I have an idea - let's start a new talking points thread

[Damage In Tolland]

agree.

It's either take it out on my family or take it out on here by acting like a complete azz

[CT Rain]

Anyone here will tell you I'm the most optimistic wx poster on the boards..always looking for how things will work out to our advantage..more snow..higher winds etc..it's what makes mea weenie...but in the face of overwhelming model and met support i just can't fake myself out in thinking this is nothing more than a warm rainstorm with a quick flip to snow on Monday. i do think we'll see an inch or 3 on monday as it changes over..but all in all it's rain whether it corrects east,west north or south ,..it doesn't matter..there's no cold high to lock in north drain. All we're looking at is a 38 degree rain vs a 55 degree rain

And yes if it doesn't snow i get very pissed off. It bothers me to no end..and you're damn straight it affects my mood. Anyone that says it doesn;t is lying. period. It's why we're all here.

LOL that's why we love you.

I don't let no snow affect me personally, though. I've been there before. In the grand scheme of things it's really not that big of a deal... there's enough other stuff in life to not let it get to you that much.

[skierinvermont]

Look at it this way.. the problem D5-10 on the Euro is the NAO block sets up way too far south and ends up merging with the SE ridge. How likely is that honestly? Not very likely.

Last night's euro sort of did that but not nearly as much. The ensembles didn't really do it at all and keeps the NAO block in a classic spot over Baffin Bay. To have that on the Euro ensembles D7-10+ is pure gold. I don't care what the 12z op shows. The 12z GFS ensembles also had a well positioned block that keeps us plenty cool for snow in the LR. A good pattern continues through the 20th at least.. and eventually we will cash in.

[Ginx snewx]

We definitely got the shaft a bit for this 7 day period starting this past weekend. We had a favorable long wave setup...it was just the perfect strength though to screw us...any further north or south by a tweak and we likely would have cashed in with at least an advisory event if not warning.

Its funny how this next storm is a lakes cutter when it looked like a real threat about 5-6 days ago...because before that 5 or 6 days ago timeframe, I remember discussing with Scott about how we might see a brief warmup after the 10th...in the 12-13th time range...that actually turned out to be correct via the lakes cutter/HV runner.

Did you see the Euro loops I made, there was little waver from a cutter since Dec 3 , it baffles me that people are so upset and throwing in the towel for any snow ever. Many many years have a miss in a cold period, means little for the rest of the year.. Disappointing yes but not unexpected despite the GFS histrionics.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It's either take it out on my family or take it out on here by acting like a complete azz

we all love snow. hopefully it won't be too long until we have some around here.

there's a reason certain posters arrive and post more often during the winter season.

[Ginx snewx]

Because 9 times out of 10 I'm not going to believe a backdoor warm front delivering warning criteria snow to CT. Just doesn't happen that often.

I'm not saying the Euro is right in any of this. Many models don't depict the most favorable pattern in the next 10 days either.

How long have I known you for? Were you on IRC with all of us back in the day?

Yep, was sriwx live from URI LOL, I think you are very correct that modeling seems warmer yet there does seem to be some legit opportunities.

[Damage In Tolland]

we all love snow. hopefully it won't be too long until we have some around here.

there's a reason certain posters arrive and post more often during the winter season.

Exactly..Tip wasn't around all summer and fall and as soon as cold wx arrived he mysteriously showed up posting about winter storms and winter being here

[CoastalWx]

LOL that's why we love you.

I don't let no snow affect me personally, though. I've been there before. In the grand scheme of things it's really not that big of a deal... there's enough other stuff in life to not let it get to you that much.

It bothers me not to have snow. I'll admit it. I've always liked it since I was a kid, and still have the feeling for when it snows. I do have other things now, so unlike my childhood and adolescent years...I don't live for it, but I'm bumming when it doesn't snow. It's 12/9 and it's not the date that botthers me, I just hate to waste a good pattern. I'm used to Decembers that don't produce, but this pattern had promise...or at least I thought. Lets see what happens in the next couple of weeks. Perhaps when the nao breaks down a little, and ridging develops out west...things change. The euro ensembles still like the 20th or so.

[ayuud]

[Ginx snewx]

LOL that's why we love you.

