easternsnowman Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 With the rains coming next week (looks like it will) and the following week being mid september, I doubt we see anymore 90's except for the usual warm locations. 90's from mid-Sept onwards seems like a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I think the jury is still out with regards to next week being a washout. The GFS took out the rain a couple days ago and hasn't really showed much other than Sunday night/Monday. It still will likely be on the cool side with lots of clouds though so certainly no 90s outside of potentially Sunday oh well the 12z gfs just came in much wetter With the rains coming next week (looks like it will) and the following week being mid september, I doubt we see anymore 90's except for the usual warm locations. 90's from mid-Sept onwards seems like a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Clouds beginning to breakup and we should have a few generally nice/warm days through Moday. Dont think we'll get to 90 but may get close in the warmer spots tomorrow. Then we will likely have the coolest weather since the end of may.early June by Tues - Thu. Hoping the remnants and associated moisture from Lee stay west or at least the brunt of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 lets keep things warm to hot to close out summer Tuesday thru Thursday will struggle to breaks the upper 60's and low 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Tuesday thru Thursday will struggle to breaks the upper 60's and low 70's. struggle to get out of the upper 60's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 struggle to get out of the upper 60's? Upton is forecasting 68-74 highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The 12z euro is getting too close for comfort with Katia. Looks like the ggem the shift west from 00z is pretty dramatic comparing the 2. Anymore west and we would start feeling some effects from Katia. But this run verbatim would just be rough surf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 That's some upper air trough on the NAM. Sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The 12z euro is getting too close for comfort with Katia. Looks like the ggem the shift west from 00z is pretty dramatic comparing the 2. Anymore west and we would start feeling some effects from Katia. But this run verbatim would just be rough surf. GGEM is further west. This is an incredibly complicated late summer early met fall pattern, its gonna be a while till this thing is even close to settled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 question is does this thing really have time to strenghten? doesn't look the best environment for much more than a tropical storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 question is does this thing really have time to strenghten? doesn't look the best environment for much more than a tropical storm This may be true- but as we all saw- you don't need much more than a tropical storm to cause some extensive damage on Long Island.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Awesome mid level shortwave and trough development over the Ohio Valley at 54 hours on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 The 0z CMC2, I guess that is the Canadian hurricane model, continues to NOT curve this to the east after turning north and brings it due north, making landfall on Central Long Island on Friday night. The 18z run did the same thing. The National Hurricane Center had also said that the Canadian model was verifying the best with Katia so far, so i find this interesting to say the least. Some of the other models are also continuing the trend to either not curve to the east as much, or to do it later. This seems to be the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 Just because the last two years of weather have been on crack, wouldn't be surprised too see katia hit this area hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I take back what I said about the upper 60's for highs...if and only if the NAM is correct with the upper air trough. 850 temperatures drop a few degrees below 10 C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Amazing how the NAM is still as inconsistent and unstable as it always has been with these upper air troughs over the northern 1/3 of the US. It's now a few hundred miles farther north and less amplified with that feature when compared to last nights 00z. Hopefully the improvements they make on the now running parallel NAM help it out..because this is pretty bad. Today 12z http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFEAST_12z/f39.gif Last night 00z http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFEAST_0z/f51.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Some on/off clouds and scattered showers but otherwise a nice warm summery day. Perhaps some spots reach 90, but with these clouds and all the water in the ground it'll be nice test. Luckily we've had a full week to dry out from Irene and the prior weekend deluges 21st and 14th. 11AM Roundup TEB: 81 NYC: 79 EWR: 81 LGA: 80 JFK: 76 ISP: BLM: 75 TTN: 79 ACY: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 If there's prolonged rain, we'll be in the upper 60's. Other then that, low to mid 70's for highs, which is still nice weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Some on/off clouds and scattered showers but otherwise a nice warm summery day. Perhaps some spots reach 90, but with these clouds and all the water in the ground it'll be nice test. Luckily we've had a full week to dry out from Irene and the prior weekend deluges 21st and 14th. 11AM Roundup TEB: 81 NYC: 79 EWR: 81 LGA: 80 JFK: 76 ISP: BLM: 75 TTN: 79 ACY: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 The 12z NAM is a soaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I'm becoming legitimately interested in Katia at this point. The EURO has trended much closer to the coast (not up here, towards NC), and several other models have actually begun showing a landfall (as noted, the GGEM in particular). While the forecast for fish storms typically show a landfall at one point or another, the consistency with which the forecasts for Katia continue drifting west is definitely sparking my interest in the storm... it certainly isn't unfeasible that either the OBX or Cape Cod could experience significant impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I'm becoming legitimately interested in Katia at this point. The EURO has trended much closer to the coast (not up here, towards NC), and several other models have actually begun showing a landfall (as noted, the GGEM in particular). While the forecast for fish storms typically show a landfall at one point or another, the consistency with which the forecasts for Katia continue drifting west is definitely sparking my interest in the storm... it certainly isn't unfeasible that either the OBX or Cape Cod could experience significant impacts. GGEM is a miserable tropical model, I wouldn't stay up at night worrying about what it shows. The euro trending west is significant but it still hasn't shown a track which directly impacts our area. This is a highly anomolous pattern and until Lee is resolved the margin of error is 100's and 100's of miles both ways, with a defernce of course to the historical OTS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 GFs shows almost nothing after Tuesday morning The 12z NAM is a soaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 1PM Roundup TEB: 86 NYC: 83 EWR: 86 LGA: 84 JFK: 78 ISP: 79 BLM: 85 TTN: 85 ACY: 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 +PNA +NAO pattern. Interesting to see that as the NAO went positive so did the PNA, the same thing happened in January last year after the -NAO block finally broke down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 http://www.nws.noaa....changes_aab.htm Subject: Amended: Changes to the North American Mesoscale (NAM) Analysis and Forecast System Rescheduled for September 20, 2011 Amended to reschedule the implementation for September 20, 2011, now that all testing and evaluation has been completed. Users should be aware that in the event that the NWS makes a Critical Weather Day declaration for September 20, this implementation may proceed on or about the 20th, including the possibility of implementing this change a day early. Effective Tuesday, September 20, 2011, beginning with the 1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will modify NAM Analysis and Forecast System. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Nice warm start to labor day but unfortunately clouds and showers will be quick to arrive. Temps already near or in the low 80s. Many places made it to 88/89 yesterday with only isolated 90 degree readings - none at the official stations. Clouds and rain may be the story most of this week after being very lucky to have 8 days of no rain. Guidance split but implying the brunt of the heaviest rain from a lingering front and 'Lee' should stay west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Models seem to be all over the place in terms of the timing and intensity of the rain. Flood watches are up, Upton says most of the rain falls tonight and tomorrow. Mt Holly has rain most of the week for central/NW NJ. Seems like we should just expect a shower at almost any time from this afternoon through at least tomorrow night. Nice warm start to labor day but unfortunately clouds and showers will be quick to arrive. Temps already near or in the low 80s. Many places made it to 88/89 yesterday with only isolated 90 degree readings - none at the official stations. Clouds and rain may be the story most of this week after being very lucky to have 8 days of no rain. Guidance split but implying the brunt of the heaviest rain from a lingering front and 'Lee' should stay west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Very heavy downpour right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 There was a new development on the 12z NAM, at hr 81, the trough temporarily catches Katia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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