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I have an idea - let's start a new talking points thread

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

This isn't late yet for the NYC area...... Many a year you don't get much before 12/20... It is just a frustrating year because we feel that we have had synoptic opportunities since Thanskgiving and haven't capitalized yet. At least I had some good LES bands to end the boredom.

tho

La Niña is saying in da face to us as we sit on a trace for the season into the 2nd half of December.

I had my first accumulation snow in the NYC metro suburbs on 12/5 last year. Looks like this time around it'll be much later.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Exactly, he blames everything on Nina because all his eggs are in that basket. Typical start to winter, Mts first, then lower els, has been dry for sure but not unusual for sure.

No, I think Zuck's problem is he keeps trying to apply the mid-atlantic KU cookbook to what we've been discussing and it misses the point. We aren't trying to cook up a KU in this type of pattern...our snows would come via SW flow events, clipper redevelopers, and retrograde systems.

So mentioning that we didn't have a monster +PNA ridge out west is nice for arguing against a KU, but not so much other types of snow events we get. A KU would be nice for sure...but its not likely to happen...we haven't had a KU storm up here in 5 years, yet I recall many good snow events in that time.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

No, I think Zuck's problem is he keeps trying to apply the mid-atlantic KU cookbook to what we've been discussing and it misses the point. We aren't trying to cook up a KU in this type of pattern...our snows would come via SW flow events, clipper redevelopers, and retrograde systems.

So mentioning that we didn't have a monster +PNA ridge out west is nice for arguing against a KU, but not so much other types of snow events we get. A KU would be nice for sure...but its not likely to happen...we haven't had a KU storm up here in 5 years, yet I recall many good snow events in that time.

Thats a long time, I wonder what the average number of years between KU events is for sne, 5 seems a bit high.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

No, I think Zuck's problem is he keeps trying to apply the mid-atlantic KU cookbook to what we've been discussing and it misses the point. We aren't trying to cook up a KU in this type of pattern...our snows would come via SW flow events, clipper redevelopers, and retrograde systems.

So mentioning that we didn't have a monster +PNA ridge out west is nice for arguing against a KU, but not so much other types of snow events we get. A KU would be nice for sure...but its not likely to happen...we haven't had a KU storm up here in 5 years, yet I recall many good snow events in that time.

And we've had what...maybe 3 chances? 2 were suppressed and the other is just crap timing. I can't be down on a pattern when it's 12/9. I know he mentioned 12/5 as his first snow last year, and yes we did as well. However, my snow pretty much shut off in January and I had to limp just to get to 40" through the rest of the winter. Despite the epic setup, all we had were FU's. I have 3.5 months realistically to get to normal so I can't worry about that on 12/9. If I start "late" and still get snow through March...I'll welcome it.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

We get a KU magnitude storm (18"+) about once every 5-6 years...so its not all that rare to go that many seasons without one.

OK, Mine was obviously 2006.

:snowman: March :snowman:

I think 19th-27th is a decent time around sne, perhaps some issues down this way or out east, but we will get our snows.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

This isn't late yet for the NYC area...... Many a year you don't get much before 12/20... It is just a frustrating year because we feel that we have had synoptic opportunities since Thanskgiving and haven't capitalized yet. At least I had some good LES bands to end the boredom.

tho

I agree, it's not late for here particularly, but for places like BOS, ORH, PVD, BDL, etc. snowfall is starting to fall below normal, and this is in what many pinpointed as the "best month of winter." I'm taking into account the fact that 5 days from now, most of us still won't have received much at all.

Will, how much snowfall have you measured this season?

No, I think Zuck's problem is he keeps trying to apply the mid-atlantic KU cookbook to what we've been discussing and it misses the point. We aren't trying to cook up a KU in this type of pattern...our snows would come via SW flow events, clipper redevelopers, and retrograde systems.

So mentioning that we didn't have a monster +PNA ridge out west is nice for arguing against a KU, but not so much other types of snow events we get. A KU would be nice for sure...but its not likely to happen...we haven't had a KU storm up here in 5 years, yet I recall many good snow events in that time.

