Ed Lizard Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Flight One and Flight Four seems to suggest NHC expects a bit of a SW drift... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 12z CMC changed it's tune.... it now follows the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 This is just crazy... the 06z GFS EnKF ensembles.... uncertainty is an understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 00Z...we're up to hr 48 lol @ the 12Z Euro at hour 192... deepens 93L to 930 MB in the NW Gulf just before making landfall along the east-central LA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 lol @ the 12Z Euro at hour 192... deepens 93L to 930 MB in the NW Gulf just before making landfall along the east-central LA coast. This is last night's run, 12Z Euro is out to 84, has shifted NE, 991mb low just south of SC Louisiana, bad news for LA re: flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 This is last night's run, 12Z Euro is out to 84, has shifted NE, 991mb low just south of SC Louisiana, bad news for LA re: flooding I wonder whether the pressure will be under 1004 at that time? The euro sure likes deepening storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 This is last night's run, 12Z Euro is out to 84, has shifted NE, 991mb low just south of SC Louisiana, bad news for LA re: flooding Wow, I'm an idiot... thanks. I was wondering why the 12Z came out so fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I wonder whether the pressure will be under 1004 at that time? The euro sure likes deepening storms. I think this will deepen pretty slowly- it is really generating under an mid level low. I think that biggest thing by far with Lee? Maria? is the massive rainfall coupled with a minor-moderate surge in southern LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I'd like some clarity with regard to this system. I'm getting just a little tired of "Pin the Tail on the Center", "squashed spiders", stationary-for-five-days nonsense, etc. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I wonder whether the pressure will be under 1004 at that time? The euro sure likes deepening storms. GFS and Canadian are similar as far as depth and position. Canadian is a little farther west. I think we are coming into a better consensus on a system developing S of SW LA/SE TX, potentially becoming a strong TS (maybe cat 1?), and moving N/NE into S LA Sunday or Monday. Will be interesting to see where th EC goes after this time period. Certainly looks a bigtime heavy rain and flood potential as far as LA and maybe parts of MS and eventually AL depending on the ultimate track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Nail in the coffin for drought-replenishing rains for SE TX. I'm calling it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I think this will deepen pretty slowly- it is really generating under an mid level low. I think that biggest thing by far with Lee? Maria? is the massive rainfall coupled with a minor-moderate surge in southern LA. That would be my guess too but the media is already talking up the potential to produce oil disruptions. http://xfinity.comcast.net/articles/news-general/20110831/NEWS-US-STORM-KATIA/ Gas prices for this time of year are already high so I guess we can expect them to go even higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 With the GFDL and GGEM shifting east, I think TX is screwed except for maybe far SE sections. One good thing for us in GA, this now probably means rain for this neck of the woods.. This is one of those relatiely weak systems that will be remembered for its flooding, a la Alberto and Allison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Yeah, this looks like a rain maker mostly that will be sucked NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 4 rain drops locally per Euro MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Going to be a fun one to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I think that this will be called a depression or even storm in the next 48 hours- despite shear which will keep convection east of the center for quite a while, I think NHC will feel pressure to call this because of proximity to the coast and the fact that people will pay attention sooner if it is called something. If even a broad center is found by recon either today or tomorrow, put that in the bank. Always have to figure politics into these scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Going to be a fun one to track. There's actually better consensus than what is portrayed in the graphic... The AVNO (GFS) is from 6z, and the TVCN will drastically change when 12z models are weighted in... and the NOGAPS...well, is the NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I think that this will be called a depression or even storm in the next 48 hours- despite shear which will keep convection east of the center for quite a while, I think NHC will feel pressure to call this because of proximity to the coast and the fact that people will pay attention sooner if it is called something. If even a broad center is found by recon either today or tomorrow, put that in the bank. Always have to figure politics into these scenarios. There seems to be a broad center developing now near 27N, 91W looking at low cloud motions. The ECMWF 200 mb winds show a rather significant change in the next 24 hours with upper level winds becoming lighter and much more SW, which would reduce the shear quite a bit. We'll see if that actually pans out. The RUC analyses show the 200-300 mb winds have decreased by 10-20 kt over the region since this morning, but are still running 20-30 kt at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Looking at my ADD high resolution loop, there are clearly low clouds with motion from the West, but it sure doesn't look like enough of a center to upgrade on. On an unrelated note, not seeing any, but Don would barf out arcus clouds that would race all the way across the Gulf and develop storms as they hit land, so we got a little rain out of that. Since this is an almost certain miss, I'm rooting for dry air intrusions. 18Z New Orleans/LIX sounding not to encouraging. I will say, satellite looks sheared, but the soundings doesn't look mega-hostile. Edit for wrong sounding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 There's actually better consensus than what is portrayed in the graphic... The AVNO (GFS) is from 6z, and the TVCN will drastically change when 12z models are weighted in... and the NOGAPS...well, is the NOGAPS. Yeah, really, to be honest, at least from a model perspective this has become a lot clearer today. All the models are pretty much unanimous in developing the system S/SW of LA, deepening it somewhere in the 985-995 mb range, and moving it slowly N/NE toward LA with a landfall sometime Sunday into Monday. If the shear actually evolves in the way the models show, this is probably pretty reasonable. Given the strength of the trough dropping into the Midwest, it is hard for me to believe this system will not get enough poleward push to eventually move inland early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bannor Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Recon and surface data is pretty clearly showing a closed low level circulation with minimum pressure around 1010 mb. SFMR data show max winds of 45 kt, apparently uncontaminated, and there have been 35-40 kt ship/buoy reports. However, the convective organization is still pretty much non-existant due to the presistent upper level westerly winds of 20-30 kt near the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 These are colors you don't see very often. And this is just through Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 These are colors you don't see very often. And this is just through Sunday afternoon. Note the sharp cut-off going westward into Houston and the rest of TX. I'm in a sour mood. Looks like we can only hope for some diurnal convection to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Kind of lame, organization-wise, for a system in the C Gulf at peak season. It has a late-October vibe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I have spent many years in the N.O. area of Louisiana. They have flooding problems very easily just from daily thunderstorms. 10+ inches of rain is going to be a very big problem. The pumps will likely not keep up with the amount of rain that will be falling. This is a very concerning problem and I anticipate this system to cause major flooding problems for the city. I have seen the city flood with much less than 10 inches before, this could be very ugly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I think this has enough of a wind circulation from recon to go ahead and upgrade at 5pm... although I doubt they go above TD for the first advisory given the low flight level winds so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Where are the max winds-- 300 mi E of the "center"? Hawt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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