am19psu Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I've heard from someone involved in EnKF TC modeling that the GFS/EnKF ensembles are quite good, much better than the operational GFS ensembles, and perhaps even in the same breath as the ECMWF ensembles. This is second-hand info though, and these are experimental. I wouldn't be surprised. I've been using the EnKF "operational" run as a forecast tool and it has performed superbly worldwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Some very unnerving solutions in that set of EnKF members. In particular the appearance of a strong TC hovering near NO (3 or 4 members) and a couple members looking impressively robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 12z experimental GFS/ENKF ensembles are pretty well clustered around the north central gulf coast. I am not sure how reliable this is though. That is certainly depressing for people with lawns and who like to see living trees in the park, but the old fashioned lower resolution old physics package with 3D or 4D Var or whatever is more optimistic, and as a natural optimist, I choose to remain glass 1/132nd full optimistic now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Even generally accepting the Euro solution, HGX is not finding silver linings... .FIRE WEATHER...SOMEWHAT COUNTER-INTUITIVELY...THE FOCUS OF POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL/NWRN GULF COULD HAVE IMPACTS FOR FIRE WX INTERESTS. WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST (ROUGHLY I-10 AND SOUTH) A TREND OF DEEPENING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING SEABREEZE ACT- IVITY SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE POPS FOR THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH THIS DEVELOPING LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY DEEP NELY FETCH. THE RESULT SHOULD BRING MUCH DRIER AIR AND INCREASED WINDS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH GROUND FUELS REMAINING EXTREMELY DRY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HAVE TO STAY AWARE OF THE SEABREEZE AGAIN TOMORROW AND ITS IMPACTS ON INCREASED S/SELY WINDS. VERY HOT TEMPS AGAIN TOMORROW AS RAIN CHANCES FALL A BIT IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE. 41 && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Weenie comment and doubt it will happen, but I hope this slams into SW TX coast and rains like crazy from the coast to Austin west to West Texas. Can't describe how bad we need the rain. We are only down to one water source at this point. Hopefully it will be big enough to help Houston etc. also. be careful what you wish for because if it rains too hard too fast then you'll get some serious flash flooding. The ground is so dry and pretty much rock solid, you'll likely get something similar to the desert southwest monsoon flash floods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 be careful what you wish for because if it rains too hard too fast then you'll get some serious flash flooding. The ground is so dry and pretty much rock solid, you'll likely get something similar to the desert southwest monsoon flash floods The great Harold Taft, IIRC, was the one who said "Every drought in Texas ends with a flood". HPC progs not encouraging for any Texas drought/fire relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 The great Harold Taft, IIRC, was the one who said "Every drought in Texas ends with a flood". HPC progs not encouraging for any Texas drought/fire relief. Model novelty: 18z GFS spits out a few feet of rainfall for portions of the C/E gulf coast over next 10 days.....uber stagnet TC FTL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 ....and 18z NoGaps depicts similar stall....slightly different flavor. Oh...and keeps Katia under the ridging at T+180..... https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_namer∏=prp&dtg=2011083118&set=Core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 The stalling in the Gulf scenario reminds me of Juan in 1985 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 The stalling in the Gulf scenario reminds me of Juan in 1985 Ugh, that piece of crap? Don't even remind me of it. I see why you brought it up-- given it was a stalled, looping cyclone near LA-- but otherwise, I'm going to assume that scenario won't replay with this. Juan occurred very late in the season and was never a truly tropical cyclone-- so it had no real core and really crappy winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 The stalling in the Gulf scenario reminds me of Juan in 1985 I didn't look yet, but didn't he maintain a max wind speed of 80kts for like 4 days sitting right in the NE GOM? Edit: Nope....I was wrong....there was another storm in the 80's that was parked about 150 miles NW of Tampa...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Ugh, that piece of crap? Don't even remind me of it. I see why you brought it up-- given it was a stalled, looping cyclone near LA-- but otherwise, I'm going to assume that won't scenario won't replay with this. Juan occurred very late in the season and was never a truly tropical cyclone-- so it had no real core and really crappy winds. No wonder you are so twisted. In a tropical sense you were abused growing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 This will be interesting to watch here in the Mobile area. We can certainly use the rain as well considering most of the north central Gulf Coast is 15-20" below normal for the year. However the prospects of dealing with a meandering storm is not exactly appealing to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I didn't look yet, but didn't he maintain a max wind speed of 80kts for like 4 days sitting right in the NE GOM? Edit: Nope....I was wrong....there was another storm in the 80's that was parked about 150 miles NW of Tampa...... You're thinking of Elena 1985. Juan's winds were never really that good, despite some of the operational estimates. No wonder you are so twisted. In a tropical sense you were abused growing up. Might be a grain of truth to that. It was very hard being a budding Tropical Dude in the early- and mid-1980s. There was so little to eat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 It is up to cherry. 