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I have an idea - let's start a new talking points thread


Typhoon Tip

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Nasty dunk.almost as nasty as Shabazz inbounds pass off FDU players back to himself for the layup

I think we'll all see some backend snow

I walked by at halftime fistpumping in your direction and the guy sitting next to you with the hat on looked but I think you were crying happy tears at the time at the uconn football ceremony

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Anyone care to fully define anafront and fropa?

ANAFRONT means precip occurring behind the actual front...in this case, the cold front. This happens because the warmer mid levels are actually overrunning the colder air below, so you get anafrontal precip. This usually occurs when the H5 low begins to deepen or dig sharply.

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The gfs op is pretty warm even for you. Lets see what the euro has, it did have a bit of snow and ice for you.

Yeah--it was really ugly. Not what I wanted to see at all. Based on Andy's comment, the cold on the UK is north of here as well come Sunday morning, unless I misread his post.

Still 18.3/4. Just got in from a walk. Not too bad with a hat, gloves and parka. Stream freezing is picking up steam with the sustained cold.

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It does look interesting down the road. It's not perfect, but there are some signs that storms want to approach with the block actually hanging around. The cold will be modest, but hopefully enough. Only problem is that situation I brought up earlier of any PV trying to phase with a s/w in the Midwest, but that cannot be a concern at this time. Just be happy we may have more chances. That's all you can say.

We can't take any more chances that head inland. No Mas!!!

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Clearly I am not on the same page as most. We'll see... But, this system - imho - is not being reviewed correclty in general.

I have detailed why east solutions have plausibility that have not yet been atoned for in total and it's like I have been ignored.

I will say this again, the models are having a diffculties resolving the west to east coordinate with this. The last 3 cycles of the Euro shows this with discontinuity shifting the placement of the primary for a reason; and also playing havoc with the timing of any 2ndary development.

The heights down over the deep SE are very compressible, with a weak gradient and lower than normal balanced mlv wind velocities observable. With a low amplitude ridge out west this circumstance of the SE this means that the L/W wave length will by stretched ...or can be stretched anomalously long to some degree – that stretching seems to be problematic for the guidance, because there is limited s/w ridging out ahead of the amplitude in the OV to sharpen the trough-ridge interface of the west Atlantic.

By the way, I have seen ageostrophic component in the 950mb persist despite what would look like a limited CAD presentation on the surface analysis. If triple point evolves and cuts SE of PVD-BOS, you'll drain folks.

I am aware that the GFS is now weakening the system over all, but I think that may be a symptom of poorer data ingest over the eastern Pacific. And it is not true that data issues are a fallacy - to say so is in fact incorrect. Anyway, if the system comes off the Pacific weak, so be it - less impactive event naturally. If it comes in much stronger, than I have less issue with in situ lead s/w ridge genesis being greater, and a feedback into stem-winding it up the west side of the Apps resulting - with comparatively less coastalward development in that circumstances.

That post of mine said "I still see" - meaning I just haven't seen anything yet that dissuades me from my perspective on the event - moreover, I believe we are still in the tale end of the "radio silence" during re-entry ...so to speak, and we should get better clarity beginning in 18 hours.

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Hey Mike, I love how some of the weenies are crying because the GFS is forecasting a ho-hum event. Since when did the SNE thread and some of its posters become GFS huggers? :arrowhead::axe:

I don't think we're being huggers,Andy. We're celebrating whatever good elements we can salvage from any guidance and lamenting (and tyring to ignore) the rest.

In other words, we're wishcasting. :):snowman:

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Clearly I am not on the same page as most. We'll see... But, this system - imho - is not being reviewed correclty in general.

I have detailed why east solutions have plausibility that have not yet been atoned for in total and it's like I have been ignored.

I will say this again, the models are having a diffculties resolving the west to east coordinate with this. The last 3 cycles of the Euro shows this with discontinuity shifting the placement of the primary for a reason; and also playing havoc with the timing of any 2ndary development.

