I have an idea - let's start a new talking points thread

[dryslot]

GFS gives us a little frozen on the front end before the changeover......

[skierinvermont]

I'd always take a +PNA/-EPO block over the -NAO. That's what's been proven to work out down here, and it always guarantees arctic air which is important in the early season regime. We had a very good Pacific for winters like 02-03, 93-94, and 60-61 despite the Atlantic set-up being mediocre, and we benefited greatly. I of course don't live in New England so I am more uncomfortable with a -PNA/-NAO pattern than someone in ORH would be. I still think the Pacific has been helping to muck things up lately....you can see that this current storm is forming from a wave coming into Northern Montana and heading into zonal flow; there's no reason for it to ever arrive at the longitude we need before developing and closing. There's just nothing lowering the heights so it can dig into the classic location for a Miller A (MS Valley or Gulf) or for a Miller b (Tennessee or Southern Ohio Valley).

Dude, like 20 people including 5 mets have told you a -NAO is more important than a favorable pacific for your area and for the mid atlantic. Just look at the KU storms.. the pacific patterns are all over the map with all sorts of set ups, but the most common variable is a -NAO and a 50/50 low. Storms don't cut with good blocking.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS gives us a little frozen on the front end before the changeover......

Yeah it does...a burst of snow at the onset if the GFS verifies. I'll tell you what, if we had a decent airmass in here prior to that storm, this would be a good front end thump. The "clipper" really screws us by clearing out the arctic air mass and then not giving us any CAA behind it.

[dendrite]

GFS gives us a little frozen on the front end before the changeover......

Looks like about 0.20" QPF here before the 0C 850 isotherm soars northward...haven't seen the 63hr soundings yet. I'll be happy with even 1" accum at this point even if it gets washed away 2hrs later.

[dryslot]

Yeah it does...a burst of snow at the onset if the GFS verifies. I'll tell you what, if we had a decent airmass in here prior to that storm, this would be a good front end thump. The "clipper" really screws us by clearing out the arctic air mass and then not giving us any CAA behind it.

Yeah, The clipper tracking thru canada really put the fuks to a lot of us here, It really sucks that we have the low moving thru quebec when really at this time of year we should have a high there, Amazing..............

[Mr Torchey]

End of the nam run features some serious downpours across eastern new england, it appears as though its trying to crank up a secondary down in the carolinas. Lets hope so.

yep

It seems unlikely to me, from that setup on the NAM, that the secondary you speak of would bring much in the way of wintry funstuffs to any of us.

nope

Agreed, but it might be the difference between an inch of snow behind the front and nothing, so at least it would give some a chance.

yep

I think you've had one too many libations out there in Litchfield.

not then but now yes a few

? Most models show especially western new england flipping to snow with minor accumulations behind the front. Boston, yeah, cooked, torch rain, but you might clean up in the retro next week.

uh huh

We were speaking specifically about the secondary depicted by the NAM on its most recent run, here, unless I'm missing something.

Not what "most models" show.

And my estimate, extrapolating that depiction, doesn't bring much of anything frozen to most folks here from that chunk.

failure

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Yeah it does...a burst of snow at the onset if the GFS verifies. I'll tell you what, if we had a decent airmass in here prior to that storm, this would be a good front end thump. The "clipper" really screws us by clearing out the arctic air mass and then not giving us any CAA behind it.

If the clipper were further south would this have been less of an issue?

[skierinvermont]

No sign of the quebec block on the gfs.. the -nao looks classic

[ORH_wxman]

If the clipper were further south would this have been less of an issue?

Yes for sure...it would have kept the cold airmass in here. But oh well, can't cried over spilled milk. It is what it is. Hopefully we can pull off some retrograde action after this storm passes and then capitlize on the pattern setting up after which continues to look decent.

[ORH_wxman]

No sign of the quebec block on the gfs.. the -nao looks classic

Vortex in SE Canada looks to set up in a decent spot too latter next week (related to the nice looking NAO block)...it should allow something to amplify in here but stout enough to favor it going underneath us rather than west of us.

[skierinvermont]

Vortex in SE Canada looks to set up in a decent spot too latter next week (related to the nice looking NAO block)...it should allow something to amplify in here but stout enough to favor it going underneath us rather than west of us.

Yeah - I really like the look of the 19-20th for a storm on the GFS ensemble mean. It looks pretty classic for a decent storm... blocking in the right spot, a s/w in the plains

[Logan11]

There's your rinse and repeat storm on the GFS post 300 hours. HAH Just watch the gfs blow the day 3-7 period, but get that one correct.

Yeah - I really like the look of the 19-20th for a storm on the GFS ensemble mean. It looks pretty classic for a decent storm... blocking in the right spot, a s/w in the plains

[ORH_wxman]

00z Euro giving some retro action at 144h....not nearly as impressive as the 12z run, but that run gave us like 10", lol.

