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September General Discussion


IsentropicLift

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The NAM has been pathetic from start to finish with this event, you only need to look at the radar to see just how wrong it is

look at its initialization

nam_namer_000_sim_radar.gif

It has the rain too far displaced to the SW, then it has the rain displaced too far north instead of over NE PA, and it shows nothing of the new rain and storms firing over central NJ

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Really amazing when you consider the average return period of these types of events. For example, the 45-day average recurrence interval for 23.5" of rain is 1000 years. With 24.28" over just 39 days, this has been surpassed. In other words, based on these statistics, we're looking at a well over 1000 yr event over the past 30-45 days.

FYI, I'm using this site for the stats (used Jersey City since there are updated stats for NJ).

Really remarkable snow and rainfall amounts over relatively short periods of time since late December.

Just using NYC....

12/26/10-1/27/11...56 inches of snow

8/1/11-9/8/11........24.28 inches of rain

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Really amazing when you consider the average return period of these types of events. For example, the 45-day average recurrence interval for 23.5" of rain is 1000 years. With 24.28" over just 39 days, this has been surpassed. In other words, based on these statistics, we're looking at a well over 1000 yr event over the past 30-45 days.

FYI, I'm using this site for the stats (used Jersey City since there are updated stats for NJ).

Interesting site.I had my heaviest 12 and 24 hour rainfall total here back on August 14th.

That spotter is very close to my location.

LIDO BEACH 10.87 625 PM 8/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER

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Now watch us struggle for precipitation when it matters, 3-4 months from now, which I think is a distinct possibility.

Hoping for at worst an 08-09 type winter. We broke 30 inches but most of the storm systems that effected us were starved of moisture leading to a lot of nickel and dime stuff. If we can achieve the 08-09 temperature profile and manage 20-25 inches of snow, I'll be overjoyed.

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Hoping for at worst an 08-09 type winter. We broke 30 inches but most of the storm systems that effected us was starved of moisture leading to a lot of nickel and dime stuff. If we can achieve the 08-09 temperature profile and manage 20-25 inches of snow, I'll be overjoyed.

Yeah. 08-09 was not bad at all in my part of Queens. A lot of small events, but spread out over most of the winter.

Was well above average and finished with 33.4" that year.

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08-09 was fine overall except for the fact that my area barely squeezed out 4-5" during the march storm when many others got their first 10-12" storm in over 3 years

Yeah. 08-09 was not bad at all in my part of Queens. A lot of small events, but spread out over most of the winter.

Was well above average and finished with 33.4" that year.

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Possibly but the last time we got this cold this early was '07 when we had lows in the 40s mid month and highs in the 60s. a week later it hit 90 and we had an incredibly warm October.

Yes, that is some impressive chilliness for this early in the met fall season. Everyone better get their guesses in for fist trace, could be a sign for an early season snowfall.

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Possibly but the last time we got this cold this early was '07 when we had lows in the 40s mid month and highs in the 60s. a week later it hit 90 and we had an incredibly warm October.

That was a first year nina following a pretty strong nino and a very different summer before the winter so I am not that worried.

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Yes, that is some impressive chilliness for this early in the met fall season. Everyone better get their guesses in for fist trace, could be a sign for an early season snowfall.

Decent radiational cooling signal for the usual spots if the 7-10 day pattern is close to forecast.

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Possibly but the last time we got this cold this early was '07 when we had lows in the 40s mid month and highs in the 60s. a week later it hit 90 and we had an incredibly warm October.

Such a brutal fall.......our coldest lows temps happen in september, until late november came around. Give me a text book fall and chilly/windy halloween. The last 2-3 falls have been pretty good.....love looking at the fall color and that crisp morning air.

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