Stormlover74 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 I agree, way too warm and pushed the foliage til the 3rd week of November and then the trees were bare like a week later Such a brutal fall.......our coldest lows temps happen in september, until late november came around. Give me a text book fall and chilly/windy halloween. The last 2-3 falls have been pretty good.....love looking at the fall color and that crisp morning air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Wow, not in our area, but the DC area is getting HAMMERED! 15" of rain and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Decent radiational cooling signal for the usual spots if the 7-10 day pattern is close to forecast. If Mt. Zucker still existed that type of map would produce upper 30's up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 If Mt. Zucker still existed that type of map would produce upper 30's up there. It may produce frost here in the true Mt Zucker...1300' in the Monadnocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 It may produce frost here in the true Mt Zucker...1300' in the Monadnocks. Congrats on your higher elevation, now you can pretend you live at 2300 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Clearing out nicely now temps up near 80 - much needed! Bye Bye Katia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Clearing out nicely now temps up near 80 - much needed! Bye Bye Katia the best she has looked in days, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 All of the Reservoirs in Upstate NY are more than 100% of capacity which has never been the case this late in the year and perhaps not in any year period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Such a brutal fall.......our coldest lows temps happen in september, until late november came around. Give me a text book fall and chilly/windy halloween. The last 2-3 falls have been pretty good.....love looking at the fall color and that crisp morning air. I am with you on this. I'd like an '02 or '03 fall please. Seasonable early and then into the tank starting in mid-October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Such a brutal fall.......our coldest lows temps happen in september, until late november came around. Give me a text book fall and chilly/windy halloween. The last 2-3 falls have been pretty good.....love looking at the fall color and that crisp morning air. The first half of OCT 2007 was horrible.Temps in the 80s and a 90 degree day with dewpoints 68-70 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 I am with you on this. I'd like an '02 or '03 fall please. Seasonable early and then into the tank starting in mid-October. Agree. 2005 and 2007 were both wretched falls, with leaves still on trees into mid November. My idea of the ideal fall is a nice step-down in September, 70s by day, 50s by night. Near normal temps, then first freeze by mid October with below avg temps for Oct, peak foliage around/just before Halloween. Then indian summer-ish for much of November before we head into the tank by Thanksgiving. Many of our snowiest winters featured the cold Oct/warm Nov combination. Also, cold Octobers have about a 67% correlation to colder than normal winters (DJF). Have to say I'm starting to get sick of the humidity now, but give me another 3-4 weeks of warmth, then its winter mode by mid October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Katia's swells really delivered for the Quicksilver Pro New York Final earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 I concur, nothing worse than heat and humidity and then bam 40s with no in between. Same thing with spring, wet and cold and then all of a sudden upper 80s. Give me my four seasons in all their glory and I'm happy :-) Agree. 2005 and 2007 were both wretched falls, with leaves still on trees into mid November. My idea of the ideal fall is a nice step-down in September, 70s by day, 50s by night. Near normal temps, then first freeze by mid October with below avg temps for Oct, peak foliage around/just before Halloween. Then indian summer-ish for much of November before we head into the tank by Thanksgiving. Many of our snowiest winters featured the cold Oct/warm Nov combination. Also, cold Octobers have about a 67% correlation to colder than normal winters (DJF). Have to say I'm starting to get sick of the humidity now, but give me another 3-4 weeks of warmth, then its winter mode by mid October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Cold shot is driven more by the PNA ridge in the west than any blocking via the NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 the euro has backed off on the cold shot... it's mainly the GFS at this point (with respect to the 850 0c line making it to our region), and the GFS is known to be too aggressive with the polar jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 There is no blocking right now in the north atlantic, which is preferable if we want to see the block take hold when it should/can snow. We had/have a pna spike as alphy points out. Even in the winter time -nao doesn't guarantee cold (see 2009-2010) if canada isn't cold. Re the cold shot: of course the modles have backed off, there is no snow cover and the models are always over aggressive in the long range with cold (and heat as we saw this summer) especially early in the season. Still, that is an impressive cool shot for this time of year and will def. feel chilly in the a.m. and the high temps for a day or two for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 This time of the year I look forward to cold fronts bringing lower dewpoints rather than any truly chilly air.Sept 1989,1991,1992 and 1993 all had impressive cold shots with low temp below 45.Sept 1991 had a low of 44 twice with 2 seperate shots,1992 had the lowest temp for Sept over the last 30 years at least with a low of 41 or 42 on the the 30th IIRC.1980,1983,2005 and late Sept 2007 were the most horrible I can remember for heat and high dewpoints.Temps in the 40s in Sept are becoming few and far between over the past 15 years and it is more likely than not to have a warmer Sept than normal these years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Great shot of Katia passing by to our east yesterday taken from the International Space Station. Check out all the sediment flowing down the Hudson . