HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 SHIPS shows a peak of 83kt before landfall, still lots of shear though, 25kt initially, eventually dropping 15-20kt My best pro-met tropical bud-- am19psu-- already disabused me of taking the SHIPS seriously until it's a coherent cyclone-- but it's hard not to get a little excited by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 There's a significant difference with the energy east of the main 850mb vort. I think the 0z GFS will have the same correction. It did affect the 0z NAM track. 12z Euro didn't show any significant vorticity east of the invest vort. Told ya... the result... it's further west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 GFS has taken a decided turn towards the Euro- moving slowly WSW off the lower TX coast Tuesday. This is probably correct because it screws us out of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 0z GFS is pretty similar to the 12z Euro.... stall just inland/South TX-LA border, misses the trough and starts to move southwest after day 5+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Told ya... the result... it's further west this run. Very good. Now where does our budding TC drop anchor....water or land?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Cool. SW = awesome. Maybe we can get something real out of this. And of course we all want storms to stay the heck away from New Orleans! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Heads for the border... just a tad south of 12z Euro, maybe a hair south of the border, and it's intensifying at that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Very good. Now where does our budding TC drop anchor....water or land?? Yep, if the trough miss scenario persists, that will be the next question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 GFS has taken a decided turn towards the Euro- moving slowly WSW off the lower TX coast Tuesday. This is probably correct because it screws us out of rain. I completely agree with that reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Would not fully agree with the models on Lee just yet. Any model that stalls it and has it doing circles problem not going to happen both euro and GFS do this but are now on to the idea of this going towards Texas. Of course the GFS dives south to mexico. at the same time the dynamical models and ensembles look like a knotted ball of yarn if we can get a center of circulation to become well defined and some fresh upper air data from recon we may see better results or at least some kind of agreement. All things considered this is not your typical set up for a Hurricane we got high shear in place but at the same time a very warm gulf of mexico and a moist air mass there. One would think the shear would prevent development but at this time it appears that it would slowly weaken. as it does so we could see a depression as early as tomorrow then a future lee tomorrow night or Friday. first guess would be anywhere from southeast Texas to NOLA for land fall. If shear was to weaken fast enough we could see a quick cat 1 or cat 2 Hurricane pop. Just my current thinking and way I see this none the less no matter what happens this will be a moisture loaded event for whoever gets it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 For what it's worth, the Canadian suggests development near Coastal SW Louisiana and then deepening while moving just S of Galveston heading WSW into the Middle/Lower Tx Coast...a bit quicker than the GFS, but missing the trough as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 The Canadian has been one of the westernmost of the models. Interestingly enough, the 00Z GFS ensembles are east of the Op, the Op is a pretty big western outlier. The confusion continues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 One thing seems obvious to me... its going to take quite some time before we get a coherent cyclone out of this. Right now the wind shear is very strong over the circulation (30-40 knots) and most of the models aren't really suggesting genesis until somewhere around the 72 hour point. Even then, this will still be a very diffuse system that's poorly organized. I'd say its not even worth venturing a guess on the track until we have some sort of cyclone to talk about, because until the center consolidates a little, the track could be anywhere from Florida to Mexico. For those rooting for a stronger cyclone, we will likely want to see a further south and west initial vortex which would allow it to "get stuck" on the edge of the mid-level ridge as the strong trough that is expected to drop into the east coast can swing through without picking up the system. However, I'm not holding my breath for anything substantial outside of a diffuse TD or TS before 120 hours. If a more northern center location transpires, it could already be inland by this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 GFS has taken a decided turn towards the Euro- moving slowly WSW off the lower TX coast Tuesday. This is probably correct because it screws us out of rain. You think Georgia gets screwed more then Texas on rain? If we could get 15+ inches of rain over the state, that would be great. Sure, we'd have a major flood event, but that's the only thing that will end this drought. In reality, there's not much use in trying to pin down a specific landfall region until we get a defined low level circulation, or at least a general low pressure area. This is going to be one of those storms that sure screws up a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldWxDude Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Would not fully agree with the models on Lee just yet. Any model that stalls it and has it doing circles problem not going to happen both euro and GFS do this but are now on to the idea of this going towards Texas. Of course the GFS dives south to mexico. at the same time the dynamical models and ensembles look like a knotted ball of yarn if we can get a center of circulation to become well defined and some fresh upper air data from recon we may see better results or at least some kind of agreement. All things considered this is not your typical set up for a Hurricane we got high shear in place but at the same time a very warm gulf of mexico and a moist air mass there. One would think the shear would prevent development but at this time it appears that it would slowly weaken. as it does so we could see a depression as early as tomorrow then a future lee tomorrow night or Friday. first guess would be anywhere from southeast Texas to NOLA for land fall. If shear was to weaken fast enough we