I have an idea - let's start a new talking points thread

[CT Rain]

Winter will not end in Feb this year......remember I said that.

Yeah it probably begins in late Feb

[40/70 Benchmark]

If the euro's right it might end Dec 21st

It may very well be a wretched winter until March, but....

[CT Rain]

GFS is west of Chicago with the primary

[Damage In Tolland]

i don't care what anyone says..if Canada is as warm as the Euro has it..we are not going to be wintry in SNE. You flood Canada with mild air..we're fooked

[Wx4cast]

Maybe this idea of driving the initial primary to the lakes in winning... 6Z GFS has it quite far northwest.....then has the secondary development the cutting up through western NE.

So yeah we could see low pressure way west, but the ultimate low into NE or the HV.

NAM is of course ugly because it floods us with warmth. Gotta try to score either front end or back end....

Well the primary was always going to the Lakes..it's always been when and where does the 2ndary and how strong is the secondary gonna be? It's rain for a good part for everyone to the Candadian border...but can we flip everyone over to accumulating snow is the question. As of now that only happens for areas from ORH west...hopefully we can get that to the coast

Okay here is a tid-bit to keep in mind. The OP models are still somewhat diverse on the surface LP placement and track for the end of the weekend and beginning of next week storm BUT they are consistent on the track of the 700 hPa LP system. The CONSISTENCY that most dare I say ALL of the models have on this feature is consistent from model to model and from one model run to the next (yeah I know you can't say this as it relates to the EC and UK, for the latter beyond 72 hours forecast time).

A general rule when this 700 hPa feature tracks along or south of a CHI-YUL (Chicago-Montreal) line a secondary storm will form along the coast. Where the secondary forms is determined by the degree of cold air damming that occurs along the coastal plain. Of note too is that the EC and GFS and anomaly data are showing the greatest anomalous hights associated with the Southern-stream short wave. This is the short that the UK has been concentrating on and now the other primary models are as well.

Looking at forecast data at the tropopause level it looks like the secondary will start to intensify over central NC during Sunday AM and probably track NNE from there to along the NYS/WNE border by Monday morning with rapid deepening. There is a chance that it could track a bit farther east bisecting LI and running along or a bit east of the Ct River Valley; still too early to be totally confident on the track at this point in time.

Since the 700 feature looks to track south of the CHI-YUL line confidence IS rather high with the 2ndary development occurring to the SE of the h700 low over the SEUS. This development should shift the colder air more east and south across a good portion of PA (central points on west) and across most of NYS, save for the SE parts north to the mid-Hudson Valley (Hudson/Poughkeepsie). However these areas of SENY could change over to snow on the tail of the storm pending on both the location of the dry slot and the deformation zone on the back side of the storm and both of these features are directly tied to the track of the secondary LP.

The forecast central height of the 700 hPa feature is also critical, too. If it is is < 3000 meters the probability for for snow beneath it and off to the west through north of the track of it greatly increases.

[Kbosch]

Winter will not end in Feb this year......remember I said that.

OK, remembered. I sure hope you're right and we cash in eventually. Maybe our problem just is 2010 itself.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS is west of Chicago with the primary

I honestly couldn't care less at this point.....it maybe better for the ski areas if it goes that far west....less rain and a weaker LLJ propelling north.

Dec 16, 2007 was like that with regard to the strongest surge of warmth going west.....even before considering the 2ndary.

[40/70 Benchmark]

OK, remembered. I sure hope you're right and we cash in eventually. Maybe our problem just is 2010 itself.

Now you're talking.

[CoastalWx]

GFS is west of Chicago with the primary

Remember where it had it 24 hrs ago? Maybe it will have a whacked out solution like the 12z euro had.

[Damage In Tolland]

Now I'm stroking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm resigning myself to not much snow over the course of the next 2 mths......should salvage sanity.

[CT Rain]

Remember where it had it 24 hrs ago? Maybe it will have a whacked out solution like the 12z euro had.

lol i know

DSM/MSP are going to get a pseudo-surprise snowstorm out of this

[40/70 Benchmark]

To this....nah.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This event was destined to blow for everyone.....shouldn't be any angst.

[CT Rain]

If I lived i ROC or SYR I'd be a lot more pissed off than being in SNE.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like it warms again....whaddya know.

[CoastalWx]

Rain and fropa.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Looks like it warms again....whaddya know.

primary over detroit and toronto.

[NorEastermass128]

I'm resigning myself to not much snow over the course of the next 2 mths......should salvage sanity.

Maybe this will be our inevitable sub-20" winter that we are due...can't remember, what did BOS finish with last year?

[Tropopause_Fold]

Maybe this will be our inevitable sub-20" winter that we are due...can't remember, what did BOS finish with last year?

dude...it's 12/9.

[CoastalWx]

Maybe this will be our inevitable sub-20" winter that we are due...can't remember, what did BOS finish with last year?

LOL, it's 12/9. C'mon.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Maybe this will be our inevitable sub-20" winter that we are due...can't remember, what did BOS finish with last year?

When was the last sub 20" in Boston metro??

Hard to imagine that happening this year with such a volatile pattern.

[Typhoon Tip]

There has been nearly 30 new pages added to this thread since I last posted or viewed, so apologies to anyone who may have already mentioned the following:

1) This event (minus any nuance system over the weekend) still looks to me to be a primary over, tripple point under type scenario N of the M/A, and E of 80W . ...

Risk assessing..

P-Type: In that region above (New England and tailoring frozen to liquid from W-E) I am visualizing a snow transition to mix, then icing, with an eventual transition to rain SE of a BOS-PVD line, and flashing late for them.

