I have an idea - let's start a new talking points thread

[CoastalWx]

if it's going to get replaced by negative heights...let's hope they are extreme so the downstream effect is warped.

Everything sort of relaxes in the long term and colder air comes down from Canada. Naturally, things dampen on the ensembles as you go out in time anyways, but that's how it looks. We still have above avg heights over Hudson Bay. I wonder if we see the block build back again? I remember a couple of weeks ago, models broke down the block for a few runs, but then it suddenly came back within like 2 days.

[Zeus]

End of the nam run features some serious downpours across eastern new england, it appears as though its trying to crank up a secondary down in the carolinas. Lets hope so.

It seems unlikely to me, from that setup on the NAM, that the secondary you speak of would bring much in the way of wintry funstuffs to any of us.

[Mr Torchey]

It seems unlikely to me, from that setup on the NAM, that the secondary you speak of would bring much in the way of wintry funstuffs to any of us.

Agreed, but it might be the difference between an inch of snow behind the front and nothing, so at least it would give some a chance.

[Zeus]

Agreed, but it might be the difference between an inch of snow behind the front and nothing, so at least it would give some a chance.

I think you've had one too many libations out there in Litchfield.

[nzucker]

Anyone here will tell you I'm the most optimistic wx poster on the boards..always looking for how things will work out to our advantage..more snow..higher winds etc..it's what makes mea weenie...but in the face of overwhelming model and met support i just can't fake myself out in thinking this is nothing more than a warm rainstorm with a quick flip to snow on Monday. i do think we'll see an inch or 3 on monday as it changes over..but all in all it's rain whether it corrects east,west north or south ,..it doesn't matter..there's no cold high to lock in north drain. All we're looking at is a 38 degree rain vs a 55 degree rain

There's no way this storm is anything but rain for SNE..maybe starts as a bit of mixing and ends with a dusting of snow in the Berkshires. Hello people, the 850 0C contour is up to Quebec City with a 990mb low cutting through Lake Huron and Detroit as the NAO block recedes eastward and a storm deepens over the Midwest. There's no cold high to the north to lock in any ageo flow so this is not an icing threat, not a snow threat, just a rainstorm. The ECM has shown this for days so I don't understand why there is so much argument or moping...it latched onto this solution like 6 days ago and hasn't given up. As I said to someone else, you can feel confident riding the Euro even when it's against all other models such as GFS/GGEM/UKMET. Doesn't matter. Storm is rain and ECM has shown this for days. Next please...

Look at it this way.. the problem D5-10 on the Euro is the NAO block sets up way too far south and ends up merging with the SE ridge. How likely is that honestly? Not very likely.

Last night's euro sort of did that but not nearly as much. The ensembles didn't really do it at all and keeps the NAO block in a classic spot over Baffin Bay. To have that on the Euro ensembles D7-10+ is pure gold. I don't care what the 12z op shows. The 12z GFS ensembles also had a well positioned block that keeps us plenty cool for snow in the LR. A good pattern continues through the 20th at least.. and eventually we will cash in.

Looks like that pattern has been darn common this year:

Dude I could sh*t a better pattern than the one shown on the 12z ECM. The Pacific is a total mess...you're getting shortwaves entering the continent in BC, not much help for a NYC snow lover. We have filthy maritime air over Canada while -16C 850s sit over the Alps and lows get into the 20s in Northern Africa. There's an Iceland block on the Euro OP which is good for eastern Europe but not us. Where is the cold air coming from in this pattern? Where is the Pacific energy going to enter the picture?

[nzucker]

I am honestly sick of the -NAO. Just give me a good Pacific and I'll run with it.

[Mr Torchey]

I think you've had one too many libations out there in Litchfield.

? Most models show especially western new england flipping to snow with minor accumulations behind the front. Boston, yeah, cooked, torch rain, but you might clean up in the retro next week.

[nzucker]

? Most models show especially western new england flipping to snow with minor accumulations behind the front. Boston, yeah, cooked, torch rain, but you might clean up in the retro next week.

The NAM looks horrible for snow at the end. The secondary is forming too far west...all that's going to do is give everyone enhanced rainfall amounts.

[CT Rain]

I am honestly sick of the -NAO. Just give me a good Pacific and I'll run with it.

Please lets not get back to this

[CoastalWx]

I am honestly sick of the -NAO. Just give me a good Pacific and I'll run with it.

The Pacific means less up here then even at your latitude, but I'll take a good Pac anytime of the year.

That's all...don't want to start a war again.

[OKpowdah]

That doesn't matter Kevin - read carefully what I wrote. The point of what I wrote is understanding which direction this is most likely - or prone - to correct.

South is the answer.

Frankly, I think some of you allow this stuff to affect you on a personal level, and that is obtuse. I know of have kidded with you in the past in the spirit of comiseration, but gee wiz you're taking things too far with this palpable negativity. I think Scott isn't helping by egging you on - sure (haha) - but you really are coming across lately as seeing one thing and then having tunnel vision.

Look, it's up to you; you are letting disappointment cloud your judgement my young Jedi - I feel the anger inside. "Goooood. take your weapon, and strike me down, with all your anger, and your hatrid, and your journey to the dark side will be complete...."

Dude, barring an asteroid impact, the weather tomorrow or Monday or a 3 weeks from two years ago has no real bearing on your life.

EVEN if for some reason this trends notably southeast, there is still nothing to lock cold air in over New England, and no mechanism for strong lift on the front end of the storm so there would still not be any notable snow for anyone in SNE. The low would have to shift many hundreds of miles southeast from where the model consensus is now to keep the region in the cold sector, which is 99% out of the question.

