Extratropical Depression Lee

[Ed Lizard]

Well, 2 feet being pumped into canals into Ponchartrain as sea levels rise 2 or 3 feet, not good.

Not good for, say, Norco, Louisiana, as the Mississippi rises and little notice to open gates to the B. Carre.

[Wild Weather Monger]

Well, 2 feet being pumped into canals into Ponchartrain as sea levels rise 2 or 3 feet, not good.

Not good for, say, Norco, Louisiana, as the Mississippi rises and little notice to open gates to the B. Carre.

The river is not the problem. Lake Pontchartrain and the canals are.

Haven't looked, but just looking at wind obs around SE Louisiana, no doubt tides are already running 2-3' above normal now.

[mike2010]

The river is not the problem. Lake Pontchartrain and the canals are.

Haven't looked, but just looking at wind obs around SE Louisiana, no doubt tides are already running 2-3' above normal now.

Indeed, closer to new orleans too -

http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/coastline.shtml?region=la

[Amped]

This is a Major Heavy rain threat from LA to WV

[it*has*an*i]

This is a Major Heavy rain threat from LA to WV

I get robbed as there is a little purple hole in SE Alabama of 2" or so and everyone else cashes in on 5-10" around me

[HurricaneJosh]

It still looks like complete crap on the IR imagery. If the center is where the last advisory puts it, it's 100% exposed-- and not by a small margin.

This is just not a quality system. I think of it less as a tropical cyclone and more as a primitive (but effective) rainmaking mechanism.

[phil882]

As long as we can get a TS out of this I'm satisfied which it. We should have enough time for it to do that.

We just need to keep working our way towards the lucrative P name

[phlwx]

It still looks like complete crap on the IR imagery. If the center is where the last advisory puts it, it's 100% exposed-- and not by a small margin.

This is just not a quality system. I think of it less as a tropical cyclone and more as a primitive (but effective) rainmaking mechanism.

You know a season like this isn't complete without a slopical Gulf system that has 90% of its moisture east of the low thanks to wind shear and/or dry air.

[Ed Lizard]

As long as we can get a TS out of this I'm satisfied which it. We should have enough time for it to do that.

We just need to keep working our way towards the lucrative P name

Your name is Phillipe?

The center as best as can be determied by the IR loops is well West of the storms, but maybe its my natural born optimism, the convection seems to be building closer to the apparent center.

[Bruinsyear]

That's up from the earlier forecast.

Wow what kind of strain will that put on the levees? Hopefully they have sured all the weak points up down there. 2 feet of rain is just bizzare.

[dan11295]

Rainfall is not going to cause problems for the levees, it will result in freshwater flooding in the city if it comes down at a faster rate than the pumps can work to pump it out, New HPC maps lowers to max to 17" but its kind of semantics right now, heaviest totals will come where training sets up.

[dan88]

They initialized the 12z SHIPS with 35kt, so may be planning an upgrade with the next advisory

Regardless of that though, the SHIPS initialization initialized shear at 18kt, which while still relatively high, is down a good bit from the 25+kt that we were seeing yesterday. It shows this as the peak shear before landfall, varying from a general 10-15kt from 6 hours onward, and a landfall intensity of 66kt in 48 hours.

[Srain]

First visible shot of the morning. We may have a TS if RECON data is correct and the NHC decides to upgrade. We will see...

[Mr Torchey]

Looking much better this morning as shear has relaxed, would not be suprised if we get a center jump to the east under that intense convection.

[DaculaWeather]

First visible shot of the morning. We may have a TS if RECON data is correct and the NHC decides to upgrade. We will see...

What a beautiful image! Very dense cloud cover. Buoy 64 miles south of Dauphin Island AL is showing 31 kt winds http://www.daculaweather.com/buoy_new.php

[DaculaWeather]

49,000 ft tops now showing up on LIX radar.

[Srain]

RECON has yet to locate a center of circulation. So far data suggests a very large, elongated broad low pressure field (roughly 1006mb) displaced W of the deep convection. The broad surface low extends roughly from about 275 SE of Houston to 280 miles SSW of New Orleans.

[DaculaWeather]

It looks like from the latest visible image that some bands on the west side are starting to fill in and are beginning to wrap around the center.

[usedtobe]

You can get a feel for why HPC is hitting the precip so hard with the storm when you look at the rainfall associated with Allison. Its location was farther west and it cam ashore near houston rathr than over LA but it too was only a tropical storm that meandered over TX for awhile and then moved back over the Gulf and reintensified before coming ashore again over LA. A pretty sizable 20 inch area was observed. While all tropical systems are different, its rainfall does give an idea of the potential when a storm stalls or crawls and no real terrain influences are nearby.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/allison2001.html

[Ed Lizard]

Looking at the South Florida Water Management District track maps, the models nobody gives much credence to, like the NOGAPS and some of the BAMs, still offer hope to Texas rain.

[Srain]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 14:33Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)

Tropical Depression: Number 13 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 2

Observation Number: 07

A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 12:33:40Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°37'N 90°55'W (27.6167N 90.9167W) (View map)

B. Center Fix Location: 171 miles (275 km) to the SSW (198°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,469m (4,820ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NNE (21°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 120° at 12kts (From the ESE at ~ 13.8mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NNE (19°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph) in the north quadrant at 12:08:10Z

[janetjanet998]

Oil Platform

28.160 N 90.666 W (28°9'36" N 90°39'58" W)

Anemometer height: 89 m above site elevation

Conditions at KSTZ as of

(9:15 am CDT)

1415 GMT on 09/02/2011:

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )

Wind Speed (WSPD): 44.1 kts

Wind Gust (GST): 55.0 kts

Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.6 °F

Dew Point (DEWP): 78.8 °F

Visibility (VIS): 1.7 nmi

[DaculaWeather]

Brutus - Green Canyon drilling platform directly south of Louisiana and almost directly in the center.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42362&unit=E

[dan11295]

12z NAM pushes max a bit farther east to the Mobie-Pensacola area. Some training is already occuring over that area so storm evolution will have to be watched regarding rainfall.

[Ed Lizard]

Straw grasp time, but I think I see what looks like an exposed low level vort max well West of the main center, and maybe if the shear does relax it could start firing storms closer to my lawn.

[DaculaWeather]

Slowly starting to close off it looks like...

[LithiaWx]

oh my gawwd. 12z GFS is worst case scenario for Jersey.

Lee moving quicker to the north-east along with deepening low over eastern Canada. = Strong conveyor belt of moisture in the area for days...

? that's not what I see. I see the center of Lee stalled out over the southeast and eventually dissipating or getting absorbed into a front.

[mike2010]

? that's not what I see. I see the center of Lee stalled out over the southeast and eventually dissipating or getting absorbed into a front.

yea, but it moves inland quicker than previous runs. In agreement with the NAM as well. Meaning the moisture will reach up into the mid-atlantic quicker.

Disaster either way you look at it -

[Calderon]

that just looks plain delicious for us in Middle TN, we need the rain

[DaculaWeather]

that just looks plain delicious for us in Middle TN, we need the rain

Same here in Georgia. It can stop right over my house for all I care.