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 I wonder how long it will take for NYC to record a temperature 49 or lower...It used to come in mid Sept when I was young...Lately the first 40's happen the first week of October... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Noreaster More rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 better get those first trace guesses in, GFS is starting to show solutions in the long range, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 better get those first trace guesses in, GFS is starting to show solutions in the long range, lol. There's youre problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 The 18Z GFS makes me laugh at 156 hours. Its a classic excellent timing event, one that in the winter would produce a decent snowfall...the low forms a day or so after the high drops south from Canada. Of course the 500mb setup makes the surface depiction look suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 There's youre problem And yours is reading comprehension. The contest guesses need to be in by october 1st and it was a reminder that winter will be here before we know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 The first half of OCT 2007 was horrible.Temps in the 80s and a 90 degree day with dewpoints 68-70 degrees. speak for yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 This time of the year I look forward to cold fronts bringing lower dewpoints rather than any truly chilly air.Sept 1989,1991,1992 and 1993 all had impressive cold shots with low temp below 45.Sept 1991 had a low of 44 twice with 2 seperate shots,1992 had the lowest temp for Sept over the last 30 years at least with a low of 41 or 42 on the the 30th IIRC.1980,1983,2005 and late Sept 2007 were the most horrible I can remember for heat and high dewpoints.Temps in the 40s in Sept are becoming few and far between over the past 15 years and it is more likely than not to have a warmer Sept than normal these years. 1995 may have been the worst. It wasnt necessarily record heat but goodness was it mild in September and October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 1995 may have been the worst. It wasnt necessarily record heat but goodness was it mild in September and October. The first month of true Autumn was the warmest on record in 2007 as well as Oct 2007 tied for the warmest on record.I believe I had something like 15 days 80 or above with 7 days 85 or above and one 90 betwen Sept 21st and Oct 8th 2007.OCT 1995 was in the Top 10 warmest as it had 6 days of 80 or above but it does not match 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 The first month of true Autumn was the warmest on record in 2007 as well as Oct 2007 tied for the warmest on record.I believe I had something like 15 days 80 or above with 7 days 85 or above and one 90 betwen Sept 21st and Oct 8th 2007.OCT 1995 was in the Top 10 warmest as it had 6 days of 80 or above but it does not match 2007. You knew with that torch in October of 2007 that we were fooked for winter weather. October 95 was different, IIRC, the heat was mostly early and then the end of the month cooled down siginificantly. October 2007 was unmitigated winter is going to suck torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 we are running out of time if you want one more warm spell...Here are late season warm spells with three or more consecutive days 80 or higher... ... Year..consecutive 80+ Max. 1881..9/23-9/28......6...91 1891..10/3-10/5......3...86 1895..9/20-9/23......4...97 1898..10/3-10/5......3...81 1905..9/28-9/30......3...88 1914..9/20-9/24......5...95 1920..9/23-9/26......4...88 1921..9/28-9/30......3...87 1922..9/30-10/3......4...88 1927..9/30-10/2......3...90 1930..9/20-9/26......7...87 1934..9/23-9/27......5...83 1941..9/21-9/23......3...91 1941..10/4-10/6......3...94 1946..9/25-9/27......3...83 1946..10/4-10/7......4...87 1948..9/27-9/29......3...84 1949..10/9-10/12....4...88 1950..10/1-10/3......3...86 1951..9/19-9/23......5...85 1954..10/1-10/4......4...86 1954..10/11-10/14..4...87 1959..9/21-9/24......4...90 1959..9/27-9/30......4...83 1959..10/4-10/6......3...88 1961..9/22-9/25......4...90 1965..9/21-9/23......3...88 1968..9/17-9/26....10...87 1968..10/1-10/3......3...85 1970..9/21-9/26......6...94 1972..9/25-9/27......3...86 1980..9/21-9/23......3...94 1984..9/23-9/25......3...86 2004..9/21-9/23......3...82 2007..9/25-9/27......3...87 2007..10/4-10/8......5...87 2010..9/22-9/25......4...89 1959 had three periods three days or more above 80. 1968 had two but it also had the longest streak for late September with 10. ............................................................................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 KLGA 111551Z COR 34008KT 10SM FEW000 SCT050 SCT250 24/13 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP196 FU FEW000 FU AND DEBRIS PLUME SW FROM SFC-040 DRFTG SE T02440128 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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