I have an idea - let's start a new talking points thread

[CoastalWx]

The ukie shifted like 200 miles west. Where did everyone get the weenie goggles???

[weathafella]

The ukie shifted like 200 miles west. Where did everyone get the weenie goggles???

At that bar that used to be in TWC commercials. The name of the place was "The Front".

[Tropopause_Fold]

It gets an overall B+/A- for this. Better than any model.

it was the only piece of guidance that didn't once suggest there was even an ounce of reason to think this wasn't going to Andy's fanny.

[CoastalWx]

it was the only piece of guidance that didn't once suggest there was even an ounce of reason to think this wasn't going to Andy's fanny.

Unless we have a festivus miracle and the low goes east of us, just do what Pedro did to the Yankees.......tip your cap to the euro and call it your daddy.

[weathafella]

Unless we have a festivus miracle and the low goes east of us, just do what Pedro did to the Yankees.......tip your cap to the euro and call it your daddy.

Let's hope Daddy's drunk in the long range.

[CoastalWx]

Let's hope Daddy's drunk in the long range.

Well it probably would be cold enough verbatim, but the problem with some of the models is that they are splitting and moving some of the energy from the PV, back to the west near Hudson Bay. This tries to interact with more Pacific energy coming in and causes the storm to move ne up the OH valley. That's the only thing I worry about. The ensembles have a low offshore near the BM, but I would normally expect that at this time range. Luckily we are far out in time for this, so I'm sure we will see plenty of shifts.

[Baroclinic Zone]

The ukie went way west.

Well it didn't come as far west as the Euro was yesterday at 12z. That was on the western edge of the 12z guidance while the 12z Ukie was on the eastern egde.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Well it didn't come as far west as the Euro was yesterday at 12z. That was on the western edge of the 12z guidance while the 12z Ukie was on the eastern egde.

you can't just look at it like that though. the ec has pretty much been completely steadfast on the overall synoptic set-up and subsequent SLP tracks. sure they've varied but you never looked at the euro set-up and thought...hmmm....that's close.

[CoastalWx]

Well it didn't come as far west as the Euro was yesterday at 12z. That was on the western edge of the 12z guidance while the 12z Ukie was on the eastern egde.

What I look for in a model is consistency. When models sway 200 miles on one run, that gives me no confidence in that model. Operational models will vary a little from run to run...that is expected. So if the euro goes from the more western solution to a solution 50-70 miles east...that's within the realm of reason. The euro has shown a Hudson valley runner for days. That doesn't mean it may go east a little more, but for most of us...it probably won't mean much, unless a miracle happens.

[OSUmetstud]

Unless we have a festivus miracle and the low goes east of us, just do what Pedro did to the Yankees.......tip your cap to the euro and call it your daddy.

how does the Euro win if the storm ends up in the Hudson Valley?

[Tropopause_Fold]

how does the Euro win if the storm ends up in the Hudson Valley?

because it has always suggested this was going west of new england...regardless of the exact LP placement it never wavered in that regard.

[CoastalWx]

how does the Euro win if the storm ends up in the Hudson Valley?

It's had that all along for the most part.

[Baroclinic Zone]

you can't just look at it like that though. the ec has pretty much been completely steadfast on the overall synoptic set-up and subsequent SLP tracks. sure they've varied but you never looked at the euro set-up and thought...hmmm....that's close.

I honestly looked at the Euro 500 maps this morning and thought it came further S and E. The low was over IN 12z yesterday.

Now it's down in TN. How is this not a substantial shift in the track?

[Tropopause_Fold]

probably the most consistent player has been the ec ens.

[OSUmetstud]

It's had that all along for the most part.

not in my mind....I don't see how a low over Chicago or Detroit is an HV runner...we've seen those solutions from the Euro a few times. If you are speaking from a snow perspective....the Euro was always west...so sure it looks best on the rain vs. snow question..but I'm not sure objective model statistics will paint the Euro has the clear cut winner.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I honestly looked at the Euro 500 maps this morning and thought it came further S and E. The low was over IN 12z yesterday.

Now it's down in TN. How is this not a substantial shift in the track?

but i'm not talking about it that way bob.

[Baroclinic Zone]

It's had that all along for the most part.

For the most part is incorrect imo. The ultimate end point is roughly the same but how it got there is different. The 12z Euro run took a more NE track with the primary where the 00z run takes what looks almost due north. Sure it won't mean a lick of **** in the end but to say the Euro "track" has been steadfast is bs.

[Tropopause_Fold]

not in my mind....I don't see how a low over Chicago or Detroit is an HV runner...we've seen those solutions from the Euro a few times. If you are speaking from a snow perspective....the Euro was always west...so sure it looks best on the rain vs. snow question..but I'm not sure objective model statistics will paint the Euro has the clear cut winner.

yeah but think about it from a synoptic standpoint - if it's taking lows consistently up or west of the apps it has the upper level set-up mostly in tact...sure the track of the surface low has varied from lower lakes to ALB but it's always been a matter of exact placement of upper air features and subtle shifts therein.

other guidance, imo, you can't say that for. the ukie, for example, has often had a strong secondary (becoming primary) redeveloping over the MA. the GFS has been complete garbage developing LPs out of thin air.

[Tropopause_Fold]

For the most part is incorrect imo. The ultimate end point is roughly the same but how it got there is different. The 12z Euro run took a more NE track with the primary where the 00z run takes what looks almost due north. Sure it won't mean a lick of **** in the end but to say the Euro "track" has been steadfast is bs.

it's not like that.

[Baroclinic Zone]

but i'm not talking about it that way bob.

From a purely synoptic setup, than yes, the Euro track has always made sense.

