CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 That's more like it..Some positive optimism. Decent trends overnight Odds are still low for everything... but are better than when I went to bed last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Gotta love Kevin I think the odds of significant ice are pretty low. The only way this gets good is if the Euro trends more toward the UK. The odds of significant ice are higher than significant snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Nice to see the trend towards colder overnight. I wonder if this is one those rare times where the Euro gets whipped by the other models. It came hundreds of miles east. Still think tis has a chance at a pretty decent icestorm somewhere SUNDAY AND MONDAY... THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM SHOULD AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE STORM. THE MODELS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ON THE TRACK...SO NO SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS TIME. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM WILL DETERMINE PTYPE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION. THAT SAID...SINCE WE WILL BE WELL INTO DECEMBER AT THAT POINT...IT WILL PROBABLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PERIODS OF SNOW/ICE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...EVEN IF A TRACK FARTHER WEST VERIFIES. Box certainly thinks that's a distinct possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Nice to see the trend towards colder overnight. I wonder if this is one those rare times where the Euro gets whipped by the other models. It came hundreds of miles east. Still think tis has a chance at a pretty decent icestorm somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The odds of significant ice are higher than significant snow I don't think so... I don't really see a big ice setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Odds are still low for dry weenie... but are better than when I wet the bed last night. That Depends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Need to keep those developments going. Rev Kev's model of choice GFS is a big ol' nasty Grinch and has for a number of runs now been making this a HV runner. Just noticed your festive avatar addition GFS/Ukie double teaming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 SUNDAY AND MONDAY... THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM SHOULD AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE STORM. THE MODELS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ON THE TRACK...SO NO SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS TIME. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM WILL DETERMINE PTYPE AND PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION. THAT SAID...SINCE WE WILL BE WELL INTO DECEMBER AT THAT POINT...IT WILL PROBABLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PERIODS OF SNOW/ICE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...EVEN IF A TRACK FARTHER WEST VERIFIES. Box certainly thinks that's a distinct possibility. Pete--I'd be careful with that. I'm not sure BOX has updated their long-term wording in about 4 days. Seriously. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Gotta love Kevin I think the odds of significant ice are pretty low. The only way this gets good is if the Euro trends more toward the UK. Well, it did just lurch violently to the right. Much better than the expected capitulation of every other model toward the Euro. Need to keep those developments going. Rev Kev's model of choice GFS is a big ol' nasty Grinch and has for a number of runs now been making this a HV runner. Your avatar is Festive. The odds of significant ice are higher than significant snow I would think snow would be the primary frozen precip type if frozen is to be a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Euro came in colder and east and weaker..still mostly rain..but it was a huge step towards the Ukie and GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 You guys have weenie eyes. The euro didn't go much farther east. The only thing it did, is to try and develop a second low along the front that would give Pete and Mike a chance of snow at the end. Odds aren't great at all for that, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 You guys have weenie eyes. The euro didn't go much farther east. The only thing it did, as to try and develop a second low along the front that would give Pete and Mike a chance of snow at the end. Odds aren't great at all for that, but something to watch. It absolutely did come east and south THE 00Z ECMWF HAS ADJUSTED ITS TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SWD FROM A NUMBER OF PREVIOUS RUNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 You guys have weenie eyes. The euro didn't go much farther east. The only thing it did, as to try and develop a second low along the front that would give Pete and Mike a chance of snow at the end. Odds aren't great at all for that, but something to watch. You're ruining the morning coffee, Scott! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Pete--I'd be careful with that. I'm not sure BOX has updated their long-term wording in about 4 days. Seriously. lol It's actually changed a little and I think it still reflects the fact that we are a long way out and now the far western solutions are significantly East of where they were even yesterday. Detroit/Chicago vs. SYR/ALB. Regardless of what Box says I still think we make continued gains on eastablishing the snowpack here by this time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It absolutely did come east and south THE 00Z ECMWF HAS ADJUSTED ITS TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SWD FROM A NUMBER OF PREVIOUS RUNS I'm looking at it right now, it's a torch until the second low develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 You guys have weenie eyes. The euro didn't go much farther east. The only thing it did, is to try and develop a second low along the front that would give Pete and Mike a chance of snow at the end. Odds aren't great at all for that, but something to watch. Yeah what the Euro did was add in the threat for snow on the backside for western NE... maybe even parts of CT. That's more interesting than previous runs but the storm is still primarily rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It's actually changed a little and I think it still reflects the fact that we are a long way out and now the far western solutions are significantly East of where they were even yesterday. Detroit/Chicago vs. SYR/ALB. Regardless of what Box says I still think we make continued gains on eastablishing the snowpack here by this time next week. I'm hopeful, but low confidence so expectations restrained. Should a moderator lock the other thread so posts lead here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I'm looking at it right now, it's a torch until the second low develops. LOL like the 45-50F sfc temps across almost all of SNE during the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I'm looking at it right now, it's a torch until the second low develops. That 2nd low also gives areas other than Peter and Michael snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The odds of significant ice are higher than significant snow Even northern NE with no cold high to the north any ice will be fairly minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Gotta love Kevin I think the odds of significant ice are pretty low. The only way this gets good is if the Euro trends more toward the UK. i'm not sure the UK is what anyone outside of NYS wants. that solution is a driving rainstorm for all while we watch NYS get pummeled. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 LOL like the 45-50F sfc temps across almost all of SNE during the storm? Then why don't you have a 49 for the high on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Yeah what the Euro did was add in the threat for snow on the backside for western NE... maybe even parts of CT. That's more interesting than previous runs but the storm is still primarily rain. The "farther south" comment was for the Midwest. It looks the same for sensible wx, but adds a small caveat to western New England. I don't like these anafrontal solutions, but I agree it should be watched. And like i said yesterday, there should still be some frozen precip on the front end for Mike and pete, before a flip to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 That 2nd low also gives areas other than Peter and Michael snow The reverend is now sounding like an angry nun calling us by our formal names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 i'm not sure the UK is what anyone outside of NYS wants. that solution is a driving rainstorm for all while we watch NYS get pummeled. LOL. I'd rather that lol At least that gives VT a fighting shot for some snow in ski country and less of a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 That 2nd low also gives areas other than Peter and Michael snow Yeah like eastern NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Yeah like eastern NY. Misread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 You guys have weenie eyes. The euro didn't go much farther east. The only thing it did, is to try and develop a second low along the front that would give Pete and Mike a chance of snow at the end. Odds aren't great at all for that, but something to watch. Yes, yes we do. The fact that we are still 5 days out and the Euro is at least trending toward a slightly more positive solution is enough for me. Ok, I'm out to ski, nice and Wintery out this way and I think that theme, in general, continues for months to come. Sorry to say but it's looking more and more like an Interior Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Yeah like eastern NY. Litchfield County! Kevin doesn't really get any though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Looks like the clipper still on track for 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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