I'd be happy with 1-3 inches of it if we can get it to set up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

00z Euro giving some retro action at 144h....not nearly as impressive as the 12z run, but that run gave us like 10", lol.

I'd be happy with 1-3 inches of it if we can get it to set up.

I'm drunk and about to pass......is it good for me

[ORH_wxman]

I'm drunk and about to pass......is it good for me

It gives you a couple inches I guess. Its 144-150 hours out though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It gives you a couple inches I guess. Its 144-150 hours out though.

Sounds great; night.

GO Bs!!!!

[nzucker]

Dude, like 20 people including 5 mets have told you a -NAO is more important than a favorable pacific for your area and for the mid atlantic. Just look at the KU storms.. the pacific patterns are all over the map with all sorts of set ups, but the most common variable is a -NAO and a 50/50 low. Storms don't cut with good blocking.

The NAO may be a bigger factor when the Pacific is in a "neutral" state but we don't see many KU storms with an unfavorable Pacific and huge GoA low. Just take a look at 2/2006 and 3/1960, two of the most classic storms for NYC; both had a nice +PNA spike or -EPO pattern prior and during the storm. I also happen to know that my town's snowiest winter came in a +NAO year, 60-61, because we had a great pattern from the Pacific side. One of our most historic winters for cold and continual snow pack, 93-94, came with the +PNA/+NAO pattern. So it doesn't really concern me what others say, of course I agree that the -NAO is the most distinctive feature in KU events, but that's because most of them came with at least a "decent" Pacific, not in a strong La Niña. We've only had one KU in a moderate or strong La Niña in 60 years, so I think that speaks volumes about the importance of the Pacific and the STJ. Remember, when I talk about the faulty Pacific pattern, I am also referencing the lack of a STJ to form Miller As and traditional coastal storms that hit the DCA-NYC corridor as well as discussing the problems with energy ejecting from a GoA low.

It's not so much about storms just cutting, we also need the STJ down here to get good snows. And yes, having the polar jet feeding into the country so far north without a split flow does make it hard to see a pure coastal. You can just look at the 5H maps from the current modeling and see that there's a lack of a place for the Plains s/w to dig properly.

[ORH_wxman]

You're starting to sound like a Delawareite, Will...

Beggars can't be choosers...its been a disappointing start. I think once we get on the board with an advisory snowfall or better, we won't be taliing about 1-3" events with much excitement.

[ORH_wxman]

Munson was batting .033 after his first 30 at-bats his rookie year with the Yanks...finished the season hitting .300.

Yeah that's about where we are...only 30 or 40 at bats into the season of 500 at bats. If we make it to Christmas at about the 100 at bat mark and are still well below the mendoza line, then I'll start to get a bit worried.

[ORH_wxman]

...and I'm pretty sure 1970 featured a Nino to Nina transition...

So was 2007...both had similar results in New England in terms of snowfall (esp from the MA pike northward). 1970-1971 was colder though with the -NAO...2007-2008 had a large +NAO.

[skierinvermont]

The NAO may be a bigger factor when the Pacific is in a "neutral" state but we don't see many KU storms with an unfavorable Pacific and huge GoA low. Just take a look at 2/2006 and 3/1960, two of the most classic storms for NYC; both had a nice +PNA spike or -EPO pattern prior and during the storm. I also happen to know that my town's snowiest winter came in a +NAO year, 60-61, because we had a great pattern from the Pacific side. One of our most historic winters for cold and continual snow pack, 93-94, came with the +PNA/+NAO pattern. So it doesn't really concern me what others say, of course I agree that the -NAO is the most distinctive feature in KU events, but that's because most of them came with at least a "decent" Pacific, not in a strong La Niña. We've only had one KU in a moderate or strong La Niña in 60 years, so I think that speaks volumes about the importance of the Pacific and the STJ. Remember, when I talk about the faulty Pacific pattern, I am also referencing the lack of a STJ to form Miller As and traditional coastal storms that hit the DCA-NYC corridor as well as discussing the problems with energy ejecting from a GoA low.

It's not so much about storms just cutting, we also need the STJ down here to get good snows. And yes, having the polar jet feeding into the country so far north without a split flow does make it hard to see a pure coastal. You can just look at the 5H maps from the current modeling and see that there's a lack of a place for the Plains s/w to dig properly.

April 82- low right off WA state

Feb 79- low just off BC coast

Feb 83- goa low

feb 61- zonal pac

all unfavorable pacific without any sort of +PNA or -EPO they just had good blocking

I don't even really know what you are describing when you are saying the PJ is entering the country too far north. This latest s/w dug quite well and if we had had a good block it would have been a big hit. Before that we had some good s/w enter the country and dig down into the carolinas but the NAO block was too strong and shredded it although it was modeled to give some light snow to MD and VA (I don't know if that happened or not). So the last two s/w have had potential but first the NAO block was too strong and shredded it, and then it was too east and so it amplified and cut west. Before that there was another good s/w and the NAO was too east based. So we've had 3 good potentials in my memory the last 2.5 weeks and all 3 failed because the blocking was in the wrong spot at the wrong time.

