I have an idea - let's start a new talking points thread

[Zeus]

i will be back in 8 days.

Total bluff.

I am the only person capable of leaving for extended periods of time.

[ChrisM]

There should be a ski/apres ski GTG sometime. That'd be hella fun

I would be VERY game on for that!

[MaineJayhawk]

I feel as though I've entered another dimension in here.

Will and the Mod Squad are going to have their hands full if things don't take a clear turn for the better. Bannings handed out like Halloween candy ... 5 post/day limits. Totalitarian rule.

[HoarfrostHubb]

There should be a ski/apres ski GTG sometime. That'd be hella fun

Especially with all the brown and gray woods all around the hill... very cheerful and festive

How much qpf (in whatever form) are we looking at Sun/Mon?

[OKpowdah]

i will be back in 8 days.

I might just take a break for a little bit too. Doesn't look exceptionally promising through the medium term

[CoastalWx]

Guys, some of the posts were in jest. Don't go handlebars yet, seriously. Yeah there is some concern after next week, but there are also some threats around. After that, things relax and the colder air comes back. We simply cannot tell if a storm will be a cutter or a miller b. I got my guard up, but hopeful something pans out during that time.

[ORH_wxman]

Especially with all the brown and gray woods all around the hill... very cheerful and festive

How much qpf (in whatever form) are we looking at Sun/Mon?

Yeah people better start making some posts with substance. I'll I'm reading is complaining.

[Typhoon Tip]

...WE PREFER A SOLUTION SHOWING THE MID LVL LOW CROSSING THE NE CONUS S OF THE THE GFS/GEFS MEAN. TELECONNECTIONS ON THE STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER GREENLAND ALSO FAVOR A MORE SUPPRESSED TRACK. THE 12Z ECMWF STARTS OUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK WITH THE

ERN SYS DAYS 3 BUT SLIPS VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE S OF THE 12Z MODEL

CLUSTER CONSENSUS DAYS 6 AND BEYOND.

I hugely echo NCEP's sentiments ... and, I offer the inclusion of the compressibility of the flow in the deep SE as also contributing - all this points S, not W -

I think a big part of the problem is horse blinders - people can't seem to see out side the box into the realm of WHAT DIRECTION are the runs most likely to correct - I have referred to this in the past as the correction vector - and instead focus on these snap shot runs.

Can I be wrong - hell yes! But comparing the content that has evolved of this thread versus convention science, wisdom and experience, is like the embarrassment the Jets withstood last Monday. Folks are making arses out of them selves to remain nameless.

Funny, I shouldn't even be on this site at the moment.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah people better start making some posts with substance. I'll I'm reading is complaining.

Any idea on qpf totals for SNE?

[Zeus]

...WE PREFER A SOLUTION SHOWING THE MID LVL LOW CROSSING THE NE CONUS S OF THE THE GFS/GEFS MEAN. TELECONNECTIONS ON THE STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER GREENLAND ALSO FAVOR A MORE SUPPRESSED TRACK. THE 12Z ECMWF STARTS OUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK WITH THE

ERN SYS DAYS 3 BUT SLIPS VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE S OF THE 12Z MODEL

CLUSTER CONSENSUS DAYS 6 AND BEYOND.

I hugely echo NCEP's sentiments ... and, I offer the inclusion of the compressibility of the flow in the deep SE as also contributing - all this points S, not W -

I think a big part of the problem is horse blinders - people can't seem to see out side the box into the realm of WHAT DIRECTION are the runs most likely to correct - I have referred to this in the past as the correction vector

Can I be wrong - hell yes! But comparing the content that has evolved of this thread with convention science, wisdom and experience, is like the embarrassment the Jets withstood last Monday. Fols are making arses out of them selves.

Funny, I shouldn't even be on this site at the moment.

Correction vector.

Now there's a handy term.

[Ginx snewx]

There should be a ski/apres ski GTG sometime.    That'd be hella fun

We are planning it for Berkshire East with Pro Lurker getting us elcheapo tics.