I don't let no snow affect me personally, though. I've been there before. In the grand scheme of things it's really not that big of a deal... there's enough other stuff in life to not let it get to you that much.

Now that so so true, lots of people around here are really hurting this week with the tragedy in Griswold. Geez we have a tour group of high schoolers from Griswold here tomorrow, sad stuff, feel real bad for those families and friends. I can relate, snow or no snow NBFD.

[Typhoon Tip]

Anyone here will tell you I'm the most optimistic wx poster on the boards..always looking for how things will work out to our advantage..more snow..higher winds etc..it's what makes mea weenie...but in the face of overwhelming model and met support i just can't fake myself out in thinking this is nothing more than a warm rainstorm with a quick flip to snow on Monday. i do think we'll see an inch or 3 on monday as it changes over..but all in all it's rain whether it corrects east,west north or south ,..it doesn't matter..there's no cold high to lock in north drain. All we're looking at is a 38 degree rain vs a 55 degree rain

And yes if it doesn't snow i get very pissed off. It bothers me to no end..and you're damn straight it affects my mood. Anyone that says it doesn;t is lying. period. It's why we're all here.

Mood is one thing, but allowing that to affect you personally is different - and that is reflected in the loss of objectivity in this.

I'm not immune, Kevin - I'm not brain dead and I do sense a certain ...I don't know call it "cheer" when the runs align and cooperate such that there is limited grind. But when is THAT ever the case.

I am objective to the end with this stuff and maintain the disconnect. I don't sense that alot involved, do, is all - and it has a way of screwing them out of their own learning curve, as well as for the general public.

[Typhoon Tip]

LOL that's why we love you.

I don't let no snow affect me personally, though. I've been there before. In the grand scheme of things it's really not that big of a deal... there's enough other stuff in life to not let it get to you that much.

A - flappin' men!

[CoastalWx]

It's a good thing I wasn't on this board in '04/'05 before I had a steady job. I would have looked like Tim Robbins from Shawshank Redemption come April....like I just came out of 4 months of solitary confinement with a beard that rivals ZZ Top. I'd be in my room, on here 24/7..lol.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It's a good thing I wasn't on this board in '04/'05 before I had a steady job. I would have looked like Tim Robbins from Shawshank Redemption come April....like I just came out of 4 months of solitary confinement with a beard that rivals ZZ Top. I'd be in my room, on here 24/7..lol.

it's pretty bad. and there isn't even a legit event to really hone in on.

[Kbosch]

It bothers me not to have snow. I'll admit it. I've always liked it since I was a kid, and still have the feeling for when it snows. I do have other things now, so unlike my childhood and adolescent years...I don't live for it, but I'm bumming when it doesn't snow. It's 12/9 and it's not the date that botthers me, I just hate to waste a good pattern. I'm used to Decembers that don't produce, but this pattern had promise...or at least I thought. Lets see what happens in the next couple of weeks. Perhaps when the nao breaks down a little, and ridging develops out west...things change. The euro ensembles still like the 20th or so.

This is what I see out of most of you, especially the mets, and what I don't like about it. If it wasn't going to snow but we had 50s every day, fine. I'll take it. I dislike freezing outside for hours when the high is 31 with 15-20MPH N winds and we end up with no snow whatsoever. It gets old fast. The weather affects what I do every day so, like others, it gives me more of an investment in it. It's not life or death but it changes things.

[Typhoon Tip]

Look at it this way.. the problem D5-10 on the Euro is the NAO block sets up way too far south and ends up merging with the SE ridge. How likely is that honestly? Not very likely.

Last night's euro sort of did that but not nearly as much. The ensembles didn't really do it at all and keeps the NAO block in a classic spot over Baffin Bay. To have that on the Euro ensembles D7-10+ is pure gold. I don't care what the 12z op shows. The 12z GFS ensembles also had a well positioned block that keeps us plenty cool for snow in the LR. A good pattern continues through the 20th at least.. and eventually we will cash in.

Not very, no - The preferred retrograde motion is through central Canada at that latitude. But you know Skier', I think it quite obvious that the deterministic value of this model at that time range is about -11 on a scale of 0 to 10. Just go look at the last 5 cycles for D8-10 and see for your self how magnificently these larger scale mass-field domains get juggled all over the place.

