mike2010 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Two runs in a row of the NAM have rotated Lee back down pretty far into the GOM- this seems extreme and it is the NAM but this does show Lee may have a few tricks up its sleeve and this scrape by the coast now may not be the real landfall which may wait another day or two? This still a hard to forecast system.... Most of the 12Z hurricane models still have it going NE though. How interesting would this be if NAM beats em all. (considering how well it's beaten the others during the last couple winters / for winter storms) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 I P.S. the 12Z nam looks to be on crack moving the low west and then east and still having it off the coast at 42 hrs or so. good luck with that. Wow, the NAM *better* be on crack or a lot of folks will have a lot of egg to wipe off their faces- it stalls Lee way down in the GOM and strengthens it- LOL (I hope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 After a quick initial look...the NAM looks like a solution where the mid level center may continue to move northeast while the low levels gets stuck in the Marshes and drifts back out in the water...seems to me like we have had Gulf Storms do that in the past, for some reason Ivan (2004) pops into my mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Wow, the NAM *better* be on crack or a lot of folks will have a lot of egg to wipe off their faces- it stalls Lee way down in the GOM and strengthens it- LOL (I hope) I'll certainly be one of them. lol but have had egg all over me before so it won't be a new experience. It's hard for me to see the westward jog. I think it more likely that the secondary low that it develops in AL is really going to be lee. Still, my thinking may be too linear. The nam certainly looks to be the low probability solution but that doesn't completely rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Not that I know a great deal, but I can't think of one good reason why Lee would retrograde back towards the main ridge axis over the SW CONUS. Its not like a ridge is building to the North and East of it to shunt it that way. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 But for 80 miles. Just fair wx cu here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Lee has stalled, pressure down a couple mb. SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 91.8W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 GFS and other guidance put the NAM scenario to rest- will probably stay put for 24 hours or so then go ENE or NE. This is probably its max intensity. Once it goes east, there could be a fair number of tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 GFS and other guidance put the NAM scenario to rest- will probably stay put for 24 hours or so then go ENE or NE. This is probably its max intensity. Once it goes east, there could be a fair number of tornadoes. Not sure about that, I don't think NHC expected Lee to stall out already. If we can't get forecasts right for 12 hours, we could forget about 2 days in advance. GFS was trending towards the NAM as well at 12z. ( more southward with both Lee and Katia ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 I like Lee, for some reason I enjoy watching the visible sat.......Go Lee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 17:56Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307) Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2011 Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 5 Observation Number: 15 A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 17:40:30Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°15'N 92°29'W (29.25N 92.4833W) B. Center Fix Location: 72 miles (116 km) to the SSW (202°) from Lafayette, LA, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,343m (4,406ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the ESE (115°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 205° at 41kts (From the SSW at ~ 47.2mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the ESE (113°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 990mb (29.23 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft) K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:07:50Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 More fair weather cu, I can see the edge of the denser cirrus shield almost to my neighborhood, and enough of a breeze the taller palms in the neighborhood, not bendy, but all the fronds blown to one side. I can claim Lee, along with the final landfall of Ivan, if I ever do an "I survived" signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 More fair weather cu, I can see the edge of the denser cirrus shield almost to my neighborhood, and enough of a breeze the taller palms in the neighborhood, not bendy, but all the fronds blown to one side. I can claim Lee, along with the final landfall of Ivan, if I ever do an "I survived" signature. So, you survived Lee's subsidence zone. Interesting ... More to the thread, I note K***'s post. Am I to gather from the flight info that Lee is re-centering S&W of the NHC position?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USN Ben Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 I thought the GFS ensembles were a little amusing. Quite the outlier it's got there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 This is the least warm-core-looking purely tropical storm I think I've ever seen. Looks very much like a strong extratropical cyclone. Compare it to this one: Of course, that's just an illusion. Shear and dry air are preventing Lee from gaining the symmetry we all know and love in tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Someone is going to get shafted early this week with heavy rain! I mean possible 8" will make someone very happy, maybe Katia can join in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 If you can claim Lee based on that, I can claim Irene. Thick cirrus and even outer rainbands, plus a breeze. I forgot, daytime rain band at my office the day Katrina made landfall. Not sure its making it down, but reflectivity about to enter extreme Northeast Harris County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Can someone direct me to the place where I may find total rainfall amounts so far? Please and thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 This is the least warm-core-looking purely tropical storm I think I've ever seen. Looks very much like a strong extratropical cyclone. Compare it to this one: Of course, that's just an illusion. Shear and dry air are preventing Lee from gaining the symmetry we all know and love in tropical systems. All it needs is the cold air strato-cu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Can someone direct me to the place where I may find total rainfall amounts so far? Please and thank you. For the New Orleans area - http://radar.weather...uct=NTP&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Well, I've actually survived Katrina, Rita, Gustav, Ike, Hermine, and probably at least 10 others by your standards. The first 5 were actuals. I have had no weather of interest at my house in over a year. No, freezing drizzle in February. OK, almost no weather at my house in over a year. I take what I can get. Active tornado warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Heaviest totals I see from ASOS are in the 7-8" range from Boothville to NO. However PQL is up to 6.61" and will be in the moisture train for a while. Those model runs while gave a bullseye in S. AL/MS Coast may be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html You can see two centers dumbelling around eachother. . Maybe we should give it two names? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Just pushed out my SmartCast for the LA/MS areas for the next six hours. Seeing some sites with 3-4" of rain potential for the next few hours. Uploaded all the output for all the cities for LA/MS at http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 i think houston should start getting excited! I agree and so does the 18z NAM...continuing with the SW drift. EDIT : Katia more south as well at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 I agree and so does the 18z NAM...continuing with the SW drift. Lee's tail comes to life and becomes it's own entity and sacrifices to the westerlies gods so his father can complete his mission... doesn't seem very plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The NAM must feel awfully lonely down there: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 4 feet of surge at New Orleans now, impressive for a tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Not exactly one to weaken quickly over land INIT 03/2100Z 29.4N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 29.8N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1800Z 30.2N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0600Z 30.5N 91.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/1800Z 31.2N 89.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/1800Z 33.0N 87.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/1800Z 34.5N 85.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1800Z 37.0N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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