I have an idea - let's start a new talking points thread

[ORH_wxman]

The couple of storm potentials we had earlier this month we're messed up because the lead s/w was either too close, and ultimately suppressed our storm, or because the lead s/w broke too early, retreating north instead of tracking under the Greenland ridge, which allowed our storm to cut north to the Lakes.

This time, s/w spacing would be pretty good .... if there WAS a lead s/w lol. The whole reason for the lakes cutter this time is that our clipper fizzled down to nothing

I don't think its the whole reason...we have a very east based -NAO which gives room for this system to amplify to our west if it phases enough, which its going to do. This past week we had a west based -NAO and got screwed by some nuances in the flow...the setup in this one had more risk....but it doesn't mean we couldn't have gotten a snow event....we get plenty of them ina pattern like this, but it just wasn't as favorable as this period we are exiting out of.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll be at the Garden in an hour and twenty minutes.

I'll wave.

You goin to the game....I'll text you.

Go to Sully's Tap before.

[CoastalWx]

The couple of storm potentials we had earlier this month we're messed up because the lead s/w was either too close, and ultimately suppressed our storm, or because the lead s/w broke too early, retreating north instead of tracking under the Greenland ridge, which allowed our storm to cut north to the Lakes.

This time, s/w spacing would be pretty good .... if there WAS a lead s/w lol. The whole reason for the lakes cutter this time is that our clipper fizzled down to nothing

It's a combo of a few things. It's 12/9 so it's certainly not unheard of to have a crappy start. It does help to have the key ingredients of ridging out west and blocking to the northeast, but it's not everything. We've seen that over the last 2 Ninas.

My concern for later next week is the PV phasing with one of the shortwaves in the Plains and lack of colder air. That may be a function of the nao.

[free_man]

Yes but everything is digging early, not as the longitude we want, because the whole trough structure is too far NW with the shortwaves originating from a GoA low instead of rocketing down a +PNA ridge and then getting a redeveloping clipper at a favorable longitude and having a Miller B snowstorm.

And yes I am a bit angry, this pattern is a joke...-15C 850s then rain then -20C 850s then rain, I mean talk about wasted cold and opportunities!

You are overboard with the Pacific impacts.  That is just one small part of it.   We've had an awful looking Pacific and snowfalls;   much worse looking,  infact. 

[Damage In Tolland]

ALB likes colder , snowier, Tippier solution

SEVERAL 12Z/GEFS MEMBERS HINT AT AN EVEN GREATER

SEPARATION OF THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY...WITH A SECOND...MORE

SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALLOWING FOR A STRONGER COASTAL LOW

DEVELOPING MON INTO TUE. SHOULD THIS SOLUTION COME TO

FRUITION...WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST

PORTIONS OF THE REGION MON-MON NT. OTHERWISE...ASSUMING THE OTHER

SOLUTIONS...OR A BLEND THEREOF...OCCURS...WE WOULD EXPERIENCE A

BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX SUN MORNING...CHANGING TO PLAIN

RAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FOR SUN NT...BEFORE

CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FROM W TO E MON MORNING. WE HAVE SIDED WITH

THIS LAST SOLUTION...BUT AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE

HIGH...AND WE STILL COULD TREND TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION.

[moneypitmike]

ALB likes colder , snowier, Tippier solution

SEVERAL 12Z/GEFS MEMBERS HINT AT AN EVEN GREATER

SEPARATION OF THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY...WITH A SECOND...MORE

SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALLOWING FOR A STRONGER COASTAL LOW

DEVELOPING MON INTO TUE. SHOULD THIS SOLUTION COME TO

FRUITION...WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST

PORTIONS OF THE REGION MON-MON NT. OTHERWISE...ASSUMING THE OTHER

SOLUTIONS...OR A BLEND THEREOF...OCCURS...WE WOULD EXPERIENCE A

BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX SUN MORNING...CHANGING TO PLAIN

RAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FOR SUN NT...BEFORE

CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FROM W TO E MON MORNING. WE HAVE SIDED WITH

THIS LAST SOLUTION...BUT AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE

HIGH...AND WE STILL COULD TREND TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION.

Congrats, Andy and Rick.

16.4/4

[radarman]

Lace up the skates - great smooth ponds... Sunday's rain will smooth them out more when they freeze up again Mon/Tues followed by torch next weekend

[ChrisM]

ALB likes colder , snowier, Tippier solution

SEVERAL 12Z/GEFS MEMBERS HINT AT AN EVEN GREATER

SEPARATION OF THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY...WITH A SECOND...MORE

SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALLOWING FOR A STRONGER COASTAL LOW

DEVELOPING MON INTO TUE. SHOULD THIS SOLUTION COME TO

FRUITION...WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST

PORTIONS OF THE REGION MON-MON NT. OTHERWISE...ASSUMING THE OTHER

SOLUTIONS...OR A BLEND THEREOF...OCCURS...WE WOULD EXPERIENCE A

BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX SUN MORNING...CHANGING TO PLAIN

RAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FOR SUN NT...BEFORE

CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FROM W TO E MON MORNING. WE HAVE SIDED WITH

THIS LAST SOLUTION...BUT AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE

HIGH...AND WE STILL COULD TREND TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION.

maybe some hope for home?

[moneypitmike]

ALB likes colder , snowier, Tippier solution

. WE HAVE SIDED WITH

THIS LAST SOLUTION...BUT AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE

HIGH...AND WE STILL COULD TREND TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION.

Upon closer read--they hold out the hope. But to say they "like" it is a bit of a stretch.

