Scott747 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al932011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108311813 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2011, DB, O, 2011083118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932011 AL, 93, 2011083118, , BEST, 0, 240N, 860W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Euro strengthens 93Lto 985mb at 144 hrs. stronger than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 12z Euro strengthens it to a hurricane and stalls it just south of the TX/LA border for 4 days. It barely misses the trough and looks like the ridge is building back, making it drift to the SW finally (@ day 6). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 fwiw 12z euro brings into S TX as a formidable storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 One again a pretty interesting evolution from the ECWMF, but I'm not sure I'd go for the long range stalling solution just yet... The key seems to be that the ECWMF takes 93L significantly further west in the short term than the GFS, so the strength of the ridging over the next 48 hours will be key to see if this system gets picked up by the mid-latitude trough or if its left behind in the GOM if it manages to move further west than the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 fwiw 12z euro brings into S TX as a formidable storm Looks like a hurricane with a central pressure in the 960s at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Variance in the statistical track guidance suggests GFS may be forecasting unfavorable shear. 933 WHXX01 KWBC 311850 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1850 UTC WED AUG 31 2011 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110831 1800 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 110831 1800 110901 0600 110901 1800 110902 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 24.1N 87.0W 25.3N 89.2W 26.5N 91.4W 27.1N 93.1W BAMD 24.1N 87.0W 25.0N 88.3W 25.9N 89.4W 26.6N 90.3W BAMM 24.1N 87.0W 25.2N 88.8W 26.2N 90.5W 26.9N 91.8W LBAR 24.1N 87.0W 25.2N 88.4W 26.4N 89.8W 27.4N 91.0W SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 110902 1800 110903 1800 110904 1800 110905 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 27.6N 94.5W 26.9N 96.4W 24.9N 98.0W 23.0N 101.1W BAMD 27.3N 90.8W 28.3N 90.9W 28.9N 91.2W 28.9N 91.0W BAMM 27.5N 92.9W 27.1N 93.6W 25.8N 91.4W 28.2N 88.3W LBAR 28.3N 92.0W 29.0N 93.1W 29.1N 94.1W 29.0N 94.8W SHIP 59KTS 69KTS 73KTS 71KTS DSHP 59KTS 69KTS 73KTS 71KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 24.1N LONCUR = 87.0W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 8KT LATM12 = 22.5N LONM12 = 85.5W DIRM12 = 320DEG SPDM12 = 14KT LATM24 = 19.8N LONM24 = 83.0W WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM $$ NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 The 18z SHIPS was initialized with 19kt of shear, keeps shear in the moderate to strong range (generally 17-25kt, though peaks at 29kt) for the next few days. It does however bring it up to hurricane strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 How often does the LBAR verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Weenie Euro map ... 956mb from 168-174 hrs and 960 just before landfall at 180 ... Kenedy Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I really think a combined GFS/Euro solution is in the works for 93L... in that there will be a westwardness to 93L initially, but I believe the trough that is coming later in the period is being underforecasted by the Euro... albeit the 12Z run seems more eager for 93L to be "sensed" by the trough as it gets pulled northward into Texas versus the 00Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 How often does the LBAR verify? It's ok in the deep tropics.... ie, E of 55W and S of 15N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I imagine the intensity of 93L will be highly track-dependent. If it stalls it will upwell itself to death. It if gets caught it will remain in a high-shear regime until landfall. The 12Z Euro scenario of getting trapped under the ridge and heading SW may be the best scenario for the storm as upper level conditions improve over time. P.S. If I were to pick a track right now I'd favor the Euro track. 1) The Euro has the best track record of all models and the best handle on midlatitude features. I don't think any prior run of the Euro had 93L turning northeastward (correct me if I'm wrong). 2) Based on persistence the Southern U.S. ridge will [again] be stronger than progged. 3) Because of the initial shear and perhaps upwelling, 93L should remain weak until it makes that turn (at the earliest), which disfavors the more poleward track. 4) 93L is a pretty large system. Progressive troughs tend to have a more difficult time completely recurving large, bulky TC's. But again this is very low confidence and I could definitely see the NE turn happen as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Variance in the statistical track guidance suggests GFS may be forecasting unfavorable shear. 