dmc76 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Hopefully Nate can bring some relief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Hopefully Nate can bring some relief or dry NE winds for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 just in It is now confirmed that 1,386 homes have been destroyed in Bastrop. This is by far the most in TX history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 or dry NE winds for days Yep. Models show two likely solutions, and neither involves Nate pushing through the ridge to get to the parts of Texas that need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 6Z GFDL would be near worst case scenario re: Texas wildfires... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Seems like most non-GFS/initialized/bounded by the GFS models are in Mexico, a definite silver lining. Less wind, and from an Easterly versus Northeast or Northerly direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 On the less happy side, GFS has less than 0.4 inches at IAH next two weeks, and GFS ensemble means at over 2 weeks out look hauntingly familiar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 6Z GFDL would be near worst case scenario re: Texas wildfires... A repeat of Lee? Lots of wind where WE don't want it and lots of rain where THEY don't want it Help me Ed, others... what would the winds look like with this? Variable or from the N-NE? If I could just figure out a time table and draw up a windrose for it, I could have an idea of what we'd be facing on the fire line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 A repeat of Lee? Lots of wind where WE don't want it and lots of rain where THEY don't want it But the non-US models do not seem to be going that way. Even the GFS ensembles are split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 But the non-US models do not seem to be going that way. Even the GFS ensembles are split. For the sake of EVERYONE I hope it won't go that way... I suppose we'll just have to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. I feel so... cliche'd... I really am glad for these threads and for all the input from the posters. I know I don't post much, but I read every post on these threads to gain some insight into upcoming weather events. Right now, people's lives depend on it - and since Limestone County has no local weather stations that are observed by the NWS, we rely heavily on amateur stations and spotters. Along with Wunderground, I've used this site more than any other to try to get the information I need to keep one step ahead... true story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 I know this sounds fatalistic, but regardless of Nate, eventually the lows will come and when they do, so will the wind. I don't think it's a matter of "if" anymore. It's a matter of "when". From the NWS Ft Worth: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/fwd/FireWeatherOutlook/player.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 I know this sounds fatalistic, but regardless of Nate, eventually the lows will come and when they do, so will the wind. I don't think it's a matter of "if" anymore. It's a matter of "when". From the NWS Ft Worth: http://www.srh.noaa....ook/player.html I'm at work, didn't watch that player, but the Euro SON precip forecast doesn't look good for rain, and we will get fronts, whether modified Pacific air or Canadian air, which will be followed by either low or very low humidity and a day or two of rain wind. 10 day ensemble from Euro and 384 hour GFS ensembles not looking really good as far as tropics go, but the SW Caribbean is looking more active on the 10 day Euro, and it takes only a small and temporary relocation of the big ridge to allow us to get lucky. Anyone remember the "why is ENSO warming" thread from last Spring. That didn't work out well. It may well be Summer 2012 before significant drought relief. A drought rivalling the Dust Bowl and the 1950s, but with the current Texas population, kind of a scary thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Looks like the fire in far NW suburban Houston (Waller, Grimes, Montgomery counties) is flaring up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 I'm at work, didn't watch that player, Brief synopsis: Barring a fortuitous tropical system, don't expect much drought relief until at least spring and expect the danger of fires to exist until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Brief synopsis: Barring a fortuitous tropical system, don't expect much drought relief until at least spring and expect the danger of fires to exist until then. We're screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Doesn't look like Nate will be delivering any relief. The desertification of Texas continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 That fire can move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Looks like there is the potential for another critical fire weather day across portions of East Central Texas tomorrow. Temperatures look to climb above 100 in many areas with very low humidity values and gusty winds. Also in other news, a pretty large fire is out of control in Northern Minnesota in Lake County in the Superior National Forest. 11,000 acres and growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Looks like there is the potential for another critical fire weather day across portions of East Central Texas tomorrow. Temperatures look to climb above 100 in many areas with very low humidity values and gusty winds. Also in other news, a pretty large fire is out of control in Northern Minnesota in Lake County in the Superior National Forest. 11,000 acres and growing. That is one massive smoke plume there stretching almost to Iron Mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Well, that was a nice little vacation from the heat and fires, but alas all good things come to an end. Tomorrow looks like it's going to be a major wildfire day across portions of Central, Eastern, and Southeast Texas as winds increase to 25-30 MPH, temperatures climb to near 100 degrees, and humidity values drop off into the teens. Red Flag Warnings are already being issued with FWD putting out all sorts of alarms. Time to kick the fire coverage back into high gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXWXCHX Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Well, that was a nice little vacation from the heat and fires, but alas all good things come to an end. Tomorrow looks like it's going to be a major wildfire day across portions of Central, Eastern, and Southeast Texas as winds increase to 25-30 MPH, temperatures climb to near 100 degrees, and humidity values drop off into the teens. Red Flag Warnings are already being issued with FWD putting out all sorts of alarms. Time to kick the fire coverage back into high gear. We had humidity levels in the low 20's already today... I expect our humidities to drop into the teens tomorrow. With gusts forecast to 35mph for our area, we're looking at one heck of a day. I've sent out alerts to our entire dept; we're all bringing our bunker gear to church tomorrow. Here's praying we don't have to use it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 I think drought relief may be many months away for Texas. The tropics almost certainly won't deliver, ( we are more than halfway into the roughly 40 year average period between October storms, so, as always, I always remain silver lining optimistic) and I suspect another Autumn of mainly dry frontal passages. With wind and low RH for more fires. Who is this guy? What an irresponsible comment. I’m concerned because the same ocean conditions that seem to have contributed to the 1950s drought have been back for several years now and may last another five to 15 years.” The classic negative PDO, positive AMO, southern plains drought thought has shown to only have a 50% correlation and those long-term ocean variablility forecasts are in their infancy. http://www.usclivar.org/about.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wall_cloud Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Who is this guy? What an irresponsible comment. I’m concerned because the same ocean conditions that seem to have contributed to the 1950s drought have been back for several years now and may last another five to 15 years.” The classic negative PDO, positive AMO, southern plains drought thought has shown to only have a 50% correlation and those long-term ocean variablility forecasts are in their infancy. http://www.usclivar.org/about.php My thoughts exactly. Now I get to field phone calls from every newspaper in the region for the next 2 months try to explain it. Geez... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Nielsen-Gammon OK, he is at A&M, but his PhD is from MIT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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