PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 TS Lee as of 2 PM now... 1:00 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 Location: 27.4°N 91.5°W Max sustained: 40 mph Moving: NW at 2 mph Min pressure: 1003 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 With the way things have been here in Middle Tennessee, that much rain could cause problems with flash flooding very easy. I live in one of the area hardest hit by the Major Flooding that hit Nashville and surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 TS Lee as of 2 PM now... And it remains the homeliest cyclone of the year-- which is a pretty harsh judgment, given the other crap we've seen, starting with Arlene. Perhaps Lee should celebrate its new status by developing some convection over the center and dressing like something other than a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 And it remains the homeliest cyclone of the year-- which is a pretty harsh judgment, given the other crap we've seen, starting with Arlene. Perhaps Lee should celebrate its new status by developing some convection over the center and dressing like something other than a cold front. Disagree... Don looked worse. Lee's convection is really, really nice... and it is good to see that it consolidated some overnight. Now all it needs to do is wrap around the center and we'll be good.... the outflow in the east half is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Disagree... Don looked worse. Lee's convection is really, really nice... and it is good to see that it consolidated some overnight. Now all it needs to do is wrap around the center and we'll be good.... the outflow in the east half is good. No, this one looks the worst. It looks like a front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 No, this one looks the worst. It looks like a front. Grace-2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Grace-2003. We're talking about 2011 cyclones. Let's just agree that Lee makes a very shapely and attractive cold front and leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 No, this one looks the worst. It looks like a front. But at least this has a chance to get better, Don did the fastest disappearing act in the history of tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 But at least this has a chance to get better, Don did the fastest disappearing act in the history of tropical systems. And given how crappy it was, that disappearance was a gift to us all. For Lee to hang around is an affront. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 It's what I call an "ear" storm- with convection displaced east of the center creating an ear shape. I think NHC is too aggressive with bringing this to 65 kts but no one really thought this would anything more than a heavy rain producer in any case. I do not care actually, as long as I get a good rain here, which seems likely. Also NO does not need this to strengthen much, they will have enough issues with rainfall flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 And given how crappy it was, that disappearance was a gift to us all. For Lee to hang around is an affront. Disagree, it takes all kinds of storms to make a season. These slow movers can be fascinating, re: Allison, Alberto which caused flooding havoc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 It's what I call an "ear" storm- with convection displaced east of the center creating an ear shape. I think NHC is too aggressive with bringing this to 65 kts but no one really thought this would anything more than a heavy rain producer in any case. I do not care actually, as long as I get a good rain here, which seems likely. Also NO does not need this to strengthen much, they will have enough issues with rainfall flooding. It's what I call a "butt" storm, cuz it's ugly. By the way, the NHC does not bring it up to 65 kt! They keep it as a moderate TS. Disagree, it takes all kinds of storms to make a season. These slow movers can be fascinating, re: Allison, Alberto which caused flooding havoc. Disagree, it's butt ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 It's what I call a "butt" storm, cuz it's ugly. By the way, the NHC does not bring it up to 65 kt! They keep it as a moderate TS. Disagree, it's butt ugly. Oops, I misread that without my reading glasses. We can agree to disagree, I like any storm that affects land over a cat 5 fish.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Oops, I misread that without my reading glasses. It's easy to do that, now that the Discussions list winds in both kt and mph. I'm constantly misreading the tables as well. I preferred it the old way, with kt only. We can agree to disagree, I like any storm that affects land over a cat 5 fish.... Well, I agree with you that landfalling cyclones are more interesting-- so we can remain friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I don't see a cold front look. Looks kind of like a squid. The closest weather term I can think of is tropical waves moving through intense shear, what I've heard called a 'screaming eagle" look. This one depresses me. Not only zero drought relief locally, it will enhance the fire danger via subsidence/heat and dry/gusty North/Northeast winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 It's easy to do that, now that the Discussions list winds in both kt and mph. I'm constantly misreading the tables as well. I preferred it the old way, with kt only. Well, I agree with you that landfalling cyclones are more interesting-- so we can remain friends. If the storm develops as anticipated it might be worth seeing what 40 hours of tropical storm conditions would be like lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Did anyone see the 192hr precip maps. This could be real bad for the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I don't see a cold front look. Looks kind of like a squid. The closest weather term I can think of is tropical waves moving through intense shear, what I've heard called a 'screaming eagle" look. This one depresses me. Not only zero drought relief locally, it will enhance the fire danger via subsidence/heat and dry/gusty North/Northeast winds. I have seen a lot worse looking systems than this one- for one thing it is quite large, and actually has pretty good outflow banding on the east and south quads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I have seen a lot worse looking systems than this one- for one thing it is quite large, and actually has pretty good outflow banding