1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE ON THURSDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Wow-- that was fast. Note they cite the N Gulf Coast as the area of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 are models showing conditions gradually improving as 93L spins in the gulf? shear looks pretty high right now to me for anything imminent.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 You're thinking of Elena 1985. Juan's winds were never really that good, despite some of the operational estimates. Might be a grain of truth to that. It was very hard being a budding Tropical Dude in the early- and mid-1980s. There was so little to eat. That'd be the storm! I found it a few minutes ago but kids came home and I hadn't seen them for a couple days. Thank's Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 My parents still hate Elena... Of course weather forecasting not being what it is today, they basically had no idea what the hell was going on.... They evacuated Pensacola to Natchez, started coming about halfway back when elena turned NW again and they went back... Only to have Elena go over them as a tropical storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 That'd be the storm! I found it a few minutes ago but kids came home and I hadn't seen them for a couple days. Thank's Josh. You're welcome. What are your thoughts Re: the future of this? I always enjoy your bullishness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 It's interesting that the SHIPS gets this almost to a hurricane by 72 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 It's interesting that the SHIPS gets this almost to a hurricane by 72 hr. It did the same thing for Nicole last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 It's interesting that the SHIPS gets this almost to a hurricane by 72 hr. . Correct me if im wrong but the SHIPS was a beast in terms of forecasting Irene's strength. It was never too bullish, Irene's peak was 120 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 . Correct me if im wrong but the SHIPS was a beast in terms of forecasting Irene's strength. It was never too bullish, Irene's peak was 120 mph. SHIPS does very well with steady state, mature hurricanes that never undergo RI or rapid weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Ugh, that piece of crap? Don't even remind me of it. I see why you brought it up-- given it was a stalled, looping cyclone near LA-- but otherwise, I'm going to assume that scenario won't replay with this. Juan occurred very late in the season and was never a truly tropical cyclone-- so it had no real core and really crappy winds. It wasn't a classic, but Juan didn't look that bad at it's peak WSW of Morgan City... I mean, lopsided, but had an apparent eyewall on the visible satellite and definitely much better looking than Earl. (I know Earl is a pretty low bar to compare any hurricane to) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 You're welcome. What are your thoughts Re: the future of this? I always enjoy your bullishness. As noted earlier regarding the EnKF GFS ensembles, there are some pretty stout looking TC's depicted, and I've honestly just been looking at them since dtk (I think) pointed them out during Irene. Word on the street is they are performing pretty well in their experimental mode. I think (and am hoping for me and my family's sake in Disney next week) that future Lee doesn't get dragged too far east initially, and see a stall (for a bit....not like the GFS 18z 'bust out the Arc' scenario) and then a drift to the SW. Jury is out if this buries itself into N. MX/BRO area or gets strung out and swept into the SE....I don't have a leaning at this point. Intesity-wise.....really kind of a crap shoot with land interaction, parched air over TX, but pretty good OHC and SST's with the ridge in almost ideal location (at least as progged) in a few days...and of course the main factor..... if it stays sufficiently out in the GOM...there is reason for concern. We know what systems can potentially do there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 It wasn't a classic, but Juan didn't look that bad at it's peak WSW of Morgan City... I mean, lopsided, but had an apparent eyewall on the visible satellite and definitely much better looking than Earl. (I know Earl is a pretty low bar to compare any hurricane to) I dunno. I found it pretty hateful. And I don't remember much of an eyewall-- I remember a wide, loose center bordered by a broad swath of stratocumulus on one side. Dude, it made Irene at landfall in Jersey look hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I dunno. I found it pretty hateful. And I don't remember much of an eyewall-- I remember a wide, loose center bordered by a broad swath of stratocumulus on one side. Dude, it made Irene at landfall in Jersey look hawt. it didn't look Irene in NJ bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I dunno. I found it pretty hateful. And I don't remember much of an eyewall-- I remember a wide, loose center bordered by a broad swath of stratocumulus on one side. Dude, it made Irene at landfall in Jersey look hawt. Irene? Again, Juan was no looker, but Irene in NJ?? Heh Here: http://www.aoml.noaa...eviews/1985.pdf Yeah, the east side was pitiful as you point out, but there's a little core there in that photo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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