Wind: This event has a lot. It all completes with an abrupt wind shift west, powerful gust potential ensues with extreme rapidity. There could be problematic icing with over 1/2" accretion leading, which then enters a real concern about power infrastructure in wind. This event is negatively tilted(ing) enroute to closure and during that 6-12 hour period there appears to be a tropospheric fold signal as the main jet axis accelerates up along the tripple point translating the right to left entrance regions of the jet core axis straight over head. I'd take that seriously folks. I am really quite concerned about a wind event on the south side of the occluded boundary - may see a g-wave translation associated. There will be wind with short duration extreme pressure falls and rises anyway, but combining fold physics over a glazed icing event would be dangerous to say the least. Definitely should monitor this potential in coming model cycles.

I am seeing a better front side PP situated N of the area, so a primary west and tipple point under is quite acceptible in having some additional boundary layer resistence established. Warm conveyor elevates over weak damming and significantly inverts the sounding and eradicates the snow growth region of the sounding at some point for everyone, delayed across the distant interior and western NE where more sleet could take place. Suspect a substantial band of ice storm warning critera verifies if this type of cyclone translation outlook succeeds. This would take place from near White Plains NY to the I-495 region of interior SNE - possibly closer to I-95. A jump to 35F rain SE of that axis and above the occlusion.

2) 2nd major system now detectable in guidance though coherence is limited. Target time between the 20th and 25th of the month. Teleconnector spread favors with on-going -NAO and now enters a multi-agency PNA rise into positive during that time span giving rise to teleconnector convergence for bottoming out the geopotential medium in the OV/MA/NE regions. Timing a S/W in this overall active pattern will not likely be problematic... This latter system will not likely be as front-side cold challenged, either. Stay tuned.

[MaineJayhawk]

No surprise the cliff divers are out in force.

[Ginx snewx]

No surprise the cliff divers are out in force.

LOL, the new GFS sucks for all weather lovers, winds are crappy too, basically a rainy breezy day with clearing skies and scattered flurries.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well we have Tip against Ryan, Scooter and Phil..makes for good viewing anyway <BR><BR>Tip calling for icestorm and them calling for mild rains ,no wind , no snow and a frontal passage

[TalcottWx]

The emotional investment manifests some crazy comments. Jays model IMBY is not the same model for us coastal dwellers.

Reality sucks in this hobby. To each his or her own.

I'm still not totally convinced. Tis the first threat with mucho time in season, with that there is solace.

Don, Good chance I'm gone Weds from Bridgton for the winter.. probably a midyear transfer... Looks like my time in Bridgton will amount to 1".

Btw, I was screwing with Ray, as I told him via PM. My frustration might be alot more then his soon if I go to a place like UDelaware or Bowling Green.

[Damage In Tolland]

There has been nearly 30 new pages added to this thread since I last posted or viewed, so apologies to anyone who may have already mentioned the following:

1) This event (minus any nuance system over the weekend) still looks to me to be a primary over, tripple point under type scenario N of the M/A, and E of 80W . ...

Risk assessing..

P-Type: In that region above (New England and tailoring frozen to liquid from W-E) I am visualizing a snow transition to mix, then icing, with an eventual transition to rain SE of a BOS-PVD line, and flashing late for them.

Wind: This event has a lot. It all completes with an abrupt wind shift west, powerful gust potential ensues with extreme rapidity. There could be problematic icing with over 1/2" accretion leading, which then enters a real concern about power infrastructure in wind. This event is negatively tilted(ing) enroute to closure and during that 6-12 hour period there appears to be a tropospheric fold signal as the main jet axis accelerates up along the tripple point translating the right to left entrance regions of the jet core axis straight over head. I'd take that seriously folks. I am really quite concerned about a wind event on the south side of the occluded boundary - may see a g-wave translation associated. There will be wind with short duration extreme pressure falls and rises anyway, but combining fold physics over a glazed icing event would be dangerous to say the least. Definitely should monitor this potential in coming model cycles.

I am seeing a better front side PP situated N of the area, so a primary west and tipple point under is quite acceptible in having some additional boundary layer resistence established. Warm conveyor elevates over weak damming and significantly inverts the sounding and eradicates the snow growth region of the sounding at some point for everyone, delayed across the distant interior and western NE where more sleet could take place. Suspect a substantial band of ice storm warning critera verifies if this type of cyclone translation outlook succeeds. This would take place from near White Plains NY to the I-495 region of interior SNE - possibly closer to I-95. A jump to 35F rain SE of that axis and above the occlusion.

2) 2nd major system now detectable in guidance though coherence is limited. Target time between the 20th and 25th of the month. Teleconnector spread favors with on-going -NAO and now enters a multi-agency PNA rise into positive during that time span giving rise to teleconnector convergence for bottoming out the geopotential medium in the OV/MA/NE regions. Timing a S/W in this overall active pattern will not likely be problematic... This latter system will not likely be as front-side cold challenged, either. Stay tuned.

Are you bonged out?

[CoastalWx]

Well we have Tip against Ryan, Scooter and Phil..makes for good viewing anyway <BR><BR>Tip calling for icestorm and them calling for mild rains ,no wind , no snow and a frontal passage

They'll be some wind and rain, I really haven't looked at wind, but in the warm and cold air advection..yeah looks like some strong winds for some. How strong, depends on the evolution of the low.

I don't really see much icing except for the pedophile hiding glens of West Chesterfield, and even there it might not be bad. If we had a nice cold airmass in place with a good high to the north, then yeah...icing city. Instead we have a garbage airmass in place with rotting cold and no good, cold, high pressure. The one thing saving the far interior is night time cooling. I think there will be icing in the distant west, but as if now..doesn't seem like a big deal for many.

[dryslot]

Warm and rain, Then cold and dry......nice