dryslot Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Tank top, Shorts and an umbrella should do the trick monday........Hope nobodys hanging around for the euro...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Almost time for debbies to post downer Euro news..something like primary over BUF..no secondary...rain, fropa, no analfront snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 trough is going to go so negative...it'll probably bring back the retro scenario after the warm rainy breezy monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I remember when he was a teenager he (Ryan) was always crying about his lack of snow on the coast (Guildford I think?). I dunno what happened in the interim ...now he is a rain man. Almost time for debbies to post downer Euro news..something like primary over BUF..no secondary...rain, fropa, no analfront snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Clearly I am not on the same page as most. We'll see... But, this system - imho - is not being reviewed correclty in general. I have detailed why east solutions have plausibility that have not yet been atoned for in total and it's like I have been ignored. I will say this again, the models are having a diffculties resolving the west to east coordinate with this. The last 3 cycles of the Euro shows this with discontinuity shifting the placement of the primary for a reason; and also playing havoc with the timing of any 2ndary development. The heights down over the deep SE are very compressible, with a weak gradient and lower than normal balanced mlv wind velocities observable. With a low amplitude ridge out west this circumstance of the SE this means that the L/W wave length will by stretched ...or can be stretched anomalously long to some degree – that stretching seems to be problematic for the guidance, because there is limited s/w ridging out ahead of the amplitude in the OV to sharpen the trough-ridge interface of the west Atlantic. By the way, I have seen ageostrophic component in the 950mb persist despite what would look like a limited CAD presentation on the surface analysis. If triple point evolves and cuts SE of PVD-BOS, you'll drain folks. I am aware that the GFS is now weakening the system over all, but I think that may be a symptom of poorer data ingest over the eastern Pacific. And it is not true that data issues are a fallacy - to say so is in fact incorrect. Anyway, if the system comes off the Pacific weak, so be it - less impactive event naturally. If it comes in much stronger, than I have less issue with in situ lead s/w ridge genesis being greater, and a feedback into stem-winding it up the west side of the Apps resulting - with comparatively less coastalward development in that circumstances. That post of mine said "I still see" - meaning I just haven't seen anything yet that dissuades me from my perspective on the event - moreover, I believe we are still in the tale end of the "radio silence" during re-entry ...so to speak, and we should get better clarity beginning in 18 hours. Definitely not being ignored...at least not by like me. Thanks for the great input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 flash flood advisories? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Euro still has the same as 00z, maybe a bit faster. Primary goes to near CHI-DET and fizzles north of BUF, while secondary forms near DC and moves north into eastern PA. Euro should have stuck with that track from the 7th..lol In any case, still seems to start off as sn or mix across the interior(I'm not sure because my qpf maps are not updating)..maybe nrn orh country to Mike/Pete, but low tracks to a position nea Utica NY...actually moves nnw from the PA.NJ border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 As I recall we used to shoot spit balls a lot during study hall.... No laptops etc. to keep ourselves amused in the 80's. Now they just text each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 0c 850 isotherm almost kissing MIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The Euro is ugly. Stick a fork in this event (again) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Euro still has the same as 00z, maybe a bit faster. Primary goes to near CHI-DET and fizzles north of BUF, while secondary forms near DC and moves north into eastern PA. Euro should have stuck with that track from the 7th..lol In any case, still seems to start off as sn or mix across the interior(I'm not sure because my qpf maps are not updating)..maybe nrn orh country to Mike/Pete, but low tracks to a position nea Utica NY...actually moves nnw from the PA.NJ border. doesn't look like it...hvy hvy waa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Geezus, There goes NW Maines snowpack............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Almost time for debbies to post downer Euro news..something like primary over BUF..no secondary...rain, fropa, no analfront snow The Euro is ugly. Stick a fork in this event (again) How many forks is that now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 doesn't look like it...hvy hvy waa I just guessed...not sure why maps aren't updating....that's awful then. It looked like a litte CAD signature, but we have a rotting airmass in place already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Tip- Great points. I for one am strongly in your corner. I believe no model is handling this system well. Not until we start to get itno the t-60 hour time frame and some of the high res gridded models become reasonable will we have a sense of what's going to happen. It's really counter-productive to throw in towels at any point before then. I threw in my towel on Tuesday, and it remains thrown in This storm will have no problem digging tremendously quickly, and tilting negative before reaching the Ohio Valley, driving low pressure to our west, and initiating a devilish southerly LLJ. There is zero UL confluence to our north and consequently no relatively high SLP, and therefore zero mechanism to slow or deform the southerly jet and keep cold air locked in place. The cold airmass will already be spoiled by the weak clipper swinging through Friday night. What about a front end dump? No deal. Without cold high pressure to our north, the meridional temperature gradient over the region ahead of the storm will be weak, and therefore little mechanism for lift on the front end before we get flooded with warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 trough is going to go so negative...it'll probably bring back the retro scenario after the warm rainy breezy monday Doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I threw in my towel on Tuesday, and it remains thrown in This storm will have no problem digging tremendously quickly, and tilting negative before reaching the Ohio Valley, driving low pressure to our west, and initiating a devilish southerly LLJ. There is zero UL confluence to our north and consequently no relatively high SLP, and therefore zero mechanism to slow or deform the southerly jet and keep cold air locked in place. The cold airmass will already be spoiled by the weak clipper swinging through Friday night. What about a front end dump? No deal. Without cold high pressure to our north, the meridional temperature gradient over the region ahead of the storm will be weak, and therefore little mechanism for lift on the front end before we get flooded with warm air. this stuff up here ^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Euro almost stalls the front to the east of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It's nice to see the 12z GFS is close to another Lakes Cutter by 12/19-12/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Let's see how many negative posts Ryan can get out over the next 20 minutes based on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Euro almost stalls the front to the east of BOS. yeah it's starts to develop LP on it too...looks like a retrograde? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 this stuff up here ^^^^ Yeah I mentioned earlier, it would help if we had a fresh cold airmass...even if the high was in a sh*tty position. Without that, you really can't get the CAD signature for good ice. There will probably be some mix at Pete and Mike's, but it could be very brief if the euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 yeah it's starts to develop LP on it too...looks like a retrograde? Doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Doubtful Your way ahead of Ryan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah I mentioned earlier, it would help if we had a fresh cold airmass...even if the high was in a sh*tty position. Without that, you really can't get the CAD signature for good ice. There will probably be some mix at Pete and Mike's, but it could be very brief if the euro is right. yeah having the waa with the "clipper" tomorrow night/sat am really hurts those chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 yeah having the waa with the "clipper" tomorrow night/sat am really hurts those chances. Phil does the "clipper" put any measurable down anywhere in sne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 As we thought UKIE leading way in verification scores Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 As we thought UKIE leading way in verification scores as we thought...look closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The models overall have been too far to the southeast when you are 7-10 days out. It makes me wonder about the next set of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 as we thought...look closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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