Keep seeing doubts about the Euros post frontal snows coming in off the Ocean, it is not really a retro but more as the ULL dives and heights crash there is a rapid expansion of LP off the East Coast, inflow develops and precip breaks out. The Euro has shown this for three days now, consistent. Of course Ryan says it's one run from disappearing, as Logan says he has fallen a long ways since his whining about no snow in Guilford when he was a teen. Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome.

[Damage In Tolland]

...WE PREFER A SOLUTION SHOWING THE MID LVL LOW CROSSING THE NE CONUS S OF THE THE GFS/GEFS MEAN. TELECONNECTIONS ON THE STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER GREENLAND ALSO FAVOR A MORE SUPPRESSED TRACK. THE 12Z ECMWF STARTS OUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK WITH THE

ERN SYS DAYS 3 BUT SLIPS VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE S OF THE 12Z MODEL

CLUSTER CONSENSUS DAYS 6 AND BEYOND.

I hugely echo NCEP's sentiments ... and, I offer the inclusion of the compressibility of the flow in the deep SE as also contributing - all this points S, not W -

I think a big part of the problem is horse blinders - people can't seem to see out side the box into the realm of WHAT DIRECTION are the runs most likely to correct - I have referred to this in the past as the correction vector - and instead focus on these snap shot runs.

Can I be wrong - hell yes! But comparing the content that has evolved of this thread versus convention science, wisdom and experience, is like the embarrassment the Jets withstood last Monday. Folks are making arses out of them selves to remain nameless.

Funny, I shouldn't even be on this site at the moment.

As much as we'd like you to be right..did you see this part?

THE HEAVIEST PCPN IS LIKELY TO FALL AS RAIN IN THE WARM MOIST

CONVEYOR BELT JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IN NEW ENG. BUT

RAPID COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CHANGE RA TO SN IN THE

CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE

AREAS....

[ski MRG]

It's been there for days if you've really looked. It's just been to our north while we stayed cold ensembles have this too.....Whenever you see Canada get warm..it means winter wx is over in the states till it can reload. Who knows when that will be. What an awful awful day to be winter wx lover

Another meltdown. So entertaining. Is this the second or third time you've cancelled Winter?

[Ginx snewx]

Guys, some of the posts were in jest. Don't go handlebars yet, seriously. Yeah there is some concern after next week, but there are also some threats around. After that, things relax and the colder air comes back. We simply cannot tell if a storm will be a cutter or a miller b. I got my guard up, but hopeful something pans out during that time.

If one reads the Euro correctly, there is brief ridge overhead with slightly above normal temps prior to a cold front passage. Canada is getting colder and reloading, a clipper is diving SE out of Canada. But that's an op ten day, really not all that unusual to have a two to three day relaxation. No huge SE ridge or torch sig on that run.

[Damage In Tolland]

Another meltdown. So entertaining. Is this the second or third time you've cancelled Winter?

Whoosh...right over your head

[CT Rain]

We are planning it for Berkshire East with Pro Lurker getting us elcheapo tics.

Keep seeing doubts about the Euros post frontal snows coming in off the Ocean, it is not really a retro but more as the ULL dives and heights crash there is a rapid expansion of LP off the East Coast, inflow develops and precip breaks out. The Euro has shown this for three days now, consistent. Of course Ryan says it's one run from disappearing, as Logan says he has fallen a long ways since his whining about no snow in Guilford when he was a teen. Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome.

lol... I've known Logan for almost 15 years along with some others on here (cweat and Jerry being some of them) and they all know I'm a snow lover at heart.

Look the next 7 days don't look that promising. I call it as I see it. We still have threats coming up after that so I'm not giving up.

I also think it's wrong to say that we haven't been screwed or that it's disappointing to see a -NAO get wasted by either being too strong, too far east or too strong east. Just because a post is negative doesn't mean it's not warranted or unreasonable.

[Tropopause_Fold]

...MID LVL LOW CROSSING THE NE CONUS.

