moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Ray lost it last nite. Wow. Hard to believe the GFS/Ukie combo wins..If the GFS is right interior gets quite a bit of frozen. We're now in the 3 day period where we can start taking it seriously Thank God we can start taking it seriously. We only created 54 pages of posts in the 36 hours this thread has been opened when we only looked at it with mild amusement. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 My first wife's family had a lake-side home on the Tug. This is how it looks for them. There are some things from a marriage gone wrong some might miss.......... http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text *sigh* In some places it's winter ... in others, it is perpetual late fall. Looking ahead to the next system after Monday and it may not be til the following Monday. Getting pretty late for first shovelable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Ray lost it last nite. Wow. Hard to believe the GFS/Ukie combo wins..If the GFS is right interior gets quite a bit of frozen. We're now in the 3 day period where we can start taking it seriously GFS has been showing HV runner for a few days now while the Euro has taken a tour of the eastern CONUS. If it verifies, maybe you could expand that timeframe some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 *sigh* In some places it's winter ... in others, it is perpetual late fall. Looking ahead to the next system after Monday and it may not be til the following Monday. Getting pretty late for first shovelable snow. The worse part was she never wanted to go in the winter. In fact, I don't think her family ever spent time there in the winter. They just saw the home as a place to enjoy boating and other summertime leisures. Guess you can see why the marriage was doomed. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 How did the euro bow to the ukie?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The ukie went way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Long range Euro looks awful. Canada just flooded with warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Th euro ensembles have the low near Albany, and then moving ene, so verbatim maybe some backside snow for western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Long range Euro looks awful. Canada just flooded with warmth. Wasn't it depicting the dawn of a new ice-age with the 12z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Th euro ensembles have the low near Albany, and then moving ene, so verbatim maybe some backside snow for western areas. net gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Long range Euro looks awful. Canada just flooded with warmth. Yeah the big block throws back marine garbage in Canada. It does look like we get a storm around the 19th or 20th, but the storm could be a warm one as well. Th nao block weakens at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Th euro ensembles have the low near Albany, and then moving ene, so verbatim maybe some backside snow for western areas. Scott, wouldn't that also include central areas? I would think the area from ORH (the airport itself) northwestward would be in line. I guess points west of I-190? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 net gain. If you're starting at zero then yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah the big block throws back marine garbage in Canada. It does look like we get a storm around the 19th or 20th, but the storm could be a warm one as well. Th nao block weakens at the end of the run. You've read this many times, but this is so similar to last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Long range Euro looks awful. Canada just flooded with warmth. The cold has sloshed back over the pole and per this prog is not available for us. It's Murphy's Law. Fortunately it is in the d10 range and an extreme solution but there is some ensemble support. I guess the only good news is the neg AO which should bring the cold back given the near total lack of daylight in the regions depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah the big block throws back marine garbage in Canada. It does look like we get a storm around the 19th or 20th, but the storm could be a warm one as well. Th nao block weakens at the end of the run. Hopefully it's as wrong as it has been for this storm. I've said this before..but strong blocking is not good for NE snow. This could end up being one of the most frustrating periods any of have ever been thru if we end up with no snow...which is a possibility. Did the ensembles match the long range op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 If we can get that low depicted in the eastern Mediterranean area to dig more pumping up the ridge ahead of it that cold north of the pumping ridge can come back over the poll? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Hopefully it's as wrong as it has been for this storm. I've said this before..but strong blocking is not good for NE snow. This could end up being one of the most frustrating periods any of have ever been thru if we end up with no snow...which is a possibility. Did the ensembles match the long range op? Yes per anomaly chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 How did the euro bow to the ukie?? that was going to be my first post. the ukie came waaaaay west and the gfs is a giant load of poopy pants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Scott, wouldn't that also include central areas? I would think the area from ORH (the airport itself) northwestward would be in line. I guess points west of I-190? Yeah there might be...maybe even a little for eastern areas, but unfortunately I can't see precip maps from the euro ensembles....just guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Hopefully it's as wrong as it has been for this storm. I've said this before..but strong blocking is not good for NE snow. This could end up being one of the most frustrating periods any of have ever been thru if we end up with no snow...which is a possibility. Did the ensembles match the long range op? it rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 that was going to be my first post. the ukie came waaaaay west and the gfs is a giant load of poopy pants Been changing lot o'diapers?lol Everyone is worrying way too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Hopefully it's as wrong as it has been for this storm. I've said this before..but strong blocking is not good for NE snow. This could end up being one of the most frustrating periods any of have ever been thru if we end up with no snow...which is a possibility. Did the ensembles match the long range op? I was actually talking about the ensembles. Too much of a west based block, so all the cold is shoved west. We are left with seasonal temps..I even referenced this yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Been changing lot o'diapers?lol Everyone is worrying way too much. i'm not worried at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 it rules I would say it's been the worst model track wise for this storm. It's been awful shifting all over the place Now it's almost as far east as the GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The euro has been on the money. I guess everyone forgot about the blizzard the gfs portrayed 5-7 days ago, while the euro had a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I would say it's been the worst model track wise for this storm. It's been awful shifting all over the place Now it's almost as far east as the GFS lol disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The euro has been on the money. I guess everyone forgot about the blizzard the gfs portrayed 5-7 days ago, while the euro had a cutter. Disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 disagree. Disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Disagree It gets an overall B+/A- for this. Better than any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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