[CT Rain]

The Pacific means less up here then even at your latitude, but I'll take a good Pac anytime of the year.

That's all...don't want to start a war again.

Even for him it's a bad argument. 9/10 times NYC will do better with a -NAO than a good Pacific.

[Tropopause_Fold]

almost a norlun-like signature to the ec ens mean early/middle next week. not sure if it's actually a trough it is seeing or if some of the members have low pressure tucked in closer to NE...even with main low further offshore (like the op has)

[Ginx snewx]

Captain Obvious awards to those who point out the Euro is a rain storm, thanks for info, did not realize it.

[CoastalWx]

almost a norlun-like signature to the ec ens mean early/middle next week. not sure if it's actually a trough it is seeing or if some of the members have low pressure tucked in closer to NE...even with main low further offshore (like the op has)

They have decent precip probs this far out.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Captain Obvious awards to those who point out the Euro is a rain storm, thanks for info, did not realize it.

eh, some are still questioning the outcome it seems.

[Mr Torchey]

The NAM looks horrible for snow at the end. The secondary is forming too far west...all that's going to do is give everyone enhanced rainfall amounts.

You almost seem angry Zukie?

[moneypitmike]

EVEN if for some reason this trends notably southeast, there is still nothing to lock cold air in over New England, and no mechanism for strong lift on the front end of the storm so there would still not be any notable snow for anyone in SNE. The low would have to shift many hundreds of miles southeast from where the model consensus is now to keep the region in the cold sector, which is 99% out of the question.

I don't think John was talking about notable snows. WIntry perhaps, yes. But mostly, he was talking to track/redevelopment location. I'll let him speak for himself.

17.0/5, kind of a shame if we can't put today's 18.8* high to some use beyond pond freezing.

[CT Rain]

They have decent precip probs this far out.

I wonder if we parked the closed low on the op Euro even further SW like say over SE PA if we could see something even better in SNE?

[Ginx snewx]

Even for him it's a bad argument. 9/10 times NYC will do better with a -NAO than a good Pacific.

This times one hundred.

[CoastalWx]

Even for him it's a bad argument. 9/10 times NYC will do better with a -NAO than a good Pacific.

I know what he means though, we can have fun with a good Pac.

But, we've had so many good -nao periods in the past. It's just on roids right now, that's the issue, not the -nao itself. And this storm coming up?? You can thank the nice shift in the block for that.

[Ginx snewx]

I wonder if we parked the closed low on the op Euro even further SW like say over SE PA if we could see something even better in SNE?

You betcha, the Nam looked encouraging in that aspect, looks to close off further SW.

[HoarfrostHubb]

How long does a -nao like this typically last? Someone (I think last night - Ginx???) was pointing out the historic nature of it.

[Zeus]

? Most models show especially western new england flipping to snow with minor accumulations behind the front. Boston, yeah, cooked, torch rain, but you might clean up in the retro next week.

We were speaking specifically about the secondary depicted by the NAM on its most recent run, here, unless I'm missing something.

Not what "most models" show.

And my estimate, extrapolating that depiction, doesn't bring much of anything frozen to most folks here from that chunk.

[CoastalWx]

I wonder if we parked the closed low on the op Euro even further SW like say over SE PA if we could see something even better in SNE?

Well verbatim look at the surface temps. It rips S+ for 6 hours then we warm at the coast, so I don't want it too close or the ULL that far sw or it may bring the whole storm back into eastern mass..lol.

This could be a fairytale anyways, but I guess something to watch.

[Ginx snewx]

I know what he means though, we can have fun with a good Pac.

But, we've had so many good -nao periods in the past. It's just on roids right now, that's the issue, not the -nao itself. And this storm coming up?? You can thank the nice shift in the block for that.

Classic Archambault event, not all Heathers are snow, blocking relaxing just at the wrong time, relaxing and relocating not good.

[ORH_wxman]

Even for him it's a bad argument. 9/10 times NYC will do better with a -NAO than a good Pacific.

We had our shot from Dec 4-11...we didn't capitalize...lets hope after the lakes cutter, we can get another legit chance.

[nzucker]

Even for him it's a bad argument. 9/10 times NYC will do better with a -NAO than a good Pacific.

The problem is every disturbance is entering the country too far north and not digging because it's a product of the GoA/PAC NW low; thus, these shortwaves are tracking very west-east across the Plains and not giving us much of a chance for snow.

NYC has actually had two great winters with a +PNA/+NAO pattern: that would be 93-94 and 60-61. Those are hands down two of the best winters my area has ever experienced....we had 90" in Dobbs Ferry in 60-61 with a brutal January outbreak, and 60" and brutal cold in 93-94...both of these winters with no help from the Atlantic.

[Ginx snewx]

How long does a -nao like this typically last? Someone (I think last night - Ginx???) was pointing out the historic nature of it.

Who knows?, the means have been negative for what 14 months now?, the historic block seems to be off the table as heights are not quite as high as first progged.

[Tropopause_Fold]

The problem is every disturbance is entering the country too far north and not digging because it's a product of the GoA/PAC NW low; thus, these shortwaves are tracking very west-east across the Plains and not giving us much of a chance for snow.

NYC has actually had two great winters with a +PNA/+NAO pattern: that would be 93-94 and 60-61. Those are hands down two of the best winters my area has ever experienced....we had 90" in Dobbs Ferry in 60-61 with a brutal January outbreak, and 60" and brutal cold in 93-94...both of these winters with no help from the Atlantic.

this disturbance is going to have no trouble digging.