[CoastalWx]

If one reads the Euro correctly, there is brief ridge overhead with slightly above normal temps prior to a cold front passage. Canada is getting colder and reloading, a clipper is diving SE out of Canada. But that's an op ten day, really not all that unusual to have a two to three day relaxation. No huge SE ridge or torch sig on that run.

You do not want the d10 op. It makes me want to vomit.

I'm just going to think back 5 years ago....that's better. Right about now, the atmosphere's rectum got torn a new one.

[CT Rain]

You do not want the d10 op. It makes me want to vomit.

I'm just going to think back 5 years ago....that's better. Right about now, the atmosphere's rectum got torn a new one.

Ugh... missed it

Was up in Albany for grad school driving down in the afternoon to work in Hartford.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah people better start making some posts with substance. I'll I'm reading is complaining.

i think we were just joking around a little bit after watching the euro fall to pieces beyond day 7.

[ORH_wxman]

lol... I've known Logan for almost 15 years along with some others on here (cweat being one of them) and they all know I'm a snow lover at heart.

Look the next 7 days don't look that promising. I call it as I see it. We still have threats coming up after that so I'm not giving up.

I also think it's wrong to say that we haven't been screwed or that it's disappointing to see a -NAO get wasted by either being too strong, too far east or too strong east. Just because a post is negative doesn't mean it's not warranted or unreasonable.

We definitely got the shaft a bit for this 7 day period starting this past weekend. We had a favorable long wave setup...it was just the perfect strength though to screw us...any further north or south by a tweak and we likely would have cashed in with at least an advisory event if not warning.

Its funny how this next storm is a lakes cutter when it looked like a real threat about 5-6 days ago...because before that 5 or 6 days ago timeframe, I remember discussing with Scott about how we might see a brief warmup after the 10th...in the 12-13th time range...that actually turned out to be correct via the lakes cutter/HV runner.

[CT Rain]

We definitely got the shaft a bit for this 7 day period starting this past weekend. We had a favorable long wave setup...it was just the perfect strength though to screw us...any further north or south by a tweak and we likely would have cashed in with at least an advisory event if not warning.

Its funny how this next storm is a lakes cutter when it looked like a real threat about 5-6 days ago...because before that 5 or 6 days ago timeframe, I remember discussing with Scott about how we might see a brief warmup after the 10th...in the 12-13th time range...that actually turned out to be correct via the lakes cutter/HV runner.

Yup. We've just been unlucky to be honest.

If I knew we'd have a -NAO so negative in December a month or two ago I would have been thrilled. Blah.

Still some threats beyond the 20th and the pattern doesn't look awful but it definitely shows some signs of how it could screw us again.

[Typhoon Tip]

As much as we'd like you to be right..did you see this part?

THE HEAVIEST PCPN IS LIKELY TO FALL AS RAIN IN THE WARM MOIST

CONVEYOR BELT JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IN NEW ENG. BUT

RAPID COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CHANGE RA TO SN IN THE

CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE

AREAS....

That doesn't matter Kevin - read carefully what I wrote. The point of what I wrote is understanding which direction this is most likely - or prone - to correct.

South is the answer.

Frankly, I think some of you allow this stuff to affect you on a personal level, and that is obtuse. I know of have kidded with you in the past in the spirit of comiseration, but gee wiz you're taking things too far with this palpable negativity. I think Scott isn't helping by egging you on - sure (haha) - but you really are coming across lately as seeing one thing and then having tunnel vision.

Look, it's up to you; you are letting disappointment cloud your judgement my young Jedi - I feel the anger inside. "Goooood. take your weapon, and strike me down, with all your anger, and your hatrid, and your journey to the dark side will be complete...."

Dude, barring an asteroid impact, the weather tomorrow or Monday or a 3 weeks from two years ago has no real bearing on your life.

[Typhoon Tip]

Correction vector.

Now there's a handy term.

Eh, I made it up; I admit it. what can you do? Couldn't think of a better way to describe.

[Zeus]

Eh, I made it up; I admit it. what can you do? Couldn't think of a better way to describe.

