nzucker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 how you come away with that out of anything from looking at the 0z nam run is beyond me. I was comparing the development of the primary over WI at 0z Sunday... New NAM: Old 18z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 NAM at 84h looks pretty good to me for some anafront/retrograde action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 NAM is at least 100 miles east of the 18z run, it keeps the trough neutral forever before going negative east of georgia Typical pretty much what's up with that low pressure tracking toward SE mass at hr 84....... is this depicting a sort of triple point low.....or double redevelopment ( is that even a term) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The NAM does argue for a quick mix of sn/ip then a little ice in God's country before cold heavy rain and also a flip to sn at the end of the run, if you extrapolate out.....which is dangerous..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The NAM does argue for a quick mix of sn/ip then a little ice in God's country before cold heavy rain and also a flip to sn at the end of the run, if you extrapolate out.....which is dangerous..lol. Maine just gets pounded with rain this run, ouch! The 84 panel does argue for some backside stuff but I don't know how much I trust the NAM, especially considering that the primary looks very strong and very far west initially in its better range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Not that we want to get too carried away, but does the NAM start to introduce a bit more precip in at the end of the loop from south of CC? Will it be any colder at that point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Maine just gets pounded with rain this run, ouch! The 84 panel does argue for some backside stuff but I don't know how much I trust the NAM, especially considering that the primary looks very strong and very far west initially in its better range. Well I think longitude will be important for any backside stuff. Trying to forecast that right now is impossible, but it's possible if this ULL really digs se and some renegade lobe of vorticity decides to swing out and form a low along the front. Best guess would be eastern NY state, but I'd watch for it in western areas...just don't expect much right now in western mass for now anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Not that we want to get too carried away, but does the NAM start to introduce a bit more precip in at the end of the loop from south of CC? Will it be any colder at that point? Well its the NAM at 84h so take with a grain of salt, but the trough is going extremely negative and is about to be infused with more energy coming through the lakes, so I think we'd definitely see some of that stuff back in from the SE and ESE after it got cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The NAM pulls you just when you want to give up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Monday will feature daytime high temps in Maine matching daytime highs in N. Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Well its the NAM at 84h so take with a grain of salt, but the trough is going extremely negative and is about to be infused with more energy coming through the lakes, so I think we'd definitely see some of that stuff back in from the SE and ESE after it got cold enough for snow. Starting to look like the Euro, the beginning of the SSS trifecta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Starting to look like the Euro, the beginning of the SSS trifecta It happens much sooner than the euro, but it is the NAM at 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 i hope kev posts on the 0z nam little chilly out there tonite...walking dog....nice breeze as well....(for now) 15.5 f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 It happens much sooner than the euro, but it is the NAM at 84hrs. Does the ECM give any snow to SNE on the backside? Flurries or a dusting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Thats why i luv living in the pine tree state, We have spring year round.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Thats why i luv living in the pine tree state, We have spring year round.......lol I really feel bad for Maine, I mean last winter was like +10F with a ton of retrograding disasters and this one is starting with a raging Sou'easter and temperatures spiking into the 50s well into Northern Maine. As many have said, it will be colder in the FL Panhandle than CAR while the storm is occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Thats why i luv living in the pine tree state, We have spring year round.......lol Maine does look to jackpot as far as qpf. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 i hope kev posts on the 0z nam little chilly out there tonite...walking dog....nice breeze as well....(for now) 15.5 f He will...but not for 3 or 4 hours when he wakes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I really feel bad for Maine, I mean last winter was like +10F with a ton of retrograding disasters and this one is starting with a raging Sou'easter and temperatures spiking into the 50s well into Northern Maine. As many have said, it will be colder in the FL Panhandle than CAR while the storm is occurring. Why does Maine jackpot on QPF with this system? I would have thought W. NE and E. NY get more precip with this track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millpondwx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Well its the NAM at 84h so take with a grain of salt, but the trough is going extremely negative and is about to be infused with more energy coming through the lakes, so I think we'd definitely see some of that stuff back in from the SE and ESE after it got cold enough for snow. Extrapolating the NAM beyond 84hr surely sparks the imagination. Just a few observations. At 84hrs, 850mb temps across SNE are only -3 +- a degree or two and dropping quickly. 850 heights are crashing from 78hr to 84hrs, including to the south of new england; There's still a ton of nrg to the south of new england; Oh and the surface low south of new england is taking over. Shades of March 05? I know its the NAM at 84hrs but heck its fun to imagine the possibilites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I really feel bad for Maine, I mean last winter was like +10F with a ton of retrograding disasters and this one is starting with a raging Sou'easter and temperatures spiking into the 50s well into Northern Maine. As many have said, it will be colder in the FL Panhandle than CAR while the storm is occurring. Yeah we were fooked from Jan on once the that retro storm came thru here and it continues, We can't get 2010 over soon enough......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Maine does look to jackpot as far as qpf. Congrats. I don't even know how i should address this really........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The 5AM gang should be a treat to read on this... GN y'all! Dreaming in 84 hour land tonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I don't even know how i should address this really........... Believe me, I feel your pain. The N. Ct River valley has not fared much better over the past year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 no time to do anything other than read a pretty much "good/bad" response to this. How did NAM look for NW CT? Sorry, I hate to ask but if someone else wants to finish these 20 marketing quizzes I saved by 24 hours from now, I'll look at the models myself and not be annoying lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Lol we got an 84 hour panel of the NAM that were extrapolating... sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Why does Maine jackpot on QPF with this system? I would have thought W. NE and E. NY get more precip with this track? It might have something to do with the orientation of the LLJ and intense WAA in that area ahead of the system, but I'm not really sure. Definitely a question for a met to answer as most of the runs have shown a rainfall maximum over central Maine with less amounts in all other directions. Extrapolating the NAM beyond 84hr surely sparks the imagination. Just a few observations. At 84hrs, 850mb temps across SNE are only -3 +- a degree or two and dropping quickly. 850 heights are crashing from 78hr to 84hrs, including to the south of new england; There's still a ton of nrg to the south of new england; Oh and the surface low south of new england is taking over. Shades of March 05? I know its the NAM at 84hrs but heck its fun to imagine the possibilites. March 2005? People are getting delusional from analyzing this crappy system too much Also, the 850mb 0C line has only made it to NYC after all the precipitation has fallen at the 84 hour mark. It would take a few more hours for the cold air to work into SNE due to the strong WAA and maritime influence during the storm, and the NAM shows that banding is rapidly moving east on the simulated radar reflectivity. This map doesn't really look great to me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Practically identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 On the NAM you'd see more redevelopment to the south of the current low on the 84h panel...it would be the type of thing where it develops well out to the southeast and then tracks NW into Maine or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Maybe its good for us here to be in the jackpot this far out for once because it will change as we get closer in.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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