I have an idea - let's start a new talking points thread

[Typhoon Tip]

Many Red Sox fans lived entire lifetimes between World Series championships!

Eh, nice Norlun on the 00z ECM run; not an unacceptable solution actually should the ML negative anomally actually pass over and under our latitude in that way.

Unfortunatley at D5-6 there is 0 way to be precise about that seeing as they are not well-handled even in Nowcast.

I can assure you, "White" sox fans won't have to wait as long as that metaphor of yours imples ... maybe a month or less.

I remember writing a month ago extensively why "-NAOs do not mean snow" - it's cruelly amusing how no sooner did that get out we slip into a pulsing reasons (take your pick) why it can snow off a 9F cold air mass this morning (or any in the string of chilled days). That storm last week that slipped off the Va Capes, curled tauntingly around the MA/NE, and landfelled into the lower Maritimes was -NAO storm suppression run amuk, and a nasty mean first hand lesson on why folks should rather not beat the -NAO drum. Moreover, this system coming in stronger on the 00z initializatoin, and the result of stem-winding a low W of the App cordillera is taking place because said -NAO relaxed ....just oh so much as to succeed in not allowing the solution(s) anyone wanted.

Btw, I don't have a problem now with the warmer(ing) solutions as we have a solid initializatio sheme, and just as I said, the models coverged almost immediately with less disconcerting solutions - tell me it doesn't make a difference out west. Whatever. Anyway, what that will mean is massive scale air mass change across a short period for the OV,MA, and NE regions. I think central and northern NE may hold onto front side cold, just because the mid-level closes off and start churning underneath those latitude enough to cut WAA - it will be a race there.

I recall one early February storm...I think it was 1995 ... We are in the single digitis at dawn up at UML on the weather lab teleprompter, and we were 62F with howling southerly winds by 9pm that evening. That was the single greatest synoptic enforced turn around I ever experience. Light snow commenced, changed to freezing rain, nearly 1/4 inch accreted a the temperature recovered all the way to freezing over 9 hours. Then it trees just start swaying and steam started wafting off the light snow from earlier in the day, and the temp soared. Pretty spectacular - so much so that it equally as amazing as any wintery event in its own right.

[nzucker]

What is getting old is people who are always dwelling on the negative, looking for reasons why snow and cold won't materialize, complaining about global indices, how the pacific looks...saying strong La ninas mean below normal snowfall with no chance of normal or above

Now THAT is what is getting old and turns people off

I'm just being honest dude....when I see a great snowstorm threat for SNE, I'll be all over it and hoping it materializes down here as well. But this is a meteorology board so I try to keep my comments fairly objective...this pattern doesn't look so great to me and I think it's fine to admit it. We might get another shot for snow in about a week as we have a nice 50/50 low and -NAO, but we'll see how the Pacific evolves in the next few days of modeling. Fact is that a lot of strong La Niña winters have been pretty horrid.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah consistency FTL, that's my problem with that model.

yep. euro smackdown...as we knew.

glad i had my blinders on.

[Ginx snewx]

People just pulling amounts and snowstorms out of their behind is getting kind of old. The weekend storm looks mostly like a regular frontal passage, with almost all the precipitation ahead of the front and little chance for an anafrontal wave to develop. I'd be shocked to see more than 1" of snow in SNE except for the favored upslope areas like the higher elevations of the Berkshires.

And it's pretty hard for someone in Southern Maine to get 100" if November and December are horrid. You need to get a decent start to achieve those amounts, especially in a La Niña winter. Where is the snow, Jerry?

You did not mention Nino, man you are slipping.

[SJonesWX]

What is getting old is people who are always dwelling on the negative, looking for reasons why snow and cold won't materialize, complaining about global indices, how the pacific looks...saying strong La ninas mean below normal snowfall with no chance of normal or above

Now THAT is what is getting old and turns people off

lol i was thinking the exact same thing as you

[CoastalWx]

Eh, nice Norlun on the 00z ECM run; not an unacceptable solution actually should the ML negative anomally actually pass over and under our latitude in that way.

Unfortunatley at D5-6 there is 0 way to be precise about that seeing as they are not well-handled even in Nowcast.

I can assure you, "White" sox fans won't have to wait as long as that metaphor of yours imples ... maybe a month or less.

I remember writing a month ago extensively why "-NAOs do not mean snow" - it's cruelly amusing how no sooner did that get out we slip into a pulsing reasons (take your pick) why it can snow off a 9F cold air mass this morning (or any in the string of chilled days). That storm last week that slipped off the Va Capes, curled tauntingly around the MA/NE, and landfelled into the lower Maritimes was -NAO storm suppression run amuk, and a nasty mean first hand lesson on why folks should rather not beat the -NAO drum. Moreover, this system coming in stronger on the 00z initializatoin, and the result of stem-winding a low W of the App cordillera is taking place because said -NAO relaxed ....just oh so much as to succeed in not allowing the solution(s) anyone wanted.

