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I have an idea - let's start a new talking points thread


Typhoon Tip

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Isnt it sweet to see the King bow down and come so far east.

Its a dendrite sandwhich, little thump in the front, rain then a little thump in the rear, flash freeze, howling winds powder blowing all over Gods creation. Skiing, ICe fishing, pond hockey, sledding, man its going to be fantastic next week!

Then the swfe greet us xmas week, heavy snow, thumpity thump thump

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Isnt it sweet to see the King bow down and come so far east.

Its a dendrite sandwhich, little thump in the front, rain then a little thump in the rear, flash freeze, howling winds powder blowing all over Gods creation. Skiing, ICe fishing, pond hockey, sledding, man its going to be fantastic next week!

Then the swfe greet us xmas week, heavy snow, thumpity thump thump

Where to start........

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Yeah at least western NE has some snow threat as the second low runs up the coast.

UK is more interesting with no primary over the great lakes and just the second storm on the NC coast

The UK would turn out to be a rain or rain/snow scenario for ENY east to WNE for a while then perhaps a snow burst on the backside. Also too the track that it shows (and the EC for that matter) could result in a dry-slot from hell; conversely there would appear to be a very good CCB/Deformation zone with this system (Uk/EC/even GFS) all show this.

The one thing I'm not a fan of, is the potential for a rotting airmass in place after mid week next week. That block is massive and looks to circulate some marine air in here. It's not terribly warm or anything, but I don't like seeing that. The block is there, but some members have miller b's and some have cutters.

Unlike last year this year there will at least be SOME snowpack NE thru NW of the NEUS when this wrap-around marine air comes back in.

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The UK would turn out to be a rain or rain/snow scenario for ENY east to WNE for a while then perhaps a snow burst on the backside. Also too the track that it shows (and the EC for that matter) could result in a dry-slot from hell; conversely there would appear to be a very good CCB/Deformation zone with this system (Uk/EC/even GFS) all show this.

Unlike last year this year there will at least be SOME snowpack NE thru NW of the NEUS when this wrap-around marine air comes back in.

You heard it hear. Andy's calling for snow, dry-slot, snow!

(selective reading. :)

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The UK would turn out to be a rain or rain/snow scenario for ENY east to WNE for a while then perhaps a snow burst on the backside. Also too the track that it shows (and the EC for that matter) could result in a dry-slot from hell; conversely there would appear to be a very good CCB/Deformation zone with this system (Uk/EC/even GFS) all show this.

Unlike last year this year there will at least be SOME snowpack NE thru NW of the NEUS when this wrap-around marine air comes back in.

Yeah it's better to have this now, when sun angle is low. It's the block from hell, and hopefully if a pna ridge pops as shown by some models, we can get something down the road.

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Nice to have the ukmet and the king give western new england some snow, two best models out there both agree on that. ITs time to trend this even better, still 5 days out, so so much time to get things in line.

12z is extremely important today, need to hold or improve on 0z.

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Nice to have the ukmet and the king give western new england some snow, two best models out there both agree on that. ITs time to trend this even better, still 5 days out, so so much time to get things in line.

12z is extremely important today, need to hold or improve on 0z.

IMO I don't think the 12z run is all that important. They'll still vascillate and oscillate on differing solutions right up thru 24 hours out.

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IMO I don't think the 12z run is all that important. They'll still vascillate and oscillate on differing solutions right up thru 24 hours out.

The problem is even the the Euro is right about the potential for a nice snowy CCB on the back of the secondary low... it's going to be very tough to get a solution that's much better than that IMO.

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The one negative that wont change here is that we have a really poor initial set up in terms of high position, etc. Therefore most snow will have to fall west of the track where cold air is drawn into the system. I feel annoyed at this because in December I had hoped we would have decent pre-existing cold air, but things have conspired to rob us of it just in time for this storm. Blocking FTW all week and we lose it for a couple day period, then it returns.

Nice to have the ukmet and the king give western new england some snow, two best models out there both agree on that. ITs time to trend this even better, still 5 days out, so so much time to get things in line.

12z is extremely important today, need to hold or improve on 0z.

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Yeah it's better to have this now, when sun angle is low. It's the block from hell, and hopefully if a pna ridge pops as shown by some models, we can get something down the road.

The last hemispheric frames on the Euro look encouraging to me as a feed into the NW territories SW into central Canada begins to get established. The sick straight over the pole feed into Europe is disrupted. Looks like a reload pattern to me, encouraging for sustained colder than normal air.

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