COPO Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Damn cold here this morning. 11.2 IMBY. BOX has us at 80% chance of freezing rain Sunday night. Should be a real fun drive to work Monday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Then there are the Canadian ensembles who give hope to those west of ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 not in my mind....I don't see how a low over Chicago or Detroit is an HV runner...we've seen those solutions from the Euro a few times. If you are speaking from a snow perspective....the Euro was always west...so sure it looks best on the rain vs. snow question..but I'm not sure objective model statistics will paint the Euro has the clear cut winner. 100% agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I think a Hudson Valley runner is the most likely track. Any chances for backlash snows here in the elevated northern suburbs of NYC metro, Will, if it bombs at like 975mb near ALB? I agree....I said yesterday that I was pretty confident in a track btwn W MA and Watertown, NY; let this go, folks. 16.4\9 BRRRRR..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Then there are the Canadian ensembles who give hope to those west of ORH. I've always loved the Canadian model. I think the East trend continues and we get snow. Surprised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Damn cold here this morning. 11.2 IMBY. BOX has us at 80% chance of freezing rain Sunday night. Should be a real fun drive to work Monday morning... Yeah, tough to see my forecast from Box is 33F and rain for sunday night. I think I'll take rain over icing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I've always loved the Canadian model. I think the East trend continues and we get snow. Surprised? Did you get up north this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Pot>Kettle>black Funny, I'd rather see the CP get rainstorm after rainstorm while the snow piles up out here. Fortunately for me, any wintry appeal for you wil be trivial. Enjoy the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The Euro has stayed consistent on the inside runner idea since Dec 3rd, these animated gifs show that, they are 0Z runs since Dec 3rd for the Mon the 13th 0Z time frame, 5h and 8h. click to animate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Fortunately for me, any wintry appeal for you wil be trivial. Enjoy the rain. Karma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 If you take out the calculator and compute verification scores, maybe another model will score better than the EURO, but the bottom line is that I knew this event was skunked on Saturday when it went west......did it still waffle around, sure, but it grabbed ahold of the notion that this woudn't be an event of any consequence for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Karma. Yea, I'm really worried about messing up my string of karma......wouldn't want to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The Euro has stayed consistent on the inside runner idea since Dec 3rd, these animated gifs show that, they are 0Z runs since Dec 3rd for the Mon the 13th 0Z time frame, 5h and 8h. click to animate Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 If you take out the calculator and compute verification scores, maybe another model will score better than the EURO, but the bottom line is that I knew this event was skunked on Saturday when it went West......did it still waffle around, sure, but it grabbed ahold of the notion that this woudn't be an event of consequence for us. For us this is correct....but would someone in Chicago, detroit, and indy feel the same? The same diff in the models for costal make a big diff for them in a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 For us this is correct....but would someone in Chicago, detroit, and indy feel the same? The same diff in the models for costal make a big diff for them in a cutter. I understand this and if you thoroughly read and comprehended my post, then you would have gathered that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I gleaned all I needed or cared to from the EURO on Saturday; I don't care about the subtley of whether it tracks over Albany of Detroit....is it crucial, of coruse, but it doesn't concern me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 This still as of now, will deliver some backside snow to God's country. Maybe a dusting..maybe a few inches, I don't know..but both the gfs and euro indicate that. I think the one thing to watch is how the secondary low develops. That doesn't change the warm scenario for sne, but it could allow for snow to wrap back in a little more, futher east. Still some questions about that scenario with the second low, this applies for more central and western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 For us this is correct....but would someone in Chicago, detroit, and indy feel the same? The same diff in the models for costal make a big diff for them in a cutter. Well those folks in Chicago now hate the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I wonder if the gfs is now too far north, for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The Euro has stayed consistent on the inside runner idea since Dec 3rd, these animated gifs show that, they are 0Z runs since Dec 3rd for the Mon the 13th 0Z time frame, 5h and 8h. click to animate steve...that's pretty cool...and pretty telling. if you get bored...do the same for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 That long range EURO would have to have sne winter enthusiasts concerned about the rest of December......I mean, obviously it's far too early to seriously sweat yet, but I don't think the idea of us emerging from December in much the same manner that we emerged last March is too crazy. We'll see. Pete, I'm just bustn' balls bro......I love acting like a di** on here, but in actuality good for you if you can end as snow....treadmill time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Well those folks in Chicago now hate the gfs. The euro also gave boston a foot of snow from that clipper...after it dump 4-8 on DC..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The euro also gave boston a foot of snow from that clipper...after it dump 4-8 on DC..... What clipper was this, the d10 storm follow up? You can't use a d10 op prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 As we thought. Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah, tough to see my forecast from Box is 33F and rain for sunday night. I think I'll take rain over icing though. Chris--are you venturing out onto the pond today? I was out this morning, about 20' from the edge. There was one of the loud cracking booms off in the distance of the ice settling. No matter how thick the ice is, I always find that disconcerting. A few minutes later there was one right near me so I high tailed it off. I'ts over 3" thick so I don't think there's much to worry about. But the noise alse gives me pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 What clipper was this, the d10 storm follow up? You can't use a d10 op prog. I know....if you're seriously considering day 10 progs, then you need to have a gander at the 12z shrink. I think the EURO should be subject to more scrutiny in the main forum, but as it pertains to the SNE subforum, it accurately portrayed that character of this impending gloom last wknd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 HPC Prelim from this morning: AS A RESULT EXPECT THE MID LVL LOW CROSSING THE NORTHEAST TO STAY SOMEWHAT FARTHER SWD THAN THE GFS/GEFS MEAN. THE STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER GREENLAND SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLN. are they referencing sunday's storm or just the pattern after that in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The euro also gave boston a foot of snow from that clipper...after it dump 4-8 on DC..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 What clipper was this, the d10 storm follow up? You can't use a d10 op prog. It was def not a day 10 prog......closer then that. Where it seem like other models where consistant on tracking that way south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I know....if you're seriously considering day 10 progs, then you need to have a gander at the 12z shrink. I think the EURO should be subject to more scrutiny in the main forum, but as it pertains to the SNE subforum, it accurately portrayed that character of this impending gloom last wknd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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