Logan11 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The new GFS at 78 hours seems to have a secondary trying to go in NJ. Then at 84 hours one deepening low on Montreal. I'm perplexed as to whether the secondary takes over OR it just loses that secondary and bombs the primary low as it traverses from about BUF to YUL. We obviously need that secondary to take over and preferably track a little east of the NY/MA border...so still in the game here for backside snow. LOL, the new GFS sucks for all weather lovers, winds are crappy too, basically a rainy breezy day with clearing skies and scattered flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 GFS is damn cold next week... and thankfully not a horrible torch for ski areas up north. They should make out ok afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 There has been nearly 30 new pages added to this thread since I last posted or viewed, so apologies to anyone who may have already mentioned the following: 1) This event (minus any nuance system over the weekend) still looks to me to be a primary over, tripple point under type scenario N of the M/A, and E of 80W . ... Risk assessing.. P-Type: In that region above (New England and tailoring frozen to liquid from W-E) I am visualizing a snow transition to mix, then icing, with an eventual transition to rain SE of a BOS-PVD line, and flashing late for them. Wind: This event has a lot. It all completes with an abrupt wind shift west, powerful gust potential ensues with extreme rapidity. There could be problematic icing with over 1/2" accretion leading, which then enters a real concern about power infrastructure in wind. This event is negatively tilted(ing) enroute to closure and during that 6-12 hour period there appears to be a tropospheric fold signal as the main jet axis accelerates up along the tripple point translating the right to left entrance regions of the jet core axis straight over head. I'd take that seriously folks. I am really quite concerned about a wind event on the south side of the occluded boundary - may see a g-wave translation associated. There will be wind with short duration extreme pressure falls and rises anyway, but combining fold physics over a glazed icing event would be dangerous to say the least. Definitely should monitor this potential in coming model cycles. I am seeing a better front side PP situated N of the area, so a primary west and tipple point under is quite acceptible in having some additional boundary layer resistence established. Warm conveyor elevates over weak damming and significantly inverts the sounding and eradicates the snow growth region of the sounding at some point for everyone, delayed across the distant interior and western NE where more sleet could take place. Suspect a substantial band of ice storm warning critera verifies if this type of cyclone translation outlook succeeds. This would take place from near White Plains NY to the I-495 region of interior SNE - possibly closer to I-95. A jump to 35F rain SE of that axis and above the occlusion. 2) 2nd major system now detectable in guidance though coherence is limited. Target time between the 20th and 25th of the month. Teleconnector spread favors with on-going -NAO and now enters a multi-agency PNA rise into positive during that time span giving rise to teleconnector convergence for bottoming out the geopotential medium in the OV/MA/NE regions. Timing a S/W in this overall active pattern will not likely be problematic... This latter system will not likely be as front-side cold challenged, either. Stay tuned. This is the most optimistic comment from a met (in a wintry type of optimism) that I have ever read about this event. The second most optimistic was Andy's prior one. My hope springs eternal. 18.0/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 GFS is damn cold next week... and thankfully not a horrible torch for ski areas up north. They should make out ok afterall. Who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 This is the most optimistic comment from a met (in a wintry type of optimism) that I have ever read about this event. The second most optimistic was Andy's prior one. My hope springs eternal. 18.0/3 The euro gives you front end snow as well. That hasn't changed...the interior should start as wintry precip...snow and/or ice. Question is, what happens after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 D10 GFS FTW?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 LOL, it's 12/9. C'mon. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTgc7JQVE_E C'mon Man! Looks like it will be a good weekend to head for the Charles and get a nice long run in, by that i mean 5 miles slowly but surely on the way back. But all kidding aside this has been an impressive strech of cold obviously wasted, but still impressive stuff for early December IMO. Not worth bridge jumping or anything at this point, I think its gona shake our way eventually, but what the heck do I konw! Hopefully I won't have to dodge to many frisbees during my run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Ingesting UK 12z run now. See what it has going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 LOL, the new GFS sucks for all weather lovers, winds are crappy too, basically a rainy breezy day with clearing skies and scattered flurries. Talking about winter in general, not this storm specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 D10 GFS FTW?? day 10 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Loop the GFS op, and you will see how blocking is supposed to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 D10 GFS FTW?? Oh nice, Thats like 5 storms in a row that show up at day 10, I should have a 40" snowpack by now......