tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 well atleast ant's 384 hr rainstorm is still there on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 whats the next 18z run, ensembles? And I'll try to push our luck again when i start 0z model thread. Should I start it with nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 whats the next 18z run, ensembles? And I'll try to push our luck again when i start 0z model thread. Should I start it with nam? Make it go 150-200 miles more SE and u can do whatever u want forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Wow, this is getting close for NW NJ again. Ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Is this model run even possible? The low literally swings across the mountains to the coast, I don't even see a secondary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Is this model run even possible? The low literally swings across the mountains to the coast, I don't even see a secondary! Its a average of what all the ensembles show at hrs 132 and 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Its a average of what all the ensembles show at hrs 132 and 144. Nah, I think it's just impossible. No way a low is going from southeast Missouri to central Kentucky to central Virginia to New Jersey. The 18z run should be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The other ensembles also show this happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 whats the next 18z run, ensembles? And I'll try to push our luck again when i start 0z model thread. Should I start it with nam? i guess you could but the 84 hr nam is like the 384hr gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Nah, I think it's just impossible. No way a low is going from southeast Missouri to central Kentucky to central Virginia to New Jersey. The 18z run should be and that's why it's an ensemble mean. Of course the low probably won't do that, the mean is taken by averaging the 20(?) GFS ensemble members together to come up with a compromise of where the general features are for all the individual runs of the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 The other ensembles also show this happening. You're seriously going to take the 18z GFS over the Euro, Canadian, and it's own 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 18z DGEX lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 and that's why it's an ensemble mean. Of course the low probably won't do that, the mean is taken by averaging the 20(?) GFS ensemble members together to come up with a compromise of where the general features are for all the individual runs of the members. I wasn't talking about the ensemble, I'm talking about the OP. That track is pathetic and just can't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 You're seriously going to take the 18z GFS over the Euro, Canadian, and it's own 12z? All the ensembles agree on the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I wasn't talking about the ensemble, I'm talking about the OP. That track is pathetic and just can't happen. Oh alright. But what's so wrong about the track on this run? Nothing can really be ruled out at this point. We're still 5-6 days away from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 the ens mean track is the same as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It appears as if HPC is not even sure yet themselves on what solution will be the final... FINAL... UNFORTUNATELY...THE BALANCE OF THE MODELS HAS NOT CHANGED WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. THE GFS HAS COME SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS...BUT THE GEFS MEAN HAS COME A HAIR SOUTH. THE UKMET CONTINUES ITS SOUTHERN TRACK...KEEPING THE SPLIT FLOW SEPARATE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE GEM GLOBAL IS STILL TO THE NORTH...WITH MORE NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTION. WILL STICK WITH THE MEAN USED FOR THE UPDATE PACKAGE...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET. MORE CERTAIN IS THE INVASION OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG EASTERN WAVE...WITH NORTH WINDS DRIVING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR DEEP THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES AND DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 the ens mean track is the same as 12z 12z was slightly west. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 the ens mean track is the same as 12z It's a little flatter and further east, but not by much. In all likelihood the individual members will have the same general spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 ...same as 12z ENSEMBLES, not OP.\ I think that's what you mean, just clarifying for others... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Watch out posting maps. Don't think it's allowed in "this" subforum. Even though lots of us are on cells, iPhones, driving working and depend on reloading the page to quickly see the maps. Shame. Please do not take this into this thread. If you have a beef, PM me or any other moderator. Nobody said you can't post maps. If you got that from the post, I suggest you read it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 very interesting solutions showing up. some of the ens members are showing no phase and just a wave riding along the cold front http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Crazy spread. Some take the low into the SE states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 just from looking at the indiv ens runs 6 of the 12 give us accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I have been pretty stubborn so far today, but there has definitely been a jump east in some ensemble members since last night. I won't call it a trend yet at this point. But it's certainly interesting to see some of the members shy completely away from the big wrapped up phase, especially considering the past several storms where we have seen de-amplifying trends as the storm approaches. Also, I probably would cut off a finger to see P004 verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 here is the 18z dgex accum 24hr precip from hr 144 on when the cold front and freeze line is over eastern half of nj, this is all frozen precip from atleast del river west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I definitely thought about this whole de-amplification we saw with the last 2 events, and it shouldn't be ignored. Granted that doesn't necessarily mean anything for us in terms of snow, but it is what is probably preventing this (if it indeeds occurs more like the 18z GFS says) from amplifying, phasing with the PV and giving chicago a blizzard. earthlight, is there anything in particular on the 18z GFS that shows why the s/w digs and then kinda meanders east before finally climbing the shoreline? (esp wrt to the 500mb setup because i have been watching the trends and that low between greenland and labrador/newfoundland has been trending further south and stronger) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Its all about how far south that clipper beforehand comes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Its all about how far south that clipper beforehand comes... the 18z gfs didn't trend further south with the clipper. I think its the strength of the s/w coming out in the plains along with the phasing with the pv and how strong and south that 50/50 is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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