16.0/4

[Ginx snewx]

Phil getting mighty close to your threshold, holy wind

[Mr Torchey]

gfs agrees with nam, copious amounts of rain across eastern new england, and wants nothing to do with the euro retro solution for mid week.

[ski MRG]

I'm off to the Bs game.....and to freeze my azz of walking from the car to Sully's Tap; cold and dry blows dead goats.

OMG, you poor thing! How far of a walk? 3minutes? Hope you survive.

[Logan11]

Look at it is this way New England... At least you have nothing to lose this weekend.

I stand to lose my hard fought several inches of snow cover....

You are overboard with the Pacific impacts. That is just one small part of it. We've had an awful looking Pacific and snowfalls; much worse looking, infact.

[Logan11]

I think that was the rosey scenario in ALB's discussion... But I never say die when it comes to snow. Still time to pull out something here I guess....

10F ...Zero could be within reach.

Congrats, Andy and Rick.

16.4/4

[ski MRG]

Look at it is this way New England... At least you have nothing to lose this weekend.

I stand to lose my hard fought several inches of snow cover....

We won't lose the snow Rick. Even if the worst case happens we'll pick a liitle front end thump up, then a period of pl/zr, maybe a few hours of rain then the flash freeze and some snow at the end. This will create the perfect hardpack base for the all the snow that will fall after this storm that everyone seems so despondent over. Silly.

[Typhoon Tip]

ALB likes colder , snowier, Tippier solution

SEVERAL 12Z/GEFS MEMBERS HINT AT AN EVEN GREATER

SEPARATION OF THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY...WITH A SECOND...MORE

SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALLOWING FOR A STRONGER COASTAL LOW

DEVELOPING MON INTO TUE. SHOULD THIS SOLUTION COME TO

FRUITION...WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST

PORTIONS OF THE REGION MON-MON NT. OTHERWISE...ASSUMING THE OTHER

SOLUTIONS...OR A BLEND THEREOF...OCCURS...WE WOULD EXPERIENCE A

BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX SUN MORNING...CHANGING TO PLAIN

RAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FOR SUN NT...BEFORE

CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FROM W TO E MON MORNING. WE HAVE SIDED WITH

THIS LAST SOLUTION...BUT AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE

HIGH...AND WE STILL COULD TREND TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION.

thanks but it is actually the Meteorological solution they are siding with

[ski MRG]

thanks but it is actually the Meteorological solution they are siding with

I think your correction vector has merit and is a very apt description of what will happen with the model solutions over the next 48-72 hours.

[nzucker]

Well there's the reason for the analog showing up.

Next week has a -pna with the nao ridge bulging west. After that, heights build out west, and that's perhaps our next threat...if next week does not work out. We'll need that ridge to rid of the marine puke up there.

What do you think of threat showing up on the GFS at like Day 7/8 with a clipper in ND, it seems? Could that slide down the PNA ridge and then amplify into a Miller B storm with the blocking to the NE?

[CoastalWx]

Maybe that separate area of qpf associated with the llj moving north can help out western ma. Both the euro and gfs have it it seems, but euro further west. I'm not sure if it's real, but I suppose it's not impossible. Otherwise, it continues warm.

[Typhoon Tip]

I think your correction vector has merit and is a very apt description of what will happen with the model solutions over the next 48-72 hours.

my confidence is rattled as to how much though.

This really is an issue of whether we correct toward a needle threader or not - we don't have enough PP N (though some reason NAM runs seems to build that a little more...). But, there is room for that correction to take place for stated reasons.

[CoastalWx]

What do you think of threat showing up on the GFS at like Day 7/8 with a clipper in ND, it seems? Could that slide down the PNA ridge and then amplify into a Miller B storm with the blocking to the NE?

Yeah I suppose, the gfs likes that, although there isn't much ridging out that way on the gfs. EC ensembles seem to like a more +pna. That's probably the one to watch, but the way things are going..nothing is a lock.

[mahk_webstah]

13.8 on the way to the coldest night of the season so far.

I think the primary will weaken more than projected and we will have a colder solution than predicted right now. Probably wont' be enough for here but I just think it will end up a colder solution...I think the strange model disparities are pointing in that direction. I think come Tuesday morning there will be some snow on the ground over WSNE, CNE and NNE.

[Damage In Tolland]

Even BOX has us all turning over to snow Monday morning

[ChrisM]

I don't know if anyone still cares...but will that low off NC at 84 hrs on the 18z nam do anything from the way things look? Haven't been around

[CoastalWx]

Even BOX has us all turning over to snow Monday morning

Yeah that was always possible, especially for western areas.

[ChrisM]

Yeah that was always possible, especially for western areas.

how much QPF do you think realistically falls after that though?

[CoastalWx]

how much QPF do you think realistically falls after that though?

I don't know to be honest, it all depends on how this thing evolves. As of now, not very much at all, but your area and western mass...given your longitude, should keep an eye out. As of now, I wouldn't expect too much.

[ChrisM]

I don't know to be honest, it all depends on how this thing evolves. As of now, not very much at all, but your area and western mass...given your longitude, should keep an eye out. As of now, I wouldn't expect too much.

yeah, well I'm stuck at school at UConn so I'm really not expecting more than an inch or two here but I'd think a couple lucky inches might be possible at home. We have 1000' and pretty westerly longitude compared to most SNE. It'll be interesting at least.

[moneypitmike]

I don't know to be honest, it all depends on how this thing evolves. As of now, not very much at all, but your area and western mass...given your longitude, should keep an eye out. As of now, I wouldn't expect too much.

Maintain lower/realistic expectations and you can be suprised in a positive way.

[CT Rain]

18z GFS cold produce a couple surprise inches of snow somewhere on Monday behind the low with a strong s/w wrapping around the cut-off.