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I have an idea - let's start a new talking points thread

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Oh yeah... the 0.05" or so of QPF on Wednesday. Lets definitely include that as a "legit" threat

Will said it was a 1-3 type look on the euro..and Phil and Scoot are interested in it..so that's enough for me. Certainly better than you failing at attempts to rile people up with 6z GFS posts and least snowy Dec in history.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Will said it was a 1-3 type look on the euro..and Phil and Scoot are interested in it..so that's enough for me. Cerainly beter than you failing at atempts to rile people up with 6z GFS posts and least snowy Dec in history.

How 0.05" of QPF on the Euro for you equates to 1"-3" I'll never know.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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The 12/19-12/20 threat disappeared but I have a feeling it may come back. Pattern looks a bit more favorable for getting some snow up here.

Ha ha – something out there does not like Kevin, and its hatred and persecution of him is radiating outward and affecting us all now. Muahahhahahahahaa

Define cosmic dildo luck: -NAO, subnormal temperatures; -NAO relaxes, storm threads the temporal needle to not snow as though by design; -NAO re-asserts with more wasted subnormal cold

Yeah, that pretty much will some up this 3 week interval come the 20th,all because metaphysic are out to get Kevin.

Thankfully, there are other options on the table as you have been eluding too -

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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Ha ha – something out there does not like Kevin, and its hatred and persecution of him is radiating outward and affecting us all now. Muahahhahahahahaa

Define cosmic dildo luck: -NAO, subnormal temperatures; -NAO relaxes, storm threads the temporal needle to not snow as though by design; -NAO re-asserts with more wasted subnormal cold

Yeah, that pretty much will some up this 3 week interval come the 20th,all because metaphysic are out to get Kevin.

Thankfully, there are other options on the table as you have been eluding too -

I'm already sick of this cold.....useless.

I'll gladly take snow or torch.

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skierinvermont

skierinvermont

Posted
Posted

I'm just being honest dude....when I see a great snowstorm threat for SNE, I'll be all over it and hoping it materializes down here as well. But this is a meteorology board so I try to keep my comments fairly objective...this pattern doesn't look so great to me and I think it's fine to admit it. We might get another shot for snow in about a week as we have a nice 50/50 low and -NAO, but we'll see how the Pacific evolves in the next few days of modeling. Fact is that a lot of strong La Niña winters have been pretty horrid.

What do you mean the pattern doesn't look great? We have a classic -NAO and 50/50 low in the mid to long range.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
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What do you mean the pattern doesn't look great? We have a classic -NAO and 50/50 low in the mid to long range.

I meant for this storm particularly where we don't have the blocking in place and the Pacific set-up isn't great....I like a threat around Day 7/8 although once again we have a -PNA/+EPO with a raging GoA low and most of the cold out west and into Alaska. This might allow another storm to try to cut despite the -NAO blocking. You're really looking too much at the Atlantic side I think, especially for your coastal location where a +PNA really is necessary to get a coastal, the only way you get big snows unlike people up towards ORH and then Berkshires.

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Zeus

Zeus

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Ha ha – something out there does not like Kevin, and its hatred and persecution of him is radiating outward and affecting us all now. Muahahhahahahahaa

Define cosmic dildo luck: -NAO, subnormal temperatures; -NAO relaxes, storm threads the temporal needle to not snow as though by design; -NAO re-asserts with more wasted subnormal cold

Yeah, that pretty much will some up this 3 week interval come the 20th,all because metaphysic are out to get Kevin.

Thankfully, there are other options on the table as you have been eluding too -

So.

About that correction vector.

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skierinvermont

skierinvermont

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I meant for this storm particularly where we don't have the blocking in place and the Pacific set-up isn't great....I like a threat around Day 7/8 although once again we have a -PNA/+EPO with a raging GoA low and most of the cold out west and into Alaska. This might allow another storm to try to cut despite the -NAO blocking. You're really looking too much at the Atlantic side I think, especially for your coastal location where a +PNA really is necessary to get a coastal, the only way you get big snows unlike people up towards ORH and then Berkshires.

I am much more worried about suppression than something cutting west of me in the next 8-10 days.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I meant for this storm particularly where we don't have the blocking in place and the Pacific set-up isn't great....I like a threat around Day 7/8 although once again we have a -PNA/+EPO with a raging GoA low and most of the cold out west and into Alaska. This might allow another storm to try to cut despite the -NAO blocking. You're really looking too much at the Atlantic side I think, especially for your coastal location where a +PNA really is necessary to get a coastal, the only way you get big snows unlike people up towards ORH and then Berkshires.

Eh, there's no problem with cold though - the issue with this current system is not the lack of nascient cold. It was between 0-15 above at most climate locales from interior PA through all of New England overnight last night and most of those same sites never saw freezing yestereday.

What really did this one in ...er, rather appares slated to, is the temporality of the NAO pulses. The index carries with it a much more stochastic behavior than it's cousin, the AO, and more so than the PNA (the latter is understandable considering the PNA is an order of magnitude larger is spatial dimension). Anyway, the -NOA west biase blocking decayed at just the quintessentially perfect time for this system's phase in with PV to sneak W.

There's no other reason or mystery really. The irritation and annoyance for the winter weather enthusiasts of course now being that the NAO wants to re-assert domination just after this system has departed.

So sarcasm and joking aside, we do in fact do a -NAO abnormal cold --> warm rain event --> back to -NAO abnormal cold, having no synoptic snows for the hungry while doing so.

Sorry guys, that's just the breaks - sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you.

Again, there is also a bit too liberal reliance on the -NAO in one's expectations; I convered this multiple times but the -NAO is often too suppressive for cyclgenesis and there is a bit of a missconception regarding... This last 2 weeks has featured at least one text book miss because of that, and the NAO overall timing its behavior this way is whipping our arses here.

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