skierinvermont Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I will say 6" for ORH but less for the other three stations. Combined average temperature for Dec 1-15: -0.5F Dec so far: -12.0 the cutter might bring it up some but then it's back in the freezer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I think he means today/tonight The Moneypit will be sliding into Shelburne Falls Sunday night... You are correct, Dave. I was referring to tonight's widespread 1-2". 13.4/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Dec so far: -12.0 the cutter might bring it up some but then it's back in the freezer Colder than I expected but definitely nailed the idea of not much snow by the 15th. Even ORH might not have 1" which will be a shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 12z GFS basically bone dry through 12/26 That 1" or less part of your thread is becoming more relevant. I don't think it is overly negative to note that the theme of these threads is continually one of chances 7-10 or more days away. It's just not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Colder than I expected but definitely nailed the idea of not much snow by the 15th. Even ORH might not have 1" which will be a shocker. Snow is tough to predict.. and 6" vs 1" is not very close. Temps are much easier to predict and I think it was pretty obvious the month would start off cold.. basically what everyone but you was saying. Take the tube socks off and feel the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 MSP is going to get blitzed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Snow is tough to predict.. and 6" vs 1" is not very close. Temps are much easier to predict and I think it was pretty obvious the month would start off cold.. basically what everyone but you was saying. Take the tube socks off and feel the cold Yeah it's hard to predict snowfall...I just guessed based on the fact we might see a cutter with the Pacific looking like that and blocking slipping east. I thought it was going to be slightly cold but this chill has definitely been exceptional. I went with around -1.5F or -2F for December in my winter forecast and it's going to be too warm barring a major pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Great 12z run IMO. Love how from day 5-7 we see massive surface HP migrating from over the pole into Canada. Maybe a 30 year anniversary party for the frigid Christmas 1980? That was awesome--I rember going for a run in it. A bit nippy. 13.8/3. I'm going on a limb and saying "no snow for tonight". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 12z GFS basically bone dry through 12/26 Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 That 1" or less part of your thread is becoming more relevant. I don't think it is overly negative to note that the theme of these threads is continually one of chances 7-10 or more days away. It's just not good. Yup, people set themselves up for disappointment getting excited about a modeled storm that is over week out. However, that's what happens when there has not been significant snow in SNE in 10 months - you look for any oasis in the desert even if it's most likely an illusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Good Who wants to go ice skating?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Good Thank god it's cold though so all of you with your below normal temperature fetish can ensure the bare ground stays extra frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 MSP is going to get blitzed. I jokingly said that in the infancy of this thread. Temps really spiking now, though. 14.1/4. Will be less cold and dry tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Who wants to go ice skating?! Maybe this afternoon, definitely tomorrow morning. I'm heading down to the beaver pond with the chisel in a little while. Visually looks to be close to 3" black ice already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Maybe this afternoon, definitely tomorrow morning. I'm heading down to the beaver pond with the chisel in a little while. Visually looks to be close to 3" black ice already. I find the transparency of it disconcerting. I try to discern how far below the surface the bottom is. Not so easy to do sometimes. I don't use a chisel......I take the walk out with much trepidatoin approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I find the transparency of it disconcerting. I try to discern how far below the surface the bottom is. Not so easy to do sometimes. I don't use a chisel......I take the walk out with much trepidatoin approach. I'm assuming it's not to deep or do you tie a rope to a tree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I am much more worried about suppression than something cutting west of me in the next 8-10 days. dont worry, it will find a way to loop around you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Jeezuz, the 12z GFS doesn't even throw us a bone. The Low coming across the southern states the end of next week just gets stomped by the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Heavy heavy indifference depicted on modeling today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Jeezuz, the 12z GFS doesn't even throw us a bone. The Low coming across the southern states the end of next week just gets stomped by the block. You don't want to be in the bullseye 384 hours out! We have it right where we want it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 You don't want to be in the bullseye 384 hours out! We have it right where we want it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I'm assuming it's not to deep or do you tie a rope to a tree? I work on the assumption that it's not too deep and that I'm quick as a deer as soon as it starts to give way. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Still a storm signal on the 20th for the gfs ensembles and some pna ridging which helps bring colder air in after that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Oh brother. Way into the future again. I'm going back into hibernation. Somebody wake me the day before we're supposed to get a real snow. See you in 2012! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 What i am taking out of all these model runs of the last day or so is that i will be getting a good nights sleep for the next 2 weeks........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Colder than I expected but definitely nailed the idea of not much snow by the 15th. Even ORH might not have 1" which will be a shocker. How many winters has ORH not had 1" by December 15th? I don't find that shocking, whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I work on the assumption that it's not too deep and that I'm quick as a deer as soon as it starts to give way. lol. Typically if the ice fails you just post hole through. If you do get a warning the quick movement to escape often causes you to punch through. Have Fun!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 How many winters has ORH not had 1" by December 15th? I don't find that shocking, whatsoever. Strictly a guess but 1 out of 4? I'm sure Will could tell us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Strictly a guess but 1 out of 4? I'm sure Will could tell us. This doesn't really answer your question, but Will did say this this morning ... We really need to get some snow in here. I guess the "spoiled" 2000s of December are getting to me too. But even as good as December has been recently, the 2000s still had climo for White Christmas...6/10 years compared to 67% climo. But almost every year save 2006 had big snow on the ground at some point prior to Xmas to get the holiday spirit going. So this year is going long without white ground before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Thank god it's cold though so all of you with your below normal temperature fetish can ensure the bare ground stays extra frozen it's good though...will only take one of those many s/w ripping through the flow to amp a bit to really get something interesting. i actually like the look of that gfs run. who knows if it's right, but i'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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