The heights down over the deep SE are very compressible, with a weak gradient and lower than normal balanced mlv wind velocities observable. With a low amplitude ridge out west this circumstance of the SE this means that the L/W wave length will by stretched ...or can be stretched anomalously long to some degree – that stretching seems to be problematic for the guidance, because there is limited s/w ridging out ahead of the amplitude in the OV to sharpen the trough-ridge interface of the west Atlantic.

By the way, I have seen ageostrophic component in the 950mb persist despite what would look like a limited CAD presentation on the surface analysis. If triple point evolves and cuts SE of PVD-BOS, you'll drain folks.

I am aware that the GFS is now weakening the system over all, but I think that may be a symptom of poorer data ingest over the eastern Pacific. And it is not true that data issues are a fallacy - to say so is in fact incorrect. Anyway, if the system comes off the Pacific weak, so be it - less impactive event naturally. If it comes in much stronger, than I have less issue with in situ lead s/w ridge genesis being greater, and a feedback into stem-winding it up the west side of the Apps resulting - with comparatively less coastalward development in that circumstances.

That post of mine said "I still see" - meaning I just haven't seen anything yet that dissuades me from my perspective on the event - moreover, I believe we are still in the tale end of the "radio silence" during re-entry ...so to speak, and we should get better clarity beginning in 18 hours.

Tip- Great points.

I for one am strongly in your corner. I believe no model is handling this system well. Not until we start to get itno the t-60 hour time frame and some of the high res gridded models become reasonable will we have a sense of what's going to happen. It's really counter-productive to throw in towels at any point before then.

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Geez, I'm in school... what if a student sees this

Don't you have some payroll products to sell?

Icing Monday?

Blizz, you're in sales?

I'm a rep for Mount Snow...I sell college passes for them and some kid thought I "wasn't legit" so I was like "call Mount Snow and ask them about me to make sure that I'm a rep if you're apprehensive". Well the idiot probably 20something girl he talked to said they have no clue who I am and are going to report me to their supervisor. LOL. I've been a rep for them for three years.

Sales are frustrating.

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Clearly I am not on the same page as most. We'll see... But, this system - imho - is not being reviewed correclty in general.

I have detailed why east solutions have plausibility that have not yet been atoned for in total and it's like I have been ignored.

I will say this again, the models are having a diffculties resolving the west to east coordinate with this. The last 3 cycles of the Euro shows this with discontinuity shifting the placement of the primary for a reason; and also playing havoc with the timing of any 2ndary development.

The heights down over the deep SE are very compressible, with a weak gradient and lower than normal balanced mlv wind velocities observable. With a low amplitude ridge out west this circumstance of the SE this means that the L/W wave length will by stretched ...or can be stretched anomalously long to some degree – that stretching seems to be problematic for the guidance, because there is limited s/w ridging out ahead of the amplitude in the OV to sharpen the trough-ridge interface of the west Atlantic.

By the way, I have seen ageostrophic component in the 950mb persist despite what would look like a limited CAD presentation on the surface analysis. If triple point evolves and cuts SE of PVD-BOS, you'll drain folks.

I am aware that the GFS is now weakening the system over all, but I think that may be a symptom of poorer data ingest over the eastern Pacific. And it is not true that data issues are a fallacy - to say so is in fact incorrect. Anyway, if the system comes off the Pacific weak, so be it - less impactive event naturally. If it comes in much stronger, than I have less issue with in situ lead s/w ridge genesis being greater, and a feedback into stem-winding it up the west side of the Apps resulting - with comparatively less coastalward development in that circumstances.

That post of mine said "I still see" - meaning I just haven't seen anything yet that dissuades me from my perspective on the event - moreover, I believe we are still in the tale end of the "radio silence" during re-entry ...so to speak, and we should get better clarity beginning in 18 hours.

And according to HPC this morningg (I feel like a broken record), the block is over Greenland not an east based block. Would this not argue for s and e displacement?

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