skierinvermont Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 The problem is every disturbance is entering the country too far north and not digging because it's a product of the GoA/PAC NW low; thus, these shortwaves are tracking very west-east across the Plains and not giving us much of a chance for snow. NYC has actually had two great winters with a +PNA/+NAO pattern: that would be 93-94 and 60-61. Those are hands down two of the best winters my area has ever experienced....we had 90" in Dobbs Ferry in 60-61 with a brutal January outbreak, and 60" and brutal cold in 93-94...both of these winters with no help from the Atlantic. That hasn't been what's going on at all. We had a favorable pattern and just didn't capitalize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 That hasn't been what's going on at all. We had a favorable pattern and just didn't capitalize. Pattern still hasn't been beautiful. Pacific won't relax for a NY second despite the high-latitude blocking. I haven't seen one classic system rounding the base of a big eastern trough dug out by the +PNA and forming the closed low over the Southeast or TN Valley like the hits we had last year. Obviously luck hasn't been on our side either with the NAO shifting around at exactly the wrong moment, but the strong Niña is definitely taking its toll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Maintain lower/realistic expectations and you can be suprised in a positive way. Ray Jr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 No they are not and this is a huge redflag GEFS Flooding issues in the greens? Its too bad, the resorts have made such inroads with snowmaking and the upslope during the past week. Hopefully its a shortlived liquid torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Well I think a large % of the problem is we are dealing with a northern stream dominant year. Therefore the tendency when a strong s/w comes up into the block is for it to run up west of it and if the block isn't that great to begin by this weekend so forget it. If we had a dominant sub tropical jet stream then much better chance this event on sunday coalesces on the coast someplace. But basically the energy is more nw and the surface low takes the path of least resistance. It has to end up somewhere near CYUL ....main argument in this marginal area is exactly how the lowest pressure gets to that point. Pattern still hasn't been beautiful. Pacific won't relax for a NY second despite the high-latitude blocking. I haven't seen one classic system rounding the base of a big eastern trough dug out by the +PNA and forming the closed low over the Southeast or TN Valley like the hits we had last year. Obviously luck hasn't been on our side either with the NAO shifting around at exactly the wrong moment, but the strong Niña is definitely taking its toll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Looks like that pattern has been darn common this year: Dude I could sh*t a better pattern than the one shown on the 12z ECM. The Pacific is a total mess...you're getting shortwaves entering the continent in BC, not much help for a NYC snow lover. We have filthy maritime air over Canada while -16C 850s sit over the Alps and lows get into the 20s in Northern Africa. There's an Iceland block on the Euro OP which is good for eastern Europe but not us. Where is the cold air coming from in this pattern? Where is the Pacific energy going to enter the picture? You are using a yearly composite to show that NAO blocks over quebec/labrador are common? That doesn't prove anything. And the map doesn't even show that really.. it shows an NAO block over greenland and slightly above average heights in quebec which isn't surprising given almost the whole world had above average heights. Show me past winter -NAO blocks that were over quebec. Nobody said the 12z euro had a good pattern.. what I said was the 12z Euro is probably wrong. The previous ECM ensemble means don't support it all and neither do the GFS ensemble means. The 12z Ensemble mean wasn't very good, but that is just one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Pattern still hasn't been beautiful. Pacific won't relax for a NY second despite the high-latitude blocking. I haven't seen one classic system rounding the base of a big eastern trough dug out by the +PNA and forming the closed low over the Southeast or TN Valley like the hits we had last year. Obviously luck hasn't been on our side either with the NAO shifting around at exactly the wrong moment, but the strong Niña is definitely taking its toll. Yeah I could agree with the last statement. I think mostly the NAO has been shifting around and strengthening/weakening at the wrong times for us, but a better Pacific would always help. In the LR though I would still much rather have a -NAO than favorable Pac if given the choice between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Look at what I posted GEFS is torch and rain for anyone East of Syracuse. wrong.. one period with possible mix extreme ENY late sunday aftn/eve then change to snow. Also many of you are bemoaning the fact of the Clipper forking up the cold air currently in place. While this is somewhat true and valid the air mass will remain dry in the wake of the clippers passing thus evap cooling will come into play especially over the interior local. 