked here unless they become really hostile or acrimonious, so it'll just remain.

[BxEngine]

Bingo.

You are an example for us all.

You did preface it with those statements-- but honestly, the science isn't even good enough to have a vague discussion about specific cities that might be impacted ten days out. That's what I was trying to convey with my initial response, which I thought was funny.

P.S. Threads are not deleted or locked here unless they become really hostile or acrimonious, so it'll just remain.

Ill be hostile, bendy tree chaser. Another fake tropical system about to be named, and a gulf storm who is so unsure of himself hes afraid to move in any direction. This is why blizzards are so much better.

[TheTrials]

Ill be hostile, bendy tree chaser. Another fake tropical system about to be named, and a gulf storm who is so unsure of himself hes afraid to move in any direction. This is why blizzards are so much better.

agreed. These storms are stupid.

[earthlight]

You guys are all a bunch of divas.

[HurricaneJosh]

Ill be hostile, bendy tree chaser. Another fake tropical system about to be named, and a gulf storm who is so unsure of himself hes afraid to move in any direction. This is why blizzards are so much better.

You're still irritated about Irene, aren't you? All that build up and no 'cane.