And it's not as if the pacific has been terrible. The main problem has been the NAO was too east then it was too strong suppressing everything and then it was too east again for our most recent storm.

[ORH_wxman]

April 82- low right off WA state

Feb 79- low just off BC coast

Feb 83- goa low

feb 61- zonal pac

all unfavorable pacific without any sort of +PNA or -EPO they just had good blocking

I don't even really know what you are describing when you are saying the PJ is entering the country too far north. This latest s/w dug quite well and if we had had a good block it would have been a big hit.

And it's not as if the pacific has been terrible.

Bad Pacific is generally bad for KU storms...but there are exceptions...check out the Lindsay Storm for another one....screwed the PHL/DCA belt, but it was great for NYC to SNE. Feb 9-10, 1969 that storm was.

Dec 23-24, 1961 is another..pretty good for NYC area and a huge hit for SNE (eastern half esp)....terrible PAC, but a nice -NAO.

[skierinvermont]

Bad Pacific is generally bad for KU storms...but there are exceptions...check out the Lindsay Storm for another one....screwed the PHL/DCA belt, but it was great for NYC to SNE. Feb 9-10, 1969 that storm was.

Dec 23-24, 1961 is another..pretty good for NYC area and a huge hit for SNE (eastern half esp)....terrible PAC, but a nice -NAO.

Right I'm not saying it's not a factor.. most had a +PNA of some sort. But NYC north I think the -NAO is more important. Our last major 3 s/w in the last 2-3 weeks all had potential but the blocking ended up being in the wrong spots at the wrong time. We had that s/w down in NC give a little snow to VA/MD but the NAO block was too strong and forced it out to sea and then retrograded it. And then we have a nice s/w now but the NAO blocking is too weak and east.

[ORH_wxman]

Right I'm not saying it's not a factor.. most had a +PNA of some sort. But NYC north I think the -NAO is more important. Our last major 3 s/w in the last 2-3 weeks all had potential but the blocking ended up being in the wrong spots at the wrong time. We had that s/w down in NC give a little snow to VA/MD but the NAO block was too strong and forced it out to sea and then retrograded it. And then we have a nice s/w now but the NAO blocking is too weak and east

Yes it is. But for the M.A. south of that the PAC is more important I think. That is why I was getting on NZucker about his PAC fetish. It doesn't matter nearly as much up in New England...and of course this is the New England subforum.

This past week was a favorable setup....I was wrong on my Atlantic setup...I didn't envision an Atlantic setup so dominating as to have systems crushed to the south...even with that said, if the ATL block had been STRONGER, we could have had a nice retrograde system ala Dec '81. But we got the perfect strength to give us nothing but flurries and upslope snow showers in the Berkshires.

Most bad PAC setup with favorable ATL storms have been New England storms...with sometimes NYC area getting in on them too. Typical of that pattern...usually Miller Bs or in the case of non-KU events, clipper-redevelopers and SWFEs.

[CoastalWx]

Well the morning crew will be happier with the euro op, beyond next week. I'm still hoping we can pull something off after what happens next week.

[ORH_wxman]

Well the morning crew will be happier with the euro op, beyond next week. I'm still hoping we can pull something off after what happens next week.

We don't see the SE ridge phasing with the -NAO ridge....lol. Funny how the ridges "phased" on the 12z run. It was likely bunk anyway. The 00z run has a more typical good look...monster -NAO block over Baffin Island. We'll have our chances. Hopefully we actually capitalize on them.

[moneypitmike]

I think the "advance team" from our non-clipper is arriving. Temp here has come up a degree in the last 45 minutes--I would have expected a continuation of the drop.

Regardless, a little underwhelming to catch up on things this morning. The fact that there were only 3.5 pages added to the thread since I went to bed at 9:30 told the tale without having read a single one. But, I think this sums it up:

So--sounds like today/night will provide a little mood snow if anyone's awake to see it fall.

Sunday will have a brief wintry portion at the onset, then some heavy--yet cold--rain

We grasp for enough qpf after the front comes through for a light coating on the back end

We then grasp more for a retrograding system (I suspect that would help eastern areas the most?)

Is that pretty much on target?

6.2/0

[moneypitmike]

We don't see the SE ridge phasing with the -NAO ridge....lol. Funny how the ridges "phased" on the 12z run. It was likely bunk anyway. The 00z run has a more typical good look...monster -NAO block over Baffin Island. We'll have our chances. Hopefully we actually capitalize on them.

Will--do you think it's worth starting the new thread on this this morning prior to the 12z runs?

[MaineJayhawk]

6z GFS is taking the midweek retrograde further south, making things at least somewhat interesting for my area and northward. Could be something for the SNE folks to keep an eye on.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well I'm just glad there's a few inches of snow on Monday after the changeover...and Euro still retrograding snow mid week..and long range Euro looks much better