I have an idea - let's start a new talking points thread

[cpickett79]

for this system there appears few questions left...but some are of monumental proportions for the at risk areas.

I think the further SW one gets in SNE the better potential they have ....save from the immediate S ct coast.

if i was sitting high atop the NW connecticut border i would still have some hope (i.e 20% shot of warning criteria snowfall) for this thing.

the southern piece of energy is going to throw a F'N party and IMO bomb ......further S and explosive the better i think. Western CT... has a far better shot than ORH in this scenario with a system running S-N or even possibly SSE-NNW. Longitude seems a much more valuable commodity than latitude with this thing...

If i could draw a line from NW CT to Logan's house just west of the HV i think they are very much in the game for a heavy duty blitzing of S N O W.

Here's hoping the models keep things interesting for the above mentioned areas for the next 48 hours. gonna be interesting to see where the negative tilt shows up on this trough.

[ski MRG]

my confidence is rattled as to how much though.

This really is an issue of whether we correct toward a needle threader or not - we don't have enough PP N (though some reason NAM runs seems to build that a little more...). But, there is room for that correction to take place for stated reasons.

Well, I'm hoping for the best. I think some folks would be well served by listening to your admonitions about being overly emotionally invested in the outcome. That said, I'm an eternal optimist so even if we get a less than desired solution my enthusiasm for this winter will be undaunted. So often the hype about a storm like this being a total snowpack killer is just that, hype. I'm envisioning a nice permacrust being left in the wake of this system. Perfect base builder.

[Logan11]

Mt. Frissell FTW.

if i was sitting high atop the NW connecticut border i would still have some hope (i.e 20% shot of warning criteria snowfall) for this thing.

If i could draw a line from NW CT to Logan's house just west of the HV i think they are very much in the game for a heavy duty blitzing of S N O W.

Here's hoping the models keep things interesting for the above mentioned areas for the next 48 hours. gonna be interesting to see where the negative tilt shows up on this trough.

[cpickett79]

Well, I'm hoping for the best. I think some folks would be well served by listening to your admonitions about being overly emotionally invested in the outcome. That said, I'm an eternal optimist so even if we get a less than desired solution my enthusiasm for this winter will be undaunted. So often the hype about a storm like this being a total snowpack killer is just that, hype. I'm envisioning a nice permacrust being left in the wake of this system. Perfect base builder.

that is the best perspective to take IMO.

Watch this whole thing correct south...with the building greenland block....have the negative tilt set up on the southern edge of guidance...bomb fast .... and bring ....NY up thru the east slope of the berks crippling snow...just sayin there's a chance....east of that there really isn't (it would appear) and if not .....big whoop more snow will come

[grinch1989]

for this system there appears few questions left...but some are of monumental proportions for the at risk areas.

I think the further SW one gets in SNE the better potential they have ....save from the immediate S ct coast.

if i was sitting high atop the NW connecticut border i would still have some hope (i.e 20% shot of warning criteria snowfall) for this thing.

the southern piece of energy is going to throw a F'N party and IMO bomb ......further S and explosive the better i think. Western CT... has a far better shot than ORH in this scenario with a system running S-N or even possibly SSE-NNW. Longitude seems a much more valuable commodity than latitude with this thing...

If i could draw a line from NW CT to Logan's house just west of the HV i think they are very much in the game for a heavy duty blitzing of S N O W.

Here's hoping the models keep things interesting for the above mentioned areas for the next 48 hours. gonna be interesting to see where the negative tilt shows up on this trough.

You are my new favorite poster...haha But I agree that at least NWCT is still very much in the game for a least a few inches. Maybe Goshen gets seasonal double digits by the end of this mess!

[Hazey]

Well I'm taking off my winter tires this weekend. No sense wearing the tread off them. Plus the all seasons are better for water siping and fuel economy. Both of which I am going to benefit from more so than traction in snow. Who knows, perhaps that will help kick this pattern out of the toilet. I'll re-evaluate things in a couple of weeks.

[ski MRG]

that is the best perspective to take IMO.

Watch this whole thing correct south...with the building greenland block....have the negative tilt set up on the southern edge of guidance...bomb fast .... and bring ....NY up thru the east slope of the berks crippling snow...just sayin there's a chance....east of that there really isn't (it would appear) and if not .....big whoop more snow will come

I was wondering what some of the average seasonal snowfalls througfh this date would be in SNE, especially the CP. My geuss is that they are not that far off from average.Certainly below as I gather there are areas that have yet to see any snow but still, I bet the CP isn't that far from the norm. I can totally understand about being desperate for the first snow but that has to be tempered with what can realistically be expected at any given locale. I really do look forward to the first all encompassing snow bomb to go off. I really like reading the excited posts everybody makes when it's snowing. It's a good vibe, feel good kinda thing. Hell, even Ray starts making effusive, happy posts.lol

[nzucker]

that is the best perspective to take IMO.

