Thundersnow12 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 10% tor probs with the 20z outlook from SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 10% tor probs with the 20z outlook from SPC Been that way since the 13z outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Very near Coastal Cameron and Vermillion Parishes now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Very interesting snip from LCH: TROPICAL STORM LEE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AS REVEALED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS A VERY LARGE VORTICITY COMMA CLOUD JUST SOUTHWEST OF MARSH ISLAND...COMPLETE WITH SALIENT DRY SLOT OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF LEE. THE GFS MODEL COMPUTES A WARM-TYPE OCCLUSION CYCLONE...COMPLETE WITH A TROWAL AIRSTREAM MORE TYPICAL OF COOL SEASON DYNAMICS. BECAUSE LEE IS SO LARGE (A LARGE ROSSBY WAVE)...A GENERAL DRIFTING MOTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED (FIRST NORTHWARD NOW WESTWARD). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Very interesting snip from LCH: TROPICAL STORM LEE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AS REVEALED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS A VERY LARGE VORTICITY COMMA CLOUD JUST SOUTHWEST OF MARSH ISLAND...COMPLETE WITH SALIENT DRY SLOT OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF LEE. THE GFS MODEL COMPUTES A WARM-TYPE OCCLUSION CYCLONE...COMPLETE WITH A TROWAL AIRSTREAM MORE TYPICAL OF COOL SEASON DYNAMICS. BECAUSE LEE IS SO LARGE (A LARGE ROSSBY WAVE)...A GENERAL DRIFTING MOTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED (FIRST NORTHWARD NOW WESTWARD). It's looked sub-tropical the entire time, probably one of the main reasons it isn't losing much steam yet despite being half over land. I wonder how they'll handle it in the post-analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Looks to me based on Lake Charles radar and visible satellite that Lee is having some success in an attempt to wrap around convection south if the COC. Can't help but wonder if this "true" center is not in the process of a cyclonic loop within the larger gyre that results in Lee moving a bit more off-marsh later this evening. Lee still has an opportunity to strengthen some I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 A couple of stations very close to the center, albeit non-NWS, are suggesting the minimum pressure is around 986 mb. Given that the radar and satellite presentations are still healthy, I think Lee is still on a strengthening trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 A couple of stations very close to the center, albeit non-NWS, are suggesting the minimum pressure is around 986 mb. Given that the radar and satellite presentations are still healthy, I think Lee is still on a strengthening trend. I see an eye on radar. There aren't 2 centers anymore. Good thing this isn't over SE LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 A couple of stations very close to the center, albeit non-NWS, are suggesting the minimum pressure is around 986 mb. Given that the radar and satellite presentations are still healthy, I think Lee is still on a strengthening trend. Yep. Lee appears to still be deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Perusing buoy obs for a bit, and in-spite of the improved appearance, TS force winds are few if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 From NESDIS: SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/03/11 2206Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2155Z JS . LOCATION...NW FLORIDA/SW ALABAMA/S MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA... LOCATION...E TEXAS... . ATTN WFOS...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...WGRFC... . EVENT...LOW LEVEL CENTER OF LEE MOVING TO THE NW NOW RIGHT ON SW LA COAST. HEAVIEST RAINS TO THE NW OF THE CENTER AS WELL AS WITH BANDS WRAPPING TO THE NW ACROSS S MS/SW AL/FAR NW FL. . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VISIBLE ANIMATION THROUGH 2155Z SHOWS THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER OF LEE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF SW LA NEAR S VERMILLION PARRISH WITH AN APPARENT SLIGHT WESTWARD WOBBLE IN THE FEATURE SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAS RECENTLY BEEN NOTED WITH A BAND TO THE NW OF THE CENTER OVER SW LA WHERE SATELLITE ESTIMATED RATES ARE NEAR 1.5"/HALF HOUR. HAVE ALSO SEEN RECENT 3 HOUR OBSERVED METAR TOTALS ENDING AT 21Z OF 1.25" TO AROUND 1.5" ACROSS W CENT AND SW LA. VIS/IR IMAGERY AND COMPOSITE RADAR DATA SHOW THIS AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS SPREAD FARTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE TX/LA BORDER INTO E AND SE TX. TO THE EAST, VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DRY SLOT HAS WRAPPED AROUND FROM SE INTO S CENT LA WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SEEN. SOME CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THE DRY SLOT DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE MORE INTENSE BANDS HAVE FOCUSED ON AREAS TO THE EAST OVER S MS/SW AL/FAR NW FL. IN THIS REGION, 3 HOURLY METAR OBSERVED TOTALS ANS SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE SHOWING 1-2" TOTALS WITH ISOLATED SPOTS NEAR 3" AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2145-0045Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TRENDS POINT TOWARD THE RECENT FLARE UP OVER SW LA AS WELL AS THE CONTINUATION OF BANDS SPREADING INLAND OVER S MA/SW AL/FAR NW FL AS THE PRIMARY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AREAS FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. CONCERN EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSE BANDS TO FORM TO THE NW AND N OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF LEE RESULTING IN VERY INTENSE RAIN RATES AND SIGNIFICANT TOTALS ACROSS SW TO S CENT LA. TO THE EAST, SEE NO REAL LET UP IN THE PERSISTENT BANDS MOVING INLAND OVER S MS/SW AL/FAR NW FL AS VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS WELL DEFINED OVERSHOOTING TOPS OFFSHORE SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST. ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 1-3" ARE LIKELY IN THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 The 18z GFDL defects and joins the NAM ranks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 It would be a coup for the NAM but I'm not sure it can be discounted given that the system is well within range and not at the edges of its areal coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 The 18z GFDL defects and joins the NAM ranks. Parts of Texas would gladly take the 18z GFDL, though it does reduce the amount of rain associated with the system before landfall, likely for similar reasons as Don's vanishing act. Otherwise, a fair number of the 18z GFS ensembles take the system Southeast initially, though none with a westward motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Parts of Texas would gladly take the 18z GFDL, though it does reduce the amount of rain associated with the system before landfall, likely for similar reasons as Don's vanishing act. Otherwise, a fair number of the 18z GFS ensembles take the system Southeast initially, though none with a westward motion. The EC doesn't really show a SE motion, but it just kind of drifts it around for a good 24-36 hours before moving it just N of due E. It does not really show it gaining much latitude until it gets to MS/AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I'm so bored that I'm sitting here looping radar to see if the rain gets into Houston. I'm rooting for the NAM because its more interesting than a decaying TS over land and it may be more conducive to letting Katia make it further west. It would be a coup for the NAM but I'm not sure it can be discounted given that the system is well within range and not at the edges of its areal coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 The EC doesn't really show a SE motion, but it just kind of drifts it around for a good 24-36 hours before moving it just N of due E. It does not really show it gaining much latitude until it gets to MS/AL. Just FWIW, the GFS EnKF and FIMY both show Lee making a bit of a cyclonic loop similar to what it looks like it's doing now, and moving back over the Gulf before turning NE across SE LA and into SE MS and W AL. Actually look fairly similar to the EC, only they seem to get a little farther S before going NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Galveston is getting mighty close to TS conditions: Wind from the NNW (330 degrees) at 35 MPH (30 KT) gusting to 44 MPH (38 KT) Visibility 10 mile(s) Sky conditions overcast Precipitation last hour 0.07 inches Temperature 81.0 F (27.2 C) Dew Point 69.1 F (20.6 C) Relative Humidity 67% Pressure (altimeter) 29.56 in. Hg (1001 hPa) ob KGLS 040052Z AUTO 33030G38KT 10SM OVC085 27/21 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 35041/0025 SLP010 P0007 T02720206 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I'm so bored that I'm sitting here looping radar to see if the rain gets into Houston. I'm rooting for the NAM because its more interesting than a decaying TS over land and it may be more conducive to letting Katia make it further west. I don't have much faith in it outside 24 hours or so. I'd actually probably rather it be wrong so I get something up here but it's a cool solution should it come to pass which it would still be pretty hard not to doubt at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Galveston is getting mighty close to TS conditions: Wind from the NNW (330 degrees) at 35 MPH (30 KT) gusting to 44 MPH (38 KT) Visibility 10 mile(s) Sky conditions overcast Precipitation last hour 0.07 inches Temperature 81.0 F (27.2 C) Dew Point 69.1 F (20.6 C) Relative Humidity 67% Pressure (altimeter) 29.56 in. Hg (1001 hPa) ob KGLS 040052Z AUTO 33030G38KT 10SM OVC085 27/21 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 35041/0025 SLP010 P0007 T02720206 The center looks like it has drifted SW based on observational data, and is probably offshore. It certainly seems to be SW of the oil platform KVNP which is reporting a SE wind with an SLP of 988.5 mb. Some of the strongest winds are definitely occurring on the NW side of the system, with a platform S of KLCH reporting 50 kt sustained (obviously at a substantial elevation, but still). One other note of interest - looks to be several supercells developing in the mid level dry slot due S of the MS Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 The specific spot where the center is doesn't seem to get great coverage from Lake Charles or New Orleans radar. It's kind of toward the edge of Lakes Charles best range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I'm thinking I may see the center on radar just slightly offshore again just south of whatever that county line is. The specific spot where the center is doesn't seem to get great coverage from Lake Charles or New Orleans radar. It's kind of toward the edge of Lakes Charles best range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 The center looks like it has drifted SW based on observational data, and is probably offshore. It certainly seems to be SW of the oil platform KVNP which is reporting a SE wind with an SLP of 988.5 mb. Some of the strongest winds are definitely occurring on the NW side of the system, with a platform S of KLCH reporting 50 kt sustained (obviously at a substantial elevation, but still). One other note of interest - looks to be several supercells developing in the mid level dry slot due S of the MS Gulf Coast. Yes I was just about to post this..a SW wobble based on that platform reading.. it looks like an occluding low (as LCH pointed out) but around the center things wrapping up now just south of the county line so a warm core occluding low over water still interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 The 00Z NAM continues to advertise a WSW motion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 A piece is kind of breaking off and getting entangled with the front moving by, while the low level center drifts south southwest deeper into the Gulf. In Ivan (I think) back in 2004, something sort of like that happened...low level swirl detached from the developing extra tropical low around NC or VA and did a bizarre loop back down into the Gulf, while the ET low drenched the Northeast and exited into the North Atlantic. The 00Z NAM continues to advertise a WSW motion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 The NAM is so OTL, no way it does that south movement. At least NHC hopes so since that would be one of the more notable track busts in recent memory. It will very likely stall soon, then slowly drift east then ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Yeah through 48, not much rain for the desert areas of Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 NAM looks like the euro from several days ago. Would be fascinating to see two llc's split apart like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Barely perceptible rain, but the winds are gusting pretty decently, probably near 30 knots on occasion. Gusting 38 mph at IAH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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