Btw, I don't have a problem now with the warmer(ing) solutions as we have a solid initializatio sheme, and just as I said, the models coverged almost immediately with less disconcerting solutions - tell me it doesn't make a difference out west. Whatever. Anyway, what that will mean is massive scale air mass change across a short period for the OV,MA, and NE regions. I think central and northern NE may hold onto front side cold, just because the mid-level closes off and start churning underneath those latitude enough to cut WAA - it will be a race there.

I recall one early February storm...I think it was 1995 ... We are in the single digitis at dawn up at UML on the weather lab teleprompter, and we were 62F with howling southerly winds by 9pm that evening. That was the single greatest synoptic enforced turn around I ever experience. Light snow commenced, changed to freezing rain, nearly 1/4 inch accreted a the temperature recovered all the way to freezing over 9 hours. Then it trees just start swaying and steam started wafting off the light snow from earlier in the day, and the temp soared. Pretty spectacular - so much so that it equally as amazing as any wintery event in its own right.

I think that was Jan '94 iirc. I remember I actually had OES snow from a south wind that morning at 8F and furnaced into the 50's that aftn.

[CoastalWx]

I think that was Jan '94 iirc. I remember I actually had OES snow from a south wind that morning at 8F and furnaced into the 50's that aftn.

Jan 28?

[Ginx snewx]

Tippy I kind of liked my Neg NAO 18 + Storm last winter, I will take my chances

[HoarfrostHubb]

Eh, nice Norlun on the 00z ECM run; not an unacceptable solution actually should the ML negative anomally actually pass over and under our latitude in that way.

Unfortunatley at D5-6 there is 0 way to be precise about that seeing as they are not well-handled even in Nowcast.

I can assure you, "White" sox fans won't have to wait as long as that metaphor of yours imples ... maybe a month or less.

I remember writing a month ago extensively why "-NAOs do not mean snow" - it's cruelly amusing how no sooner did that get out we slip into a pulsing reasons (take your pick) why it can snow off a 9F cold air mass this morning (or any in the string of chilled days). That storm last week that slipped off the Va Capes, curled tauntingly around the MA/NE, and landfelled into the lower Maritimes was -NAO storm suppression run amuk, and a nasty mean first hand lesson on why folks should rather not beat the -NAO drum. Moreover, this system coming in stronger on the 00z initializatoin, and the result of stem-winding a low W of the App cordillera is taking place because said -NAO relaxed ....just oh so much as to succeed in not allowing the solution(s) anyone wanted.

Btw, I don't have a problem now with the warmer(ing) solutions as we have a solid initializatio sheme, and just as I said, the models coverged almost immediately with less disconcerting solutions - tell me it doesn't make a difference out west. Whatever. Anyway, what that will mean is massive scale air mass change across a short period for the OV,MA, and NE regions. I think central and northern NE may hold onto front side cold, just because the mid-level closes off and start churning underneath those latitude enough to cut WAA - it will be a race there.

I recall one early February storm...I think it was 1995 ... We are in the single digitis at dawn up at UML on the weather lab teleprompter, and we were 62F with howling southerly winds by 9pm that evening. That was the single greatest synoptic enforced turn around I ever experience. Light snow commenced, changed to freezing rain, nearly 1/4 inch accreted a the temperature recovered all the way to freezing over 9 hours. Then it trees just start swaying and steam started wafting off the light snow from earlier in the day, and the temp soared. Pretty spectacular - so much so that it equally as amazing as any wintery event in its own right.

I seem to remember an epic tale you spun on some old weather board about warm temps at UML and chickies everywhere playing frisbee and then a monster front went through plummeting temps and shocking people back to reality...

Can you get another one of those events arranged?

[Ginx snewx]

Jan 28?

In 94 ice storm I was 9 degrees and pouring rain at the start.

[dryslot]

You will finish with 100+ this year. Book it.

It will be tough to do if we receive none to little snow this month, But i like your thinking........

[mahk_webstah]

Many Red Sox fans lived entire lifetimes between World Series championships!

Dude I'm from Philly...believe me I understand suffering.

[mahk_webstah]

People just pulling amounts and snowstorms out of their behind is getting kind of old. The weekend storm looks mostly like a regular frontal passage, with almost all the precipitation ahead of the front and little chance for an anafrontal wave to develop. I'd be shocked to see more than 1" of snow in SNE except for the favored upslope areas like the higher elevations of the Berkshires.