Watch this whole thing correct south...with the building greenland block....have the negative tilt set up on the southern edge of guidance...bomb fast .... and bring ....NY up thru the east slope of the berks crippling snow...just sayin there's a chance....east of that there really isn't (it would appear) and if not .....big whoop more snow will come

There is no surprise "south correction" coming to the extent that you need it. Overall, the GFS and GGEM have trended into more of an agreement with the ECM that this storm is a rain event with a low moving up the Hudson Valley or perhaps a bit west of there. From 0z last night to 18z today, the GFS made the only "correction" necessary to adjust west and stronger with the primary.

Here is the 0z:

And the newer 18z GFS:

The eastern Berkshires and much of NY will see rain from the system.

[moneypitmike]

I was wondering what some of the average seasonal snowfalls througfh this date would be in SNE, especially the CP. My geuss is that they are not that far off from average.Certainly below as I gather there are areas that have yet to see any snow but still, I bet the CP isn't that far from the norm. I can totally understand about being desperate for the first snow but that has to be tempered with what can realistically be expected at any given locale. I really do look forward to the first all encompassing snow bomb to go off. I really like reading the excited posts everybody makes when it's snowing. It's a good vibe, feel good kinda thing. Hell, even Ray starts making effusive, happy posts.lol

A really good point, Pete.

I'm not ruling things out by any means, but I'm pretty content to let it unfold hoping for the best and preparing for the largely gross model depictions.

Temp slow to drop tongiht. 14.3/2 off my high of 18.7.

[Logan11]

Yep it seems like they are locking in on that track from like E. PA to NJ north to ALB to UCA then to YUL to YOW. somewhere inside that box......

So for us here realistically, a small front end..maybe just PL, some FZRA, eventually plain rain mid 30s, flash freeze and flip back to snow 1-2" at end or so as it goes severely negative and some wrap around but only a few hours worth.

We still can hope for luck and have it track like NYC to PSF to SLK ...more of a bow track as it is drawn back into the mother upper low... But odds less than 50% on that given trends. That would be our best shot because it could mean several inches of back end snow.

There is no surprise "south correction" coming to the extent that you need it. Overall, the GFS and GGEM have trended into more of an agreement with the ECM that this storm is a rain event with a low moving up the Hudson Valley or perhaps a bit west of there. From 0z last night to 18z today, the GFS made the only "correction" necessary to adjust west and stronger with the primary.

Here is the 0z:

And the newer 18z GFS:

The eastern Berkshires and much of NY will see rain from the system.

[Wx4cast]

I think that was the rosey scenario in ALB's discussion... But I never say die when it comes to snow. Still time to pull out something here I guess....

10F ...Zero could be within reach.

We won't lose the snow Rick. Even if the worst case happens we'll pick a liitle front end thump up, then a period of pl/zr, maybe a few hours of rain then the flash freeze and some snow at the end. This will create the perfect hardpack base for the all the snow that will fall after this storm that everyone seems so despondent over. Silly.

We'll do better than many think. When OP models' ensembles across the board are in consensus and colder than the op models are this should be and is a red flag alert.

[ski MRG]

A really good point, Pete.

I'm not ruling things out by any means, but I'm pretty content to let it unfold hoping for the best and preparing for the largely gross model depictions.

Temp slow to drop tongiht. 14.3/2 off my high of 18.7.

10/1 here currently. Sunday will be fine either way, a good day to lay about, rest, watch football.

[Damage In Tolland]

Should be some decent backside snows with this..Zuckertubesocks FTL

[ski MRG]

We'll do better than many think. When OP models' ensembles across the board are in consensus and colder than the op models are this should be and is a red flag alert.

I've seen this doomsday scenario painted many times before. It looks like a run of the mill snow to mix to rain to snow event to me and those usually leave more snow on the ground in their wake. I'm with you on this, you might want to mention this possibility to the prophet Zucker as he seems to feel all hope is lost and the end is near.

[Wx4cast]

There is no surprise "south correction" coming to the extent that you need it. Overall, the GFS and GGEM have trended into more of an agreement with the ECM that this storm is a rain event with a low moving up the Hudson Valley or perhaps a bit west of there. From 0z last night to 18z today, the GFS made the only "correction" necessary to adjust west and stronger with the primary.

Here is the 0z:

And the newer 18z GFS:

The eastern Berkshires and much of NY will see rain from the system.

Oh really?