on the east and south quads. It has a band to the Southwest that looks like its making a run at Mexico. Close staring at the visual loops, I no longer see a low level center way West of the main and official center, exposed, South of about Lake Charles, as I did this morning. I suspect it is consolidating centers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kennethb Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Of course this forcast out of Slidell is based on current forecast of Lee, but 3 days of potential tropical storm conditions, gust to hurricane force is nothing to take lightly. And of course there will likely be a chance of tornados as well during this time period. IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE... PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE 1125 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... .TODAY...CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...WINDY. RAIN AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH INCREASING TO 45 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...WINDY. RAIN AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. EAST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. .SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 40 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 75 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. .SUNDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .LABOR DAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 70. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. If the storm develops as anticipated it might be worth seeing what 40 hours of tropical storm conditions would be like lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 It would be pretty devastating to have winds like that for two or three days, especially with a saturated ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Question for the mets, but what would 20 inches of rain do to New Orleans? And if this moved up the east coast, what would 5-10 inches of rain do to the Northeast at this point? And yeah, I agree, 48 hours straight of winds gusting over 60 MPH...it might not be the most intense storm ever, but I would think that would really wear down a lot of things over that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Question for the mets, but what would 20 inches of rain do to New Orleans? And if this moved up the east coast, what would 5-10 inches of rain do to the Northeast at this point? And yeah, I agree, 48 hours straight of winds gusting over 60 MPH...it might not be the most intense storm ever, but I would think that would really wear down a lot of things over that time frame. Went thru 36 hrs of TS conditions in the FL Panhandle during Georges 1998. A little over 20 inches of rain. Constant winds of 30 and higher with gusts. Upwards of 15 tornado warnings, several where 3 of us were huddled in a downstairs 1/2 bath. Major urban flooding & a good bit of downed trees. For me it took about 24 hrs for mental exhaustion to set in. By about 30 hrs I was about to go nuts. It is not something that I would want to do again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 My personal opinion is that NHC is moving Lee too slowly- their speed is slower than almost all the guidance- closer to the UK and Euro, but the Euro ensembles are faster than the Op- my guess is that this will be 12-24 hours faster especially later in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
it*has*an*i Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 One good thing about Lee is that it sounds like the tornado risk is going to be extremely low. No warnings or even watches yet and no slight risk though there is a "see text" over the Louisiana Marshlands which IMO is just a CYA type of thing in case one spins up at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Went thru 36 hrs of TS conditions in the FL Panhandle during Georges 1998. A little over 20 inches of rain. Constant winds of 30 and higher with gusts. Upwards of 15 tornado warnings, several where 3 of us were huddled in a downstairs 1/2 bath. Major urban flooding & a good bit of downed trees. For me it took about 24 hrs for mental exhaustion to set in. By about 30 hrs I was about to go nuts. It is not something that I would want to do again. Yep, agree, I was in Mobile for Georges. Danny was my first Hurricane and Danny stalled over Weeks Bay and dropped over 30". Might be best analog for higher precip storms for the Mobile Pensacola area. Hurricane Danny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 One good thing about Lee is that it sounds like the tornado risk is going to be extremely low. No warnings or even watches yet and no slight risk though there is a "see text" over the Louisiana Marshlands which IMO is just a CYA type of thing in case one spins up at some point. The tornado risk is probably only low early in the event. It will likely increase Sunday/Monday south and east of the track, if it gets as strong as the GFS/ECMWF are indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Correct me If Im wrong...Im not a met...but since Lee's cloud cover is seemingly half or more of the GOM, and a good bit of that has rain falling under it...does it wreck the Heat potential for down the road or is it just a minor blip in the SST's? Seems like we are not only getting a crap TS but its wrecking SST for stuff to come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Correct me If Im wrong...Im not a met...but since Lee's cloud cover is seemingly half or more of the GOM, and a good bit of that has rain falling under it...does it wreck the Heat potential for down the road or is it just a minor blip in the SST's? Seems like we are not only getting a crap TS but its wrecking SST for stuff to come! West of 90 has seen little 'cloud cover' and in fact, little rainfall. The Gulf will be able to sustain a cyclone for the next couple of months without any problem, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 From looking at the hourly rainfall rates and total rainfall compared to NAM/GFS 12z 12 hr forecasts, I am wondering if the forecasted rainfall is somewhat overdone as a result of the dry air intrusion from the ULL. Not to say there wont be a lot of rain but I think with the potential of slightly faster system movement combined with precip rates being kept down (mostly around 0.1/0.2"/hr atm) excessive rainfall may be able to be avoided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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