[CoastalWx]

not in my mind....I don't see how a low over Chicago or Detroit is a HV runner like we've seen a few times from Euro equals in HV runner.l If you are speaking from a snow perspective....the Euro was always west...so sure it looks best on the rain vs. snow question..but I'm not sure objective model statistics will paint the Euro has the clear cut winner.

It had the one run over CHI and DET, but it also had a semblance of a weak low on the front...this was the run on the 7th at 00z. That was corrected on the 7/12z run. The euro has been known for burp runs and that was one of them, but overall it has pegged a track from near BUF-ALY over the last 8 days or so. It showed a inland track on 05/00z, the same time the gfs had a blizzard. So yes, while it has had a few inconsistencies from run to run, In my mind it has been overall consistent for New England. I don't care about what it means for Detroit. If you want to go further, the EC ensembles probably have been the most consistrent.

[Baroclinic Zone]

yeah but think about it from a synoptic standpoint - if it's taking lows consistently up or west of the apps it has the upper level set-up mostly in tact...sure the track of the surface low has varied from lower lakes to ALB but it's always been a matter of exact placement of upper air features and subtle shifts therein.

other guidance, imo, you can't say that for. the ukie, for example, has often had a strong secondary (becoming primary) redeveloping over the MA. the GFS has been complete garbage developing LPs out of thin air.

What is the Euro showing now as far as redevelopment? It looks like it's giving more credence to a secondary becoming the primary rather than drilling the primary over CHI.

[mahk_webstah]

how does this come so far north with a block in s greenland?

[CoastalWx]

What is the Euro showing now as far as redevelopment? It looks like it's giving more credence to a secondary becoming the primary rather than drilling the primary over CHI.

The gfs drills the primary into Toronto, but does develop that low along the coast and that becomes the dominant low as it moves into western NE. The euro has an elongated low over the Midwest, but consolidates it east of the Apps and moves nne along the front. The only thing that is funny, is that the gfs consistently has been hinting on that secondary surface low moving north and becoming the main low. It's possible the euro may trend to that...I don't know, but the 06z gfs also trended a little west towards the euro. Many times we see models come into agreement by trending toward each other.

[CoastalWx]

how does this come so far north with a block in s greenland?

The block shifted east, conveniently as Pacific energy digs in the Midwest.

[Baroclinic Zone]

how does this come so far north with a block in s greenland?

There is no west based NAO prior to the storm. It's more eastern based presently.

[Baroclinic Zone]

The gfs drills the primary into Toronto, but does develop that low along the coast and that becomes the dominant low as it moves into western NE. The euro has an elongated low over the Midwest, but consolidates it east of the Apps and moves nne along the front. The only thing that is funny, is that the gfs consistently has been hinting on that secondary surface low moving north and becoming the main low. It's possible the euro may trend to that...I don't know, but the 06z gfs also trended a little west towards the euro. Many times we see models come into agreement by trending toward each other.

This is all I am alluding to. I just thought the Eauro took more of a shift in the SLP than anything else from what I can see. Than again I am looking at the POS course maps on Ewall.

[mahk_webstah]

There is no west based NAO prior to the storm. It's more eastern based presently.

HPC Prelim from this morning:

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO EXPECT A VERY

STRONG/AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE-ERN TROF PATTERN DURING THE FIRST HALF

OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD... WITH SOME 3-5 STANDARD DEVIATION

ANOMALIES INDICATED WITH BOTH THE SRN PART OF THE ERN CONUS TROF

AND ASSOC WITH THE STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER/NEAR GREENLAND. A

TREND TOWARD FLATTER MEAN FLOW OVER THE CONUS IS FCST THRU

MIDWEEK. THIS LATE PERIOD EVOLUTION IS REASONABLY WELL SUPPORTED

BY TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE STRONG POSITIVE HGT ANOMALY

CENTERS FCST OVER OR NEAR THE CNTRL-WRN ALEUTIANS AND GREENLAND.

MEANINGFUL DETAIL DIFFS PERSIST WITH THE FCST EVOLUTION OF

SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY MON-TUE.

CONTINUING FROM THE LATTER STAGES OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD... THE

GFS IS A FAST EXTREME WITH THIS SYSTEM SO ITS SOLN IS NOT

CONSIDERED. REMAINING MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE DISPLAYED

ENOUGH RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH PRECISE DETAILS OF MID LVL

ENERGY TO FAVOR MAINTAINING A CONSENSUS/COMPROMISE SCENARIO THAT

REDUCES CONTINUITY CHANGES AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. THE MOST

AGREEABLE CLUSTER OF SOLNS INDICATES THAT THE GFS/GEFS MEAN MAY BE

A LITTLE TOO QUICK WITH THE EXPECTED FLATTENING TREND MID-LATE

PERIOD SO PREFERENCE IS TO LEAN AWAY FROM THE GFS/GEFS MEAN. AS A

RESULT EXPECT THE MID LVL LOW CROSSING THE NORTHEAST TO STAY

SOMEWHAT FARTHER SWD THAN THE GFS/GEFS MEAN. THE STRONG RIDGE

BUILDING OVER GREENLAND SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO A MORE SUPPRESSED

SOLN.

[CoastalWx]

This is all I am alluding to. I just thought the Eauro took more of a shift in the SLP than anything else from what I can see. Than again I am looking at the POS course maps on Ewall.

The euro also was the first to hint that Chicago might have ptype issues. The gfs went 400 miles north in 12 hrs, from 12z yesterday to 00z today.

[CoastalWx]

It's funny how a few ensemble members still have a coastal low tracking near the Cape. Still some confusion as to what may happen, but 12z probably will probably help nail the outcome.