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Ingesting UK 12z run now. See what it has going on. Probably west of you...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The euro gives you front end snow as well. That hasn't changed...the interior should start as wintry precip...snow and/or ice. Question is, what happens after. And therein lies the rub. Wonder if I'll break 20* today. Spiked to 18.3/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Well at least the cold air will return post storm. Gotta love that TWC actualy showed the gfs and euro last night made things easy for a novice like me. One has gotta hope with the next blast of cold air we could a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Really no change on UK through 72 hours. Its also a bit faster on the arctic front. By Sun morning this boundary is from like N'rn OH ENE across the 'Dacks of NYS to N-Cntl NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 God, Ekster is more of a snow curse than I could have ever imagined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 And therein lies the rub. Wonder if I'll break 20* today. Spiked to 18.3/3 The gfs op is pretty warm even for you. Lets see what the euro has, it did have a bit of snow and ice for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 God, Ekster is more of a snow curse than I could have ever imagined. The new snowhole of New England - Southern Maine Thanks Mike! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Oh nice, Thats like 5 storms in a row that show up at day 10, I should have a 40" snowpack by now......lol You could live with Ray at H5... perpetual blizzard there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 It does look interesting down the road. It's not perfect, but there are some signs that storms want to approach with the block actually hanging around. The cold will be modest, but hopefully enough. Only problem is that situation I brought up earlier of any PV trying to phase with a s/w in the Midwest, but that cannot be a concern at this time. Just be happy we may have more chances. That's all you can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Maybe this will be our inevitable sub-20" winter December that we are due...can't remember, what did BOS finish with last year? Whoopsie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Oh nice, Thats like 5 storms in a row that show up at day 10, I should have a 40" snowpack by now......lol There's a cold H to the north there. That's the only feature I care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Well we have Tip against Ryan, Scooter and Phil..makes for good viewing anyway <BR><BR>Tip calling for icestorm and them calling for mild rains ,no wind , no snow and a frontal passage LOL...clown. antecedent air mass doesn't really scream icestorm to me personally but obviuosly it's december so hard to rule out some frozen precip at the onset for some folks. as for no wind, i think i've posted about the wind potential like 10 times. that said, that part of the equation might not be quite so dramatic if we continue to see this come in weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 They'll be some wind and rain, I really haven't looked at wind, but in the warm and cold air advection..yeah looks like some strong winds for some. How strong, depends on the evolution of the low. I don't really see much icing except for the pedophile hiding glens of West Chesterfield, and even there it might not be bad. If we had a nice cold airmass in place with a good high to the north, then yeah...icing city. Instead we have a garbage airmass in place with rotting cold and no good, cold, high pressure. The one thing saving the far interior is night time cooling. I think there will be icing in the distant west, but as if now..doesn't seem like a big deal for many. Dude, WTF? Don't project your proclivities on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 This is the most optimistic comment from a met (in a wintry type of optimism) that I have ever read about this event. The second most optimistic was Andy's prior one. My hope springs eternal. 18.0/3 Hey Mike, I love how some of the weenies are crying because the GFS is forecasting a ho-hum event. Since when did the SNE thread and some of its posters become GFS huggers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 God, Ekster is more of a snow curse than I could have ever imagined. He moved out of my town but still yielding same results. Must have left a nice pile of subsidence in his wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Dude, WTF? Don't project your proclivities on me. this your backyard right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Not bad??? 12Z GFS repeats the anafront situation with a Lakes Cutter that doesn't ever fully jump to the coast (like 6Z). But, for the MA it bumps up the precip totals behind the front with a bullseye in central-eastern PA. NAM seems to hint at a similar solution, but has the storm considerably slower, so the storm is still in Michigan at 84hr. At 84hr on the NAM, the 0C 850 line looks just east of a State College-DC line. Both models show rain up to nearly the Canadian border in NY/New England though with this cutter. But then everyone gets at least some post-frontal snows, with increasing amounts the farther north you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Not bad??? eh those things underperform around here a lot of times. how'd you like Lamb's giant dunk last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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