2ndly many of you are not paying attention the the artic boundary that will encroaching/approaching in a pseudo backdoor fashion from the N and NNW during Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Well I think a large % of the problem is we are dealing with a northern stream dominant year. Therefore the tendency when a strong s/w comes up into the block is for it to run up west of it and if the block isn't that great to begin by this weekend so forget it. If we had a dominant sub tropical jet stream then much better chance this event on sunday coalesces on the coast someplace. But basically the energy is more nw and the surface low takes the path of least resistance. It has to end up somewhere near CYUL ....main argument in this marginal area is exactly how the lowest pressure gets to that point. Yes, exactly....lack of southern stream and a very strong northern energy coming off the Pacific makes trouble for the East. We really need a great block to force redevelopment of these types of storms. You are using a yearly composite to show that NAO blocks over quebec/labrador are common? That doesn't prove anything. And the map doesn't even show that really.. it shows an NAO block over greenland and slightly above average heights in quebec which isn't surprising given almost the whole world had above average heights. Show my past winter -NAO blocks that were over quebec. Nobody said the 12z euro had a good pattern.. what I said was the 12z Euro is probably wrong. The previous ECM ensemble means don't support it all and neither do the GFS ensemble means. I was just saying that the connection between the NAO block and high 500 heights over the East has been common this year whereas the NAO is supposed to cause us to have lower heights. Of course, the Atlantic blocking is reducing the height field over the East currently, and probably will in the future given the magnitude of this -NAO/-AO which is truly record breaking, but I'm just pointing out the -NAO/SE ridge pattern has happened before. It's far more common in summer of course. I think the 12z ECM has some of the right ideas about blocking overwhelming the Canadian cold air source but I doubt it gets that extreme with such large anomalies. I think we'll be dealing with more below normal temperatures in most of the CONUS with moderately cold air, probably in the -10C to -15C range for NYC and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Yeah I could agree with the last statement. I think mostly the NAO has been shifting around and strengthening/weakening at the wrong times for us, but a better Pacific would always help. In the LR though I would still much rather have a -NAO than favorable Pac if given the choice between the two. I'd always take a +PNA/-EPO block over the -NAO. That's what's been proven to work out down here, and it always guarantees arctic air which is important in the early season regime. We had a very good Pacific for winters like 02-03, 93-94, and 60-61 despite the Atlantic set-up being mediocre, and we benefited greatly. I of course don't live in New England so I am more uncomfortable with a -PNA/-NAO pattern than someone in ORH would be. I still think the Pacific has been helping to muck things up lately....you can see that this current storm is forming from a wave coming into Northern Montana and heading into zonal flow; there's no reason for it to ever arrive at the longitude we need before developing and closing. There's just nothing lowering the heights so it can dig into the classic location for a Miller A (MS Valley or Gulf) or for a Miller b (Tennessee or Southern Ohio Valley). wrong.. one period with possible mix extreme ENY late sunday aftn/eve then change to snow. Also many of you are bemoaning the fact of the Clipper forking up the cold air currently in place. While this is somewhat true and valid the air mass will remain dry in the wake of the clippers passing thus evap cooling will come into play especially over the interior local. 2ndly many of you are not paying attention the the artic boundary that will encroaching/approaching in a pseudo backdoor fashion from the N and NNW during Sunday 18z GFS ENS show most of eastern NY well above 0C at 850mb. How is this not rain? I don't understand the backdoor front argument. If we're ahead of a surface low, it's going to be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 We've only had a couple of weeks worth of chances..heck maybe 7-10 days worth. In that time, 2 systems got squashed, and the next one happens to be digging early and phasing with the Hudson Bay PV as the nao block weakens and shift east. It's actually a nice pna ridge out west. We've had much worse patterns and capitalized on it. Lets chat this up in a few weeks and see where we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Look at what I posted GEFS is torch and rain for anyone East of Syracuse. I'm not expecting any torch, possibly mid 30's for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 I'd always take a +PNA/-EPO block over the -NAO. That's what's been proven to work out down here, and it always guarantees arctic air which is important in the early season regime. We had a very good Pacific for winters like 02-03, 93-94, and 60-61 despite the Atlantic set-up being mediocre, and we benefited greatly. I of course don't live in New England so I am more uncomfortable with a -PNA/-NAO pattern than someone in ORH would be. I still think the Pacific has been helping to muck things up lately....you can see that this current storm is forming from a wave coming into Northern Montana and heading into zonal flow; there's no reason for it to ever arrive at the longitude we need before developing and closing. There's just nothing lowering the heights so it can dig into the classic location for a Miller A (MS Valley or Gulf) or for a Miller b (Tennessee or Southern Ohio Valley). 18z GFS ENS show most of eastern NY well above 0C at 850mb. How is this not rain? I don't understand the backdoor front argument. If we're ahead of a surface low, it's going to be warm. You and skier should start your own War and Peace sub forum rinse repeat Andy the best dynamics on the GeFS come in that period, yea you change to snow but it's a dryer out atmosphere with little if none anafrontal, actually even dry slotted. IDK what you are looking at EURO Ens look similar. Based on ENS EMA has a great shot at accumulating when the 5h axis rotates dynamics into a cold Env. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 We've only had a couple of weeks worth of chances..heck maybe 7-10 days worth. In that time, 2 systems got squashed, and the next one happens to be digging early and phasing with the Hudson Bay PV as the nao block weakens and shift east. It's actually a nice pna ridge out west. We've had much worse patterns and capitalized on it. Lets chat this up in a few weeks and see where we are. God, you're so level headed. I'm not sure there's room for that in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 LOL, the weeklies. They keep a west based nao block the entire period. It bounces around between the Davis Straits and far ne Canada.The only thing that's sort of meh, is that we have low heights in the Bering Sea. However, thet heights out west are neutral to slightly postive, while heights in the se are negative. As usual, take these FWIW. In da face Nina. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 LOL, the weeklies. They keep a west based nao block the entire period. It bounces around between the Davis Straits and far ne Canada.The only thing that's sort of meh, is that we have low heights in the Bering Sea. However, thet heights out west are neutral to slightly postive, while heights in the se are negative. As usual, take these FWIW. In da face Nina. LOL La Niña is saying in da face to us as we sit on a trace for the season into the 2nd half of December. I had my first accumulation snow in the NYC metro suburbs on 12/5 last year. Looks like this time around it'll be much later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 LOL, the weeklies. They keep a west based nao block the entire period. It bounces around between the Davis Straits and far ne Canada.The only thing that's sort of meh, is that we have low heights in the Bering Sea. However, thet heights out west are neutral to slightly postive, while heights in the se are negative. As usual, take these FWIW. In da face Nina. LOL How is the GoA looking? Bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 We've only had a couple of weeks worth of chances..heck maybe 7-10 days worth. In that time, 2 systems got squashed, and the next one happens to be digging early and phasing with the Hudson Bay PV as the nao block weakens and shift east. It's actually a nice pna ridge out west. We've had much worse patterns and capitalized on it. Lets chat this up in a few weeks and see where we are. God Euro ENS look awful way ahead but great post cutter , nice rotating 5 H axis with reflected surface LP, like that, good chance for the Eastern guys, hanging my hat on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 La Niña is saying in da face to us as we sit on a trace for the season into the 2nd half of December. I had my first accumulation snow in the NYC metro suburbs on 12/5 last year. Looks like this time around it'll be much later. What's this "we" sh*t? What is your average snowfall down there by 12/10? Can't be more than a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 How is the GoA looking? Bad? Well lower heights are further west toward the Aleuatians and Bering Sea. I think that normally might not be good, but like I said, that block is forcing lower heights over the southeast. Heights are neutral to slightly + out west. I'd say neutral. I can only see anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 What's this "we" sh*t? What is your average snowfall down there by 12/10? Can't be more than a few inches. Exactly, he blames everything on Nina because all his eggs are in that basket. Typical start to winter, Mts first, then lower els, has been dry for sure but not unusual for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 LOL, the weeklies. They keep a west based nao block the entire period. It bounces around between the Davis Straits and far ne Canada.The only thing that's sort of meh, is that we have low heights in the Bering Sea. However, thet heights out west are neutral to slightly postive, while heights in the se are negative. As usual, take these FWIW. In da face Nina. LOL Other than the 1-2 inch clipper snows the Euro brought back tomorrow..this is the first good news we've had all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 La Niña is saying in da face to us as we sit on a trace for the season into the 2nd half of December. I had my first accumulation snow in the NYC metro suburbs on 12/5 last year. Looks like this time around it'll be much later. Climatologically, you should be much later. 12.7/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Other than the 1-2 inch clipper snows the Euro brought back tomorrow..this is the first good news we've had all day Are you going to beat that drum again???? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Are you going to beat that drum again???? lol Like we told you..modelling would bring back the light snow event tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Kevin... I made a thread just for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Other than the 1-2 inch clipper snows the Euro brought back tomorrow..this is the first good news we've had all day Look at the Euro Ens , you will head to the Tobin. FWIW to you coming from me I think we are gonna like Tuesday into Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Look at the Euro Ens , you will head to the Tobin. FWIW to you coming from me I think we are gonna like Tuesday into Wed. Hey snow tomorrow night and snow Monday..I'm not complaining..Weeklies FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Exactly, he blames everything on Nina because all his eggs are in that basket. Typical start to winter, Mts first, then lower els, has been dry for sure but not unusual for sure. Well, everybody wants snow and the longer it goes without snowing in the I-95 corridor the more the warministas will be crowing. Mercifully, I don't think we go to much longer without a widespread snowfall. I think all of New England will end up with a white Christmas. Of course, Dobbs Ferry, NY isn't in New England so....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Well, everybody wants snow and the longer it goes without snowing in the I-95 corridor the more the warministas will be crowing. Mercifully, I don't think we go to much longer without a widespread snowfall. I think all of New England will end up with a white Christmas. Of course, Dobbs Ferry, NY isn't in New England so....... Indeed, it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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