We can't even cook up a crappy 1-2" event lately, the type we didn't even used to discuss much. I think that's the main source of frustration, and part of it has to do with strong La Niña just not being that favorable from a climatological/synoptic history perspective. It's also pretty frustrating because we rarely see such sustained cold without at least a moderate snowfall...this is starting to look like December 2000 in terms of cold anomalies but where is the white?

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

I agree, it's not late for here particularly, but for places like BOS, ORH, PVD, BDL, etc. snowfall is starting to fall below normal, and this is in what many pinpointed as the "best month of winter." I'm taking into account the fact that 5 days from now, most of us still won't have received much at all.

Will, how much snowfall have you measured this season?

We can't even cook up a crappy 1-2" event lately, the type we didn't even used to discuss much. I think that's the main source of frustration, and part of it has to do with strong La Niña just not being that favorable from a climatological/synoptic history perspective. It's also pretty frustrating because we rarely see such sustained cold without at least a moderate snowfall...this is starting to look like December 2000 in terms of cold anomalies but where is the white?

I think your missing vt.?

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

I think your missing vt.?

[/b]

Yup. My house near NYC did get 68" last winter however, and it's been plenty cold here for snow in NYC metro, just bad timing. I'm not in a bad spot at 350' elevation about 10 miles north of the Bronx in a very wooded area.

The new NAM's giving some love to MSP.

MSP already has like 17" snowfall this year and would probably get another foot if the NAM verified...they are way above normal so far and look to stay that way with the northern stream continually attacking the Dakotas and Upper Midwest.

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trapperman

trapperman

Posted
Posted

Nice people out that way... I'm sure they would be willing to share?

How is this cold going to get scoured out? Wind and an inch of rain?

Sorry for jumping/trollng forums but NOTHING would make us happier than to see you guys get buried. Although we did sit in the cold with not much snow to show for it last year...

edit: with energy this strong don't you think it pops a secondary somewhere?

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Sorry for jumping/trollng forums but NOTHING would make us happier than to see you guys get buried. Although we did sit in the cold with not much snow to show for it last year...

edit: with energy this strong don't you think it pops a secondary somewhere?

Thanks, you guys are having a great winter after last years no show.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

We can't even cook up a crappy 1-2" event lately, the type we didn't even used to discuss much. I think that's the main source of frustration, and part of it has to do with strong La Niña just not being that favorable from a climatological/synoptic history perspective. It's also pretty frustrating because we rarely see such sustained cold without at least a moderate snowfall...this is starting to look like December 2000 in terms of cold anomalies but where is the white?

That's the point, we missed out on chances for small advisory type events.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Disagree. At 12z Sunday, the 00z nam is 4 mb weaker and further east......

Edit: what a mess at 66. lol

Eastern NY/extreme WNE massive dryslot.

10.8/1

I was talking about the initial development of the primary not at 12z Sunday...agree with what you said. Storm looks crappy though because the secondary is just going to be too late with the primary tracking so far west.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I agree, it's not late for here particularly, but for places like BOS, ORH, PVD, BDL, etc. snowfall is starting to fall below normal, and this is in what many pinpointed as the "best month of winter." I'm taking into account the fact that 5 days from now, most of us still won't have received much at all.

Will, how much snowfall have you measured this season?

We can't even cook up a crappy 1-2" event lately, the type we didn't even used to discuss much. I think that's the main source of frustration, and part of it has to do with strong La Niña just not being that favorable from a climatological/synoptic history perspective. It's also pretty frustrating because we rarely see such sustained cold without at least a moderate snowfall...this is starting to look like December 2000 in terms of cold anomalies but where is the white?

My first inch is on avg 12/8 iirc. It's 12/9. It's quite possible I wait over a week for it, but in only takes a couple of light events or one sizeable event to get me to normal. From what I see on the ensembles, I'm not worried yet.

It's also possible Jan and Feb are not totally doom and gloom. The MJO has barely had an effect on the pattern, and looks to go right back into the circle of death again. I'm not a long range expert, but if we continue to see these anomalies over Greenland by the end of the month...we may have to evaluate things again. We could go into the crapper in January for a time, but these persistent blocks usually don't like to go away quick, and the rather weak MJO isn't helping yet.

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