usedtobe Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Dan, I'd be hesitant to give too much credence to the GFS ensembles when they are forecasting the movement of a tropical system. Their lack of resolution is a distinct problem and the last verification stats I saw about 2 years ago had them losing to the operational models. That may have changed and if so, hopefully someone will correct me. The euro ensembles with their higher resolution probably may be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 To give the NAM credit, it was at-least partially right as it hung Lee off the coast for longer than expected yesterday...and even had the SW drift going on for a bit. In which I believe none of the hurricane models had. I believe yesterday's 12Z hurricane models had Lee over NE Louisiana by now. (all wrong) The NAM gave us all something to think about , rightfully so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Looks like Lee's heading more north than what the plots are. I see where it's suposed to go NNE, then NE, just wondering if this changes the places that were supposed to get heavy rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 We'll see, as slow as he's moving right now, he could still be a little erratic for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 KUNV FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Just pushed out my 00Z SmartCast for the LA/MS areas. Still seeing threat areas for tornadoes and rainfall amounts 1-2" for the next 6 hours across the McComb and Hardy area. Full upload http://smartwxmodel.net/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON LEE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON LEE CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER... UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT33 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 400 AM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Just updated 06Z SmartCast Weather for LA/MS. Currently tracking Jackson, MS, Harding, LA, and Monroe, LA as the highest threat areas. Looking mainly at Flooding rains. Jackson, MS has potential to see another 2-3" of rain in the next 6 hours. Complete data at http://smartwxmodel.net/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Impressive winds today on the Alabama and FL panhandle coasts. Numerous gusts of 50-60 MPH along with coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 It be raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Impressive winds today on the Alabama and FL panhandle coasts. Numerous gusts of 50-60 MPH along with coastal flooding. Wow, nice little storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 The amount of dry air and subsidence behind the departing Lee is amazing. Shreveport 0Z sounding had less than 0.29" of precipitable water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 The amount of dry air and subsidence behind the departing Lee is amazing. Shreveport 0Z sounding had less than 0.29" of precipitable water. That's actually approaching a record minimum for this time of year. Quite a contrast from just 36 hours ago when they had a PWAT of 2.43in which is more than 2 standard deviations above normal! Talk about an air mass change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Lots of interesting features on the vis. sat. this morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Nearing 2 inches of rainfall in NYC and a lot more coming up on the radar. Interesting that the storm is transporting so much dry air from the upper trop. to the ground on it's backside.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 4.40 inches KCHO...just sayin, it's raining. Another thing: the press loves to talk and expound on the damages of tropical systems/ hurricanes; however, what is overlooked are the benefits of rain to the streams, soil and aquifers. Hard to put a $$ on it, but I would venture to guess that it all comes out even or better for humans in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Has Lee surpassed Allison for most damaging US Tropical storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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