933 WHXX01 KWBC 311850 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1850 UTC WED AUG 31 2011 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110831 1800 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 110831 1800 110901 0600 110901 1800 110902 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 24.1N 87.0W 25.3N 89.2W 26.5N 91.4W 27.1N 93.1W BAMD 24.1N 87.0W 25.0N 88.3W 25.9N 89.4W 26.6N 90.3W BAMM 24.1N 87.0W 25.2N 88.8W 26.2N 90.5W 26.9N 91.8W LBAR 24.1N 87.0W 25.2N 88.4W 26.4N 89.8W 27.4N 91.0W SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 110902 1800 110903 1800 110904 1800 110905 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 27.6N 94.5W 26.9N 96.4W 24.9N 98.0W 23.0N 101.1W BAMD 27.3N 90.8W 28.3N 90.9W 28.9N 91.2W 28.9N 91.0W BAMM 27.5N 92.9W 27.1N 93.6W 25.8N 91.4W 28.2N 88.3W LBAR 28.3N 92.0W 29.0N 93.1W 29.1N 94.1W 29.0N 94.8W SHIP 59KTS 69KTS 73KTS 71KTS DSHP 59KTS 69KTS 73KTS 71KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 24.1N LONCUR = 87.0W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 8KT LATM12 = 22.5N LONM12 = 85.5W DIRM12 = 320DEG SPDM12 = 14KT LATM24 = 19.8N LONM24 = 83.0W WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM $$ NNNN I would point out that the wording in the TWO would imply that NHC is thinking there may be a subtropical nature to the development. All of the models are certainly pretty bullish now on deepening the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I would point out that the wording in the TWO would imply that NHC is thinking there may be a subtropical nature to the development. All of the models are certainly pretty bullish now on deepening the system. It's fair enough for them to point that out with the ULL sitting there... but in the end, this is more likely than not to be tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 215 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF WITHIN A FEW DAYS ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SOMETHING FORMING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE PREFERRED NWP MODEL IS STILL THE ECMWF WHEN TRANSITIONING FROM THE SHORT TERM TO THE LONG TERM. FOR NOW... BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL GULF...AND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE WEST OR NORTHWEST GULF WILL OVERRIDE TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...FROM ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO FULLY CLOSED OFF TROPICAL CYCLONE...LEAVES SIGNIFICANT DOUBT AS TO A FINAL SOLUTION FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE TRYING TO WRAP THIS SYSTEM UP IN THE NW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT MODELS ARE COMPLETELY APART ON WHICH DIRECTION IS MOVING...AND ARE CHANGING RUN TO RUN...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. MOST MODELS DO AGREE THAT WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED FOR THE WEEKEND FROM THE NORTH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RIP CURRENT RISK AND INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRING FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WEST TEXAS...WHILE STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH CUTS NE TO SW ACROSS THE GULF. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI...WHICH WOULD HELP ENHANCE THE GULF WAVE. DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY...WITH TEMPS AGAIN SOARING ABOVE 100 DEGREES. MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND ENOUGH TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED. AGAIN...KEEP A WATCH ON THE LATEST NWS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE RAPIDLY UNTIL THEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 It's fair enough for them to point that out with the ULL sitting there... but in the end, this is more likely than not to be tropical. Agreed. And I agree with phil882 about the ECMWF - it seems to be trending more toward the idea of it getting picked up by the trough even though it just misses it in the actual operational run, and that is a solution that would be more favored climatologically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 It's fair enough for them to point that out with the ULL sitting there... but in the end, this is more likely than not to be tropical. And if it doesn't have 100% tropical characteristics to start initially, water temps of some 32C will remedy that rather quickly....And I wouldn't overplay the upwelling too much at this time, regarding a stall....we are at peak annual SST for down there, we haven't had an apppreciable storm down there, and anomolies are quite positive. Coupled with that we still have a few days of modeling to go prior to any stall...and the area that the storm would have to reside to be left hangin' is not very large. I'd think N. O. and points west along to the extreme NE TX coast should prepare for copious rainfall due to a slowly drifting (maybe a little loop) strong