I was serious.

I think it'll come in handy many times this winter.

[Ginx snewx]

lol... I've known Logan for almost 15 years along with some others on here (cweat and Jerry being some of them) and they all know I'm a snow lover at heart.

Look the next 7 days don't look that promising. I call it as I see it. We still have threats coming up after that so I'm not giving up.

I also think it's wrong to say that we haven't been screwed or that it's disappointing to see a -NAO get wasted by either being too strong, too far east or too strong east. Just because a post is negative doesn't mean it's not warranted or unreasonable.

Guess you do not remember me, anyway you tout the Euro but fail to give any reason why it's consistent depiction of a moderate snow event is wrong.

[Damage In Tolland]

That doesn't matter Kevin - read carefully what I wrote. The point of what I wrote is understanding which direction this is most likely - or prone - to correct.

South is the answer.

Frankly, I think some of you allow this stuff to affect you on a personal level, and that is obtuse. I know of have kidded with you in the past in the spirit of comiseration, but gee wiz you're taking things too far with this palpable negativity. I think Scott isn't helping by egging you on - sure (haha) - but you really are coming across lately as seeing one thing and then having tunnel vision.

Look, it's up to you; you are letting disappointment cloud your judgement my young Jedi - I feel the anger inside. "Goooood. take your weapon, and strike me down, with all your anger, and your hatrid, and your journey to the dark side will be complete...."

Dude, barring an asteroid impact, the weather tomorrow or Monday or a 3 weeks from two years ago has no real bearing on your life.

Anyone here will tell you I'm the most optimistic wx poster on the boards..always looking for how things will work out to our advantage..more snow..higher winds etc..it's what makes mea weenie...but in the face of overwhelming model and met support i just can't fake myself out in thinking this is nothing more than a warm rainstorm with a quick flip to snow on Monday. i do think we'll see an inch or 3 on monday as it changes over..but all in all it's rain whether it corrects east,west north or south ,..it doesn't matter..there's no cold high to lock in north drain. All we're looking at is a 38 degree rain vs a 55 degree rain

And yes if it doesn't snow i get very pissed off. It bothers me to no end..and you're damn straight it affects my mood. Anyone that says it doesn;t is lying. period. It's why we're all here.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Anyone here will tell you I'm the most optimistic wx poster on the boards..always looking for how things will work out to our advantage..more snow..higher winds etc..it's what makes mea weenie...but in the face of overwhelming model and met support i just can't fake myself out in thinking this is nothing more than a warm rainstorm with a quick flip to snow on Monday. i do think we'll see an inch or 3 on monday as it changes over..but all in all it's rain whether it corrects east,west north or south ,..it doesn't matter..there's no cold high to lock in north drain. All we're looking at is a 38 degree rain vs a 55 degree rain

And yes if it doesn't snow i get very pissed off. It bothers me to no end..and you're damn straight it affects my mood. Anyone that says it doesn;t is lying. period. It's why we're all here.

agree.

[CT Rain]

Guess you do not remember me, anyway you tout the Euro but fail to give any reason why it's consistent depiction of a moderate snow event is wrong.

Because 9 times out of 10 I'm not going to believe a backdoor warm front delivering warning criteria snow to CT. Just doesn't happen that often.

I'm not saying the Euro is right in any of this. Many models don't depict the most favorable pattern in the next 10 days either.

How long have I known you for? Were you on IRC with all of us back in the day?

[CoastalWx]

Yup. We've just been unlucky to be honest.

If I knew we'd have a -NAO so negative in December a month or two ago I would have been thrilled. Blah.

Still some threats beyond the 20th and the pattern doesn't look awful but it definitely shows some signs of how it could screw us again.

That's a good way to sum it up. We just don't know, but I would tell folks to prepare for one crap storm (lets hope not) next weekend. It's not being negative..just calling it as it looks. At least we have chances, and that's all you can say.

The euro ensembles kind of like the idea of the storm the euro op had, but also drag marine garbage from the north, later next week.