Virtually ever seasonal hemispheric indicator there is save the Nina is -NAO enforcing. Toss it

[CT Rain]

It's a good thing I wasn't on this board in '04/'05 before I had a steady job. I would have looked like Tim Robbins from Shawshank Redemption come April....like I just came out of 4 months of solitary confinement with a beard that rivals ZZ Top. I'd be in my room, on here 24/7..lol.

lol

I was online a ton from like 96-01 for the wx stuff. 02-05 I wasn't on... end of high school and college was too fun for this stuff. I would go weeks without looking at a wx map in college haha.

Now that life has settled back down this is great... I love posting if the news is good or bad.

[Tropopause_Fold]

we're just going to have to "hope" that the southern end of this trough just digs and digs and digs to help us out early / middle next week.

[CoastalWx]

lol

I was online a ton from like 96-01 for the wx stuff. 02-05 I wasn't on... end of high school and college was too fun for this stuff. I would go weeks without looking at a wx map in college haha.

Now that life has settled back down this is great... I love posting if the news is good or bad.

I wished I joined earlier..I don't even know why I didn't...I used to just lurk from '06-'08. I just enjoy talking weather, and the friendly dialog on here.

[Ginx snewx]

lol

I was online a ton from like 96-01 for the wx stuff. 02-05 I wasn't on... end of high school and college was too fun for this stuff. I would go weeks without looking at a wx map in college haha.

Now that life has settled back down this is great... I love posting if the news is good or bad.

March 01 at WWBB was the worst meltdowns ever, Dec 03 best day, Historic SNE days at Eastern was Jan 05 and Dec 05 . With mobile tech now. I can still enjoy reading here while I am outside enjoying the weather, best of both worlds now.

[CT Rain]

I wished I joined earlier..I don't even know why I didn't...I used to just lurk from '06-'08. I just enjoy talking weather, and the friendly dialog on here.

I can't believe I've known some of the people here for 15 years... I wish all of you (well, most) have been along for the entire ride.

[Mr Torchey]

Now that so so true, lots of people around here are really hurting this week with the tragedy in Griswold. Geez we have a tour group of high schoolers from Griswold here tomorrow, sad stuff, feel real bad for those families and friends. I can relate, snow or no snow NBFD.

If the trends continue, this will be nothing more than a glorified frontal passage with a colder than normal advection period prior to passage. Let s hope the Euro is right with the retro, my wife came home yesterday and asked when it was going to snow? She could take it or leave it, but she pointed out that its pretty le mis being in the teens at night with a snowless landscape (right philly)!

[ORH_wxman]

March 01 at WWBB was the worst meltdowns ever, Dec 03 best day, Historic SNE days at Eastern was Jan 05 and Dec 05 . With mobile tech now. I can still enjoy reading here while I am outside enjoying the weather, best of both worlds now.

I was still on WWBB for January 2005...it was epic there too.

[Damage In Tolland]

At least we can take solice in the fact that Paris got 6-10 inches of snow yesterday

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well we have Tip against Ryan, Scooter and Phil..makes for good viewing anyway <BR><BR>Tip calling for icestorm and them calling for mild rains ,no wind , no snow and a frontal passage

It's retty clear that this is a rain event.

[CT Rain]

March 01 at WWBB was the worst meltdowns ever, Dec 03 best day, Historic SNE days at Eastern was Jan 05 and Dec 05 . With mobile tech now. I can still enjoy reading here while I am outside enjoying the weather, best of both worlds now.

I didn't even know WWBB was around in 01?

[CoastalWx]

The models really try to break down the Aleutian ridge too. Lets hope that isn't replaced by below normal heights.

[Tropopause_Fold]

The models really try to break down the Aleutian ridge too. Lets hope that isn't replaced by below normal heights.

if it's going to get replaced by negative heights...let's hope they are extreme so the downstream effect is warped.

[Zeus]

At least we can take solice in the fact that Paris got 6-10 inches of snow yesterday

We'll always have Paris.

[Mr Torchey]

End of the nam run features some serious downpours across eastern new england, it appears as though its trying to crank up a secondary down in the carolinas. Lets hope so.