TS or weak Cat 1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Agreed. And I agree with phil882 about the ECMWF - it seems to be trending more toward the idea of it getting picked up by the trough even though it just misses it in the actual operational run, and that is a solution that would be more favored climatologically. Yup, and that was what I was mentioning in my post above... granted the GFS is faster than the Euro (shock), but since the Euro is trending to the idea of it being picked up, I have to go with some combination of the two.... both an average in terms of speed and eventual location of landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 The worst possible thing that could happen would be a stall that just eats up OHC without producing something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 The worst possible thing that could happen would be a stall that just eats up OHC without producing something good. A stall just off shore Texas that drops a foot of rain over a 5 day period at my house with little sea level rise would actually be the best thing ever. Doubt it happens, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasons Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 A stall just off shore Texas that drops a foot of rain over a 5 day period at my house with little sea level rise would actually be the best thing ever. Doubt it happens, however. I have to agree. I'd take a Cat 1 if it meant some good rains...but the absolute worst possible thing for my pals down on Galveston would be what some consider "something good". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Yup, and that was what I was mentioning in my post above... granted the GFS is faster than the Euro (shock), but since the Euro is trending to the idea of it being picked up, I have to go with some combination of the two.... both an average in terms of speed and eventual location of landfall. Agreed. I did find one robust system that behaved in at least a manner somewhat like what some of the models are showing as far as movement back to the SW, though. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Fern_(1971) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Agreed. I did find one robust system that behaved in at least a manner somewhat like what some of the models are showing as far as movement back to the SW, though. http://en.wikipedia....cane_Fern_(1971) Anita moved SW too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 12z experimental GFS/ENKF ensembles are pretty well clustered around the north central gulf coast. I am not sure how reliable this is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Weenie comment and doubt it will happen, but I hope this slams into SW TX coast and rains like crazy from the coast to Austin west to West Texas. Can't describe how bad we need the rain. We are only down to one water source at this point. Hopefully it will be big enough to help Houston etc. also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Looks to me like this will form somewhere south of LA- then it is a knife edge on whether it gets picked up and moves east or NE like the GFS says or will it miss the trough as the majority of the guidance has and then move back W or SW to Texas. The latter scenario seems a bit more likely right now, but until something actually forms we will likely get a few more twists and turns from the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 12z experimental GFS/ENKF ensembles are pretty well clustered around the north central gulf coast. I am not sure how reliable this is though. I've heard from someone involved in EnKF TC modeling that the GFS/EnKF ensembles are quite good, much better than the operational GFS ensembles, and perhaps even in the same breath as the ECMWF ensembles. This is second-hand info though, and these are experimental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Looks to me like this will form somewhere south of LA- then it is a knife edge on whether it gets picked up and moves east or NE like the GFS says or will it miss the trough as the majority of the guidance has and then move back W or SW to Texas. The latter scenario seems a bit more likely right now, but until something actually forms we will likely get a few more twists and turns from the models. Agreed, except I might slightly lean toward your former solution just due to climatology and experience which suggests that model forecasts of stalling TCs along the Gulf Coast happen less frequently than the models forecast them. In any event, the 12Z EC ensemble mean is almost on top of the operational through day 5. Then the spread looks to increase dramatically with one cluster probably taking the system NE toward PNS and the other system SW toward BRO, and just based on the depth in the mean probably a few more robust members are on the SW solution of the ops than on the NE solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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