HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 As noted earlier regarding the EnKF GFS ensembles, there are some pretty stout looking TC's depicted, and I've honestly just been looking at them since dtk (I think) pointed them out during Irene. Word on the street is they are performing pretty well in their experimental mode. I think (and am hoping for me and my family's sake in Disney next week) that future Lee doesn't get dragged too far east initially, and see a stall (for a bit....not like the GFS 18z 'bust out the Arc' scenario) and then a drift to the SW. Jury is out if this buries itself into N. MX/BRO area or gets strung out and swept into the SE....I don't have a leaning at this point. Intesity-wise.....really kind of a crap shoot with land interaction, parched air over TX, but pretty good OHC and SST's with the ridge in almost ideal location (at least as progged) in a few days...and of course the main factor..... if it stays sufficiently out in the GOM...there is reason for concern. We know what systems can potentially do there. Cool, thanks. I find the SW-to-BRO scenario titillating for a variety of reasons. Is that hot, dry air over TX the reason that Don totally went poof! without a trace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Cool, thanks. I find the SW-to-BRO scenario titillating for a variety of reasons. Is that hot, dry air over TX the reason that Don totally went poof! without a trace? That plus the SAL it never shed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Irene? Again, Juan was no looker, but Irene in NJ?? Heh Here: http://www.aoml.noaa...eviews/1985.pdf Yeah, the east side was pitiful as you point out, but there's a little core there in that photo. Well... Maybe I was being a *little* harsh to Juan. But you know what I'm saying. I think we'd all be pretty pissed to have a big, fat, useless Juan sitting in the middle of the Gulf wasting primo oceanic heat content near climatological peak season. C'mon-- admit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 That plus the SAL it never shed Think about what would have happened if Don had interacted with an archipelago or had shallower thermocline depths...could have been way lamer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Well... Maybe I was being a *little* harsh to Juan. But you know what I'm saying. I think we'd all be pretty pissed to have a big, fat, useless Juan sitting in the middle of the Gulf wasting primo oceanic heat content near climatological peak season. C'mon-- admit it. I'm surprised you have so quickly forgotten Grace-2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 it didn't look Irene in NJ bad Hmmm. It looks a *little* better than I remember it. And I see what gymengineer is saying-- there's definitely a core there. I might be remembering it more at landfall, which is of course the moment of a cyclone's lifecycle that I tend to fetishize and fixate on. P.S. Do we have a new adverb, for emphasizing the badness of something-- "Irene-in-NJ"? lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kennethb Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 A couple of comments about Juan. He recorded some of the highest tide heights at several locations here in LA. And as pointed out he was a very wide storm, though I do not recall very much wind here in Baton Rouge, despite his proximity. And he was a late October into early November storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 One of the older MET professors here explained the weak steering flow and how the Euro and GFS differed. I don't want to misquote him, but he said between these 2 high pressure areas is a deformation point. The Euro showcases the systems where the steering would favor a more SW drift, compared to the GFS which would favor a NE drift. Thought it was an interesting discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 The next spring tide cycle is this weekend into early next week. Given the long duration of strengthening E-SE winds, regardless of how much this develops, there will be some issues with at least minor coastal flooding and a higher threat of rip currents along the northern Gulf beaches. Not good timing with Labor Day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 best model consensus ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 best model consensus ever I believe that's called the "squashed spider" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I believe that's called the "squashed spider's nest" More grosser analogy..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Maybe the models are all over the place, but they seem to generally agree on a NW-to-LA scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Maybe the models are all over the place, but they seem to generally agree on a NW-to-LA scenario. FWIW, NAM has TC genesis about 150 miles further west than the 18z run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Re: flooding. Used to it in West Texas. Really don't care....would take a literal flood at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 best model consensus ever My favorite track is the one in the footer of the chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 My favorite track is the one in the footer of the chart. Maybe from a parallel universe??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Not sure how the pumping system has improved pre Katrina days, but NAM's output would test it pretty hard: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 OK, I mmissed Juan in the Navy,, but it toppled a Chevron jackup rig in the Gulf and killed people, makinng Chevron the most evac people when I worked in the Gulf of Mexico, and it was followed by Kate, proof that een November is worth watching. OT, N, V and M keys ow sticking or repeating. Not drunk posting, home cheap laptop posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Certainly some 'canes representin' in the SREF's....and a pretty darn good signal of a ton of rain for C. GOM coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Final talley for the NAM.....with TC still SW of New Orleans, and not moving much: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Also of note is that the GFS and NAM are initializing another low level vorticity max around the FL straits, which the Euro and current analysis do not. FWIW, NAM has TC genesis about 150 miles further west than the 18z run.... Look at the 12z NAM and 12 GFS at hr 12 (18z is similar) Notice the piece of energy, almost as strong as the one associated with our invest. Now look the 0z NAM init. There's a significant difference with the energy east of the main 850mb vort. I think the 0z GFS will have the same correction. It did affect the 0z NAM track. 12z Euro didn't show any significant vorticity east of the invest vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 To go along with LakeEffect's post about the signal for some copious amounts of rain and potential flooding, here's the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 And the EnKF GFS ensemble mean.....and it's MEAN! Notice the track....oh...what....you can't see it??? It circles NO a couple times....note still over NO area out to 168: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Ugh, I'm not into that New Orleans scenario. It looks destructive and boring. Let's get a clean landfall-- of a real cyclone-- in Kenedy County, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Ugh, I'm not into that New Orleans scenario. It looks destructive and boring. Let's get a clean landfall-- of a real cyclone-- in Kenedy County, TX. San Patricio County is closer to HOU, which needs the rain, and puts CRP on what is probably the weaker side. Settled in 1828 by 200 Irish Catholic families recruited by Mexico to settle the Northern frontier. I'm sort of partial to Irish Catholics and Mexicans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 For the love of Pete, we already rebuilt NO once and I'm in no mood to pay $5+/gallon for gasoline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldWxDude Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Until there's a center, I give no credence to any of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Good thing I am a natural born optimist because even the Western Gulf models scream subsidence, heat, dry Northeast winds and little to no rain for 93L. New NAM does swing a decent rainband through Sunday morning for areas generally along and East of US 59 (silver lining kind of guy), and actually puts down >4" BPT area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 SHIPS shows a peak of 83kt before landfall, still lots of shear though, 25kt initially, eventually dropping 15-20kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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