could see a quick cat 1 or cat 2 Hurricane pop. Just my current thinking and way I see this none the less no matter what happens this will be a moisture loaded event for whoever gets it. I agree. This will be one of those sneeky pain in the ass storms. Until a center is found, we'll see a mess as far as tracks. I've been reading some of the posts. I've heard upwelling would weaken storm. Won't happen North of the Shelf where some of the models want to stall system. Upwelling is a minimal a factor in 300' deep water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I agree. This will be one of those sneeky pain in the ass storms. Until a center is found, we'll see a mess as far as tracks. I've been reading some of the posts. I've heard upwelling would weaken storm. Won't happen North of the Shelf where some of the models want to stall system. Upwelling is a minimal a factor in 300' deep water. With 90 degree water and water that deep it should not be too much of an issue. The track it does take though will have somewhat of an effect on how strong it gets yes we may see a depression tomorrow yes we may see the name LEE but we probably will see slow development till shear relaxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 With 90 degree water and water that deep it should not be too much of an issue. The track it does take though will have somewhat of an effect on how strong it gets yes we may see a depression tomorrow yes we may see the name LEE but we probably will see slow development till shear relaxes. with very slowly moving cyclones, you shouldn't focus on the surface sea temperatures. The subsurface water temperatures become far more important which are represented by oceanic heat content. In 93L case, we have a 50-100 meter depth of 26 degree Celsius waters across most of the Gulf of Mexico. This will sustain the system for some time, but its also comparable to the subsurface water depth where Irene was traversing in the Bahamas. So while its plenty warm, if the storm does sit over the same area for 4-5 days, it will still induce significant up-welling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Euro suggests a strengthening storm off the SW Louisiana/Upper Texas Coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Euro drifts it due south in the western GOM then stalls it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 The euro finally takes it into Louisiana at around 200hrs.. Man o man did Lee have a party in the GOM this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Again where this vortex decides to set up shop is very key to where this system ends up going... the ECWMF suggests it can make it far enough west to get stuck during the 3-6 day period in the same location. The problem is I think its intensifying the system far too much if it does end up stalling like this due, mainly due to underplaying the effects of up-welling. Does anyone know if global models is able to incorporate the effects of up-welling over time under a tropical cyclone if its stalled? I believe the GFDL and HWRF have that capability by being atmosphere/ocean coupled models, but I'm less sure about the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Again where this vortex decides to set up shop is very key to where this system ends up going... the ECWMF suggests it can make it far enough west to get stuck during the 3-6 day period in the same location. The problem is I think its intensifying the system far too much if it does end up stalling like this due, mainly due to underplaying the effects of up-welling. Does anyone know if global models is able to incorporate the effects of up-welling over time under a tropical cyclone if its stalled? I believe the GFDL and HWRF have that capability by being atmosphere/ocean coupled models, but I'm less sure about the global models. Upwelling will not be much of an issue via the euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Upwelling will not be much of an issue via the euro solution. With it staying in the same location for 5+ days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 With it staying in the same location for 5+ days? As stated earlier, shelf water depth will not be that much of a deterrent. Further offshore would be a different issue. These coastal shelf waters are virtually untapped this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 As stated earlier, shelf water depth will not be that much of a deterrent. Further offshore would be a different issue. These coastal shelf water are virtually untapped this season. Yes the water temperatures near the surface are very warm... but 4-5 days of stalled motion will tap out even the warmest ocean waters with the highest oceanic heat content. The storm will keep overturning cooler and cooler water underneath until it no longer supports the latent heat maintenance necessary for a powerful tropical cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 0z GFDL sure would be nice for Texas. Outlier with the movement of the system and not stalling it out - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Why is the GFDL always so pornographic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Why is the GFDL always so pornographic? And wrong? The new Euro ensemble members are spread out NE/SW by 108 hours, but fewer members are in the SW camp than the NE camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Someday the GFDL will be right. Someday. Canadian seems the only model with much rain, and that ranks down the chain of globals. Even the humble NAM is not our friend. Northeast winds, subsidence, heat, low humidity, fires, little to no rain, and rough surf and undertow at the beaches for a holiday weekend. What is not to love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Yes the water temperatures near the surface are very warm... but 4-5 days of stalled motion will tap out even the warmest ocean waters with the highest oceanic heat content. The storm will keep overturning cooler and cooler water underneath until it no longer supports the latent heat maintenance necessary for a powerful tropical cyclone. Let's say that the waters were of the same temp. all of the way to the ocean floor. ( I know this is not realistic, but that's beside the point.) Wouldn't a TC still cause cooling of the water (although I assume not as quickly) simply because it is taking energy away from the water? In other words, even if there isn't any cooler water for 93L to upwell, would it still cause sig. cooling if it lingers over an area for a long time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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