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I have an idea - let's start a new talking points thread


Typhoon Tip

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GFS is taking forever tonight.

I'm not even going to look at it for another 10 minutes...I'm not sure its worth it anyway. I think this will be a classic case of where the GFS gets its azz handed to it by the Euro....a big system...typical.

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I'm not even going to look at it for another 10 minutes...I'm not sure its worth it anyway. I think this will be a classic case of where the GFS gets its azz handed to it by the Euro....a big system...typical.

Probably, but for whatever reason I like to torture myself.

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The consequence of this run it would seem is to have much less robust blocking down the road as a result. Quite mundane aside from the cold next week.

:axe: :axe: :axe: :axe:

I need a break.

This run blows; I'd rather see the ski resorts torch, than see the culmination of "EPIC" be cold and dry.

Thankfully the EURO will likely continue to run it up the HV as a gale center.

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:axe: :axe: :axe: :axe:

I need a break.

This run blows; I'd rather see the ski resorts torch, than see the culmination of "EPIC" be cold and dry.

Thankfully the EURO will likely continue to run it up the HV as a gale center.

Yeah this run doesn't offer much other than skating.

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Something I've always been a little confused on. When doing some reading in the past about troughs and jet streaks I've read that you usually want to see the jet streak occur at the base of the trough, in this case it looks as if the jet streak is oriented more towards the left side of the trough. What exactly does having the jet streak at the base of the trough do/mean?

Brian summarized it well. But I just wanted to add that it is actually very uncommon to have a jet streak in the base of the trough. This is because balanced flow dictates that winds are slower than geostrophic in the trough. A lot of idealized models will show a jet streak in the base of the trough, but what is more realistic is two separate jet streaks on either side of the trough. In the lifetime of a significant system, usually you'll see the trough begin with a stronger jet streak upstream, causing it to dig, and gradually the jet intensity shifts from the west side to the east side as the trough matures.

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Brian summarized it well. But I just wanted to add that it is actually very uncommon to have a jet streak in the base of the trough. This is because balanced flow dictates that winds are slower than geostrophic in the trough. A lot of idealized models will show a jet streak in the base of the trough, but what is more realistic is two separate jet streaks on either side of the trough. In the lifetime of a significant system, usually you'll see the trough begin with a stronger jet streak upstream, causing it to dig, and gradually the jet intensity shifts from the west side to the east side as the trough matures.

Thanks for the additional info!

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