mahk_webstah Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Some Monday..bigger threat Thursday I agree with that....I have been thinking that later next week will bring a threat...we just have to get this misery out of the way on Sunday. HPC says the pattern supports cool and above normal precip through the medium range. I think we get snow Thursday or Friday. Probably another cutter at some point once the NAO relaxes, then a plunge back with more chances the following week. As we saw last year and as Don Sutherland so sagely predicted, -NAO and -AO departures of the magnitude we are seeing will return. Hopefully for us the set up will be better when they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I think both him and I are interested in each other, and excited too. It's too early in the relationship and too complicated of a pattern since we're both married, but my hope is to get things worked out in 5-6 days . It is within the realm of possibilities, that we are living together by the end of the month however. I guess congrats are in order? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 69 78 93 87 83 I will play those numbers anyday I'm unsure about '78 on that list - both the super bomb in Cleveland in Jan of that year, and the Feb monter along the SNE Coast were both delta(NAO) events. Create a list of all snow events greater than 4 inches and you will find that more than 60% are delta(teleconnector) events, whether related to large scale synoptic reorganizaiton from the PNA or NAO while they are in modality, not mode. You can't really fight the reality of this - honestly, not to be adversarial here in any way, but the logic is not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 NICE - the 12z NAM is hitting the PV phase much harder. Makes sense because this thing came off the Pac stronger than previous guidance, and this stronger systme causes less resistence in the geopotential medium S of the PV and down comes a chunk of it! This has implications that are interesting immediately beyond (D 4' ...ish onward) as the NAO comes smartly into suppressive might on W orientation, and pins a whopper of a M and UA vortex over or S of our latitude. That Norlun idea on the 00z ECM might just have some merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 That's what forces me to look ahead. I don't want to see that...lol. I can't look ahead right now, I just puked in my mouth after looking at the 12z nam........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Thought as we did Or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 NICE - the 12z NAM is hitting the PV phase much harder. Makes sense because this thing came off the Pac stronger than previous guidance, and this stronger systme causes less resistence in the geopotential medium S of the PV and down comes a chunk of it! This has implications that are interesting immediately beyond (D 4' ...ish onward) as the NAO comes smartly into suppressive might on W orientation, and pins a whopper of a M and UA vortex over or S of our latitude. That Norlun idea on the 00z ECM might just have some merit. Is there a propensity for Norluns to take aim at areas from the north shore through coastal ME or was that just the trajectory I'd hope for when I was living in coastal ME? Hopefully it's the latter so I can hope to get some of that here. Suspect it's the former though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 9 degrees and cloudy god does it look like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I can't look ahead right now, I just puked in my mouth after looking at the 12z nam........ On the plus side, it looks like snow outside now. Quickly thickened and lowering cloud deck. Not holding my breath though. Paltry moisture and 11.1/5 do not paint a picture of white.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 On the plus side, it looks like snow outside now. Quickly thickened and lowering cloud deck. Not holding my breath though. Paltry moisture and 11.1/5 do not paint a picture of white.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Pick a storm any storm from 1948 on, Geez we need the ULL to dive to NJ coast http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 OT but did anbody text wiz regarding Miley? >bong< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I think both him and I are interested in it, but not excited yet. It's too early and too complicated of a pattern to get the hopes up being 5-6 days out. It is in the realm of possibilities, however. yeah it's by no means a lock. a few wobbles here and there will make a huge difference. hopefully we can get it to set-up right and we can get some snows to rotate down this way. i'd almost feel better with an inverted trough scenario than an actual retrograde Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I can't look ahead right now, I just puked in my mouth after looking at the 12z nam........ Better get the rain boots ready. Does the term Blue Christmas have other meanings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I think he means today/tonight The Moneypit will be sliding into Shelburne Falls Sunday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I guess congrats are in order? A+. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Great news. 6z op GFS has our next legit snow threat by 12/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Ginx, fantastic product! thx for that... I also reviewed 02-03-1978 through 02-08-1978, and the earlier historic event of that year from 01-23-1978 through 01-03-1978: Both exquisitely show a west based NAO differentiating (-delta(NAO)) as they were forming. You can see this as an impressive deep layer block blossoming in central/eastern Canada at the time the PV was subsequently then forced S to phase with the southern stream in both cases. These just a couple of good educational examples that beautifully elucidate the delat(teleconnector) correlation with larger events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Great news. 6z op GFS has our next legit snow threat by 12/24 your are hystericlaly sardonic when you want to be and I like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Great news. 6z op GFS has our next legit snow threat by 12/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Great news. 6z op GFS has our next legit snow threat by 12/24 Nice try Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Nice try LOL well it doesn't really have anything until then... and the op Euro doesn't have anything through day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Hey the 12/24 storm looks awesome for W CT/W MA. Kevin probably has some mixing issues and Ray may even get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 LOL well it doesn't really have anything until then... and the op Euro doesn't have anything through day 10 Euro has a couple inches of snow midweek with retro/norlun deal? What are you talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 NAM has an extremely powerful jet ripping into the area sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 NAM has an extremely powerful jet ripping into the area sunday night Congrats on firing weenie mobile up in mid Dec..in 60+ degree temps out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Euro has a couple inches of snow midweek with retro/norlun deal? What are you talking about Oh yeah... the 0.05" or so of QPF on Wednesday. Lets definitely include that as a "legit" threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Hey the 12/24 storm looks awesome for W CT/W MA. Kevin probably has some mixing issues and Ray may even get rain. LOL, relentless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Congrats on firing weenie mobile up in mid Dec..in 60+ degree temps out there if that llj actually came to fruition it would be worth it. but in all likelihood it's overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I'm assuming the ground is now frozen deep enough in most places to cause some flooding issues sun/mon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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