[nzucker]

Should be some decent backside snows with this..Zuckertubesocks FTL

The problem is the models have trended towards bombing the surface low out later and not quite as strong, which results in less of a backlash band...the surface low takes an unusual hook track as it gets captured at 500mb and then winds up a huge deformation band over central Quebec which is going to rob pretty much everywhere else. I'd think your are sees less than 1" of backlash.

[Wx4cast]

I've seen this doomsday scenario painted many times before. It looks like a run of the mill snow to mix to rain to snow event to me and those usually leave more snow on the ground in their wake. I'm with you on this, you might want to mention this possibility to the prophet Zucker as he seems to feel all hope is lost and the end is near.

I did already. He is a good map reader; he just doesn't know how to "interpret" the data sometimes.

[nzucker]

Oh really?

I'm not talking about the higher elevations of the Dacks where you do a lot of forecasting for...but I'm definitely thinking the entire Hudson Valley and most of the Catskills are seeing rain from this storm. Even Logan's area will probably change over for a while. At 72 on the 18z GFS the 0C line runs from Lake Ontario to around Elmira; the 18z NAM is even warmer with no one in NYS below freezing besides maybe Jamestown where there'd still be some p-type issues. Heck, even Whiteface goes to rain on the 18z NAM.

[ski MRG]

Should be some decent backside snows with this..Zuckertubesocks FTL

Sounds like the villain in a kids story.lol "Then the Zuckertubesocks put the children in the dungeon and......."

[ski MRG]

I did already. He is a good map reader; he just doesn't know how to "interpret" the data sometimes.

Nate is a great poster and a welcome member as far as I'm concerned. He just needs several more decades of experience to call upon.

[nzucker]

Sounds like the villain in a kids story.lol "Then the Zuckertubesocks put the children in the dungeon and......."

Wow this is an epic quote, dude.

I seriously might have to save it.

[Wx4cast]

I'm not talking about the higher elevations of the Dacks where you do a lot of forecasting for...but I'm definitely thinking the entire Hudson Valley and most of the Catskills are seeing rain from this storm. Even Logan's area will probably change over for a while. At 72 on the 18z GFS the 0C line runs from Lake Ontario to around Elmira; the 18z NAM is even warmer with no one in NYS below freezing besides maybe Jamestown where there'd still be some p-type issues. Heck, even Whiteface goes to rain on the 18z NAM.

Ensemble data has been consistently colder and also farther east on the LP track Albany ensmble 850 temps DON NOT get above 0C nor do the 925 temps either.

Artic boundary to the NW and N will be critical too. Models aren't handling this feature too ell yet GEFS and UK at least have a clue as to its existence.

[Ginx snewx]

We'll do better than many think. When OP models' ensembles across the board are in consensus and colder than the op models are this should be and is a red flag alert.

No they are not and this is a huge redflag GEFS

[nzucker]

Ensemble data has been consistently colder and also farther east on the LP track Albany ensmble 850 temps DON NOT get above 0C nor do the 925 temps either.

Artic boundary to the NW and N will be critical too. Models aren't handling this feature too ell yet GEFS and UK at least have a clue as to its existence.

The ensembles especially GFS are almost always SE biased and colder so I'm not too surprised if you're talking about GEFS. I just think the track of the storm looks poor and the crappy clipper passing through James Bay has brought in a lot of WAA and chewed up the arctic airmass in place tonight.

[Logan11]

I certainly understand where Andy is coming from and hope he is correct. What he describes is more of the bow track from NJ/NYC up through W. NE and maybe then nnw to SLK etc. That reminds me of the track of the bombing low in later October 2008 that gave me the freak 9 inches..nothing close to that low's magnitude coming though I'm sure.

The only caveat re: the ensembles would be that sometimes the ensl mean can be east of the op due to the spread and I have been to lazy to analyze individual members.

Wow this is an epic quote, dude.

I seriously might have to save it.

[ski MRG]

Wow this is an epic quote, dude.

I seriously might have to save it.

LOL, please do but give credit to Blizz for Zuckertubesocks was his brainchild.

[Ginx snewx]

The ensembles especially GFS are almost always SE biased and colder so I'm not too surprised if you're talking about GEFS. I just think the track of the storm looks poor and the crappy clipper passing through James Bay has brought in a lot of WAA and chewed up the arctic airmass in place tonight.

Look at what I posted GEFS is torch and rain for anyone East of Syracuse.

[nzucker]

Look at what I posted GEFS is torch and rain for anyone East of Syracuse.

The 18z GEFS don't look cold to me, perhaps he's discussing another run?

[CoastalWx]

Boy do we need a widespread snow event badly...lol.

[nzucker]

Look at what I posted GEFS is torch and rain for anyone East of Syracuse.

Yeah not sure what ensembles he's discussing. It's also a red flag that tilts one to forecast a warmer solution when the generally cold, SE-biased GEFS come in that warm.