And it's pretty hard for someone in Southern Maine to get 100" if November and December are horrid. You need to get a decent start to achieve those amounts, especially in a La Niña winter. Where is the snow, Jerry?

Well you pull the Pacific outta your behind at least twice a day....that must be painful.

[OKpowdah]

Sooo, when's the first *real* threat

[CoastalWx]

The retrograding ridge into Canada should also push the upper level trough towards AK as well. This may force more of a -pna down down road. Before then we may see the pna actually trend + after the 18-19th or so..giving us our next chance. When the pna goes negative, it appears we still have the -nao block so lets hope that if we do have swfe...they won't cut west with the block in place.

[CoastalWx]

The retrograding ridge into Canada should also push the upper level trough towards AK as well. This may force more of a -pna down down road. Before then we may see the pna actually trend + after the 18-19th or so..giving us our next chance. When the pna goes negative, it appears we still have the -nao block so lets hope that if we do have swfe...they won't cut west with the block in place.

It is also possible, next week offers something, but I can't get excited about that right now.

[dryslot]

The retrograding ridge into Canada should also push the upper level trough towards AK as well. This may force more of a -pna down down road. Before then we may see the pna actually trend + after the 18-19th or so..giving us our next chance. When the pna goes negative, it appears we still have the -nao block so lets hope that if we do have swfe...they won't cut west with the block in place.

Lets hope.......

[Tropopause_Fold]

Sooo, when's the first *real* threat

i think there's a threat for heavy rain sunday afternoon and night.

[dryslot]

It is also possible, next week offers something, but I can't get excited about that right now.

Very hard to look ahead when you know you have 2+" of rain on the way........

[CoastalWx]

Very hard to look ahead when you know you have 2+" of rain on the way........

That's what forces me to look ahead. I don't want to see that...lol.

[CoastalWx]

NAM is warmer again it seems.

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX is giving me 1-2" of RAIN Sunday night... stupid models pushed the blob west a little bit...

I hate the models

NAM looks a little negative tilted (is that the right term) towards the end

[Damage In Tolland]

Sooo, when's the first *real* threat

Some Monday..bigger threat Thursday

[Ginx snewx]

SE winds, wind damage.

[Damage In Tolland]

It is also possible, next week offers something, but I can't get excited about that right now.

Why not? Phil is

[CoastalWx]

Still appears to start off as some brief sn perhaps then ice over east slopes before going to rain. Maybe change back to sn down the road later Sunday Night?? Can't tell yet.

[Typhoon Tip]

I seem to remember an epic tale you spun on some old weather board about warm temps at UML and chickies everywhere playing frisbee and then a monster front went through plummeting temps and shocking people back to reality...

Can you get another one of those events arranged?

hahaha yeah that was a doozy. I'll see what I can do. Btw, that was the March 29-31 heatwave that truncated with a backdoor cold front straight out of the cold soul of Satan himself! 90F March 31 --> 38F April 1

Scootage - yeah, that may be the one. Same deal at UML, although no OE of course... It was wild wild wild.

Ginxy - you most certainly do take your chances with a solidly -NAO, but if you were a gambling man you would not play any money down on that hand, and instead opt for the delta(NAO) times my friend - otherwise your selling the farm over the long haul while you wait to get lucky. Kind of like these people that buy 10,000 $ worth of losing lottery tickets, and then win 9,000 on a scratch and "feel" like they are cashing in.

[CoastalWx]

Why not? Phil is

I think both him and I are interested in it, but not excited yet. It's too early and too complicated of a pattern to get the hopes up being 5-6 days out. It is in the realm of possibilities, however.

[Damage In Tolland]

Still appears to start off as some brief sn perhaps then ice over east slopes before going to rain. Maybe change back to sn down the road later Sunday Night?? Can't tell yet.

Thought as we did

[Ginx snewx]

hahaha yeah that was a doozy. I'll see what I can do. Btw, that was the March 29-31 heatwave that truncated with a backdoor cold front straight out of the cold soul of Satan himself! 90F March 31 --> 38F April 1

Scootage - yeah, that may be the one. Same deal at UML, although no OE of course... It was wild wild wild.

Ginxy - you most certainly do take your chances with a solidly -NAO, but if you were a gambling man you would not play any money down on that hand, and instead opt for the delta(NAO) times my friend - otherwise your selling the farm over the long haul while you wait to get lucky. Kind of like these people that buy 10,000 $ worth of losing lottery tickets, and then win 9,000 on a scratch and "feel" like they are cashing in